6 Things the Portland Trail Blazers Must Achieve During 2015
The calendar year of 2014 was big for the Portland Trail Blazers, and 2015 could be just as special, but there'll be a to-do list to check off for this Western Conference powerhouse.
The Blazers, currently sporting the second-best record in the NBA, have outdone the competition on both ends of the floor. The team's points-per-game differential of 6.9 ranks No. 3 in the league, per ESPN.com, as Portland's offense and defense is very strong.
The latter is a relatively new feature to this Blazers group, as last season's defensive output was average at best. Thus far it's been smothering and potentially historic, with this group's defensive numbers at a rate not seen in Portland for decades. The door is wide-open in terms of this team's ability to build on its surprise success and ultimate push through the playoffs a season ago.
Some goals will be more difficult to attain than others, but the strength of the players and coaching staff as a whole makes every one listed a possibility for this team. Goals vary from team to player and are ordered by importance.
While the chance at failure exists, these affirmations are a must for Portland to fulfill and reach a new level collectively. All the right pieces are there in terms of personnel and opportunity, which makes the entire process much smoother.
The Blazers just have to put their heads down, get to work and knock it out of the ballpark during 2015.
All Trail Blazers player statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted. Historic Blazers stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
Keep the Defense Steady
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This one is a little tricky.
Below are the Blazers' defensive statistics and their respective rankings league-wide, per ESPN.com:
| Points | 97.0 | No. 2 |
| FG% | 43.0 | No. 2 (tie) |
| 3PFG% | 29.2 | No. 1 |
| Rebounds | 46.6 | No.1 |
Looking at last season's marks of No. 22 in opponent points and No. 11 in both opponent field-goal and three-point percentage, there are obvious signs of improvement and a commitment to defense this year.
Portland's three-point defense in terms of opponent percentage hasn't been this strong since the 1986-87 season, per Basketball-Reference.com.
The Blazers realistically represent one of the better all-around defensive teams in the NBA. The perimeter is locked down with Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Damian Lillard, in addition to the work of Steve Blake off the bench.
But as Portland focuses on preventing long-range shots, the opposing team's ability to score in the paint is magnified. With the perimeter defenders pressuring shooters, there's a solid amount of drives and passes inside that have hindered the Blazers in spots.
According to Team Rankings, Portland checks in at No. 26 in opponent points in the paint with 45.8 per game. That's to be expected given the perimeter defense, but it's jumped to alarming totals of 64 points against the Atlanta Hawks on Jan. 3 (a loss) and the Toronto Raptors on Dec. 30 (a close, overtime victory) and a win versus the Philadelphia 76ers on Dec. 26.
It's a surefire indication of how invaluable Robin Lopez is to this team, as he's missed the past few weeks with a broken hand. He is slated to be out a further week or so, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, after he was initially ruled out for four weeks.
Once he returns, the Blazers defense should return to its usual dominance. But it's something that should be watched, as Portland can't afford to take its foot off the pedal defensively.
As the season wears on its easy to lose focus, especially considering the Blazers' destructive offense, as they can sometimes rely on it too heavily.
Portland's wins start at the three-point line, routinely converting while limiting its opponents' success in that area. Per ESPN.com, the Blazers lead the NBA in three-point percentage differential at plus-8.6 percent, coming in second in made three-point field-goal differential at plus-5.1 per game.
Continuing that defensive pressure is a major commitment, but it must be achieved if Portland wishes to continue its streak as a Western Conference power.
It'd be surprising to see this team suddenly fall apart defensively, so it isn't a fluke on that end of the floor so far. But this is truly the first season that this group has put together an imposing all-around defensive game plan, and it has to be continued to become an automatic habit.
There have been lapses to this point, but the Blazers have been talented enough to erase those errors. Come-from-behind wins have become almost second nature for Portland, with defense the major factor in the comebacks.
That won't always work down the stretch, and the Blazers need to put their defensive stamp on the game from the tipoff. Portland is already dominating opponents on both ends and just has to continue throughout the year.
It won't be easy.
Damian Lillard Must Become a Top-10 Scorer
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As with Portland's defense, this one is already a reality and therefore complicated.
Lillard currently ranks No. 10 in scoring per game, averaging 22.2 points on 46 percent shooting. He's knocked down a total of 97 three-point field goals on the season to the tune of 2.8 per contest on 39.3 percent shooting.
Lillard has already gone off for two 40-point games: He had 43 points and routinely made crucial plays in a triple-overtime matchup against the San Antonio Spurs on Dec. 15 and went for 40 points with 11 assists (and this gem) in an overtime victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Dec. 23. Lillard went 8-for-12 from beyond the arc in the latter contest.
He closely missed a third 40-point night, scoring 39 points on 57.1 percent shooting against the Lakers on Jan. 5.
Yeah, the kid is big-time.
So while he's essentially completed this component already, he has to be consistent through 2015.
The Blazers offense is built on a free-flowing exchange of passes and cuts, looking for opportunities and taking advantage. Lillard has rarely, if ever, gone outside of Portland's offense and forced the issue. This team never had a go-to scorer outside of Aldridge the last few seasons.
The All-Star point guard hit his fair share of big shots last season (looking at you, Houston), but Lillard didn't have the consistent flair to take it himself and score. He converted 44.7 percent of his two-point field goals a year ago, but that's up to 51.1 percent so far.
His improved scoring has changed the culture of this Portland team, as it now has two top-10 scorers who can carry the offense.
Lillard must keep it up to close out the year, as it'll be a major turning point for the Blazers, not only throughout the season but during the playoffs as well. His shooting and ability to drive make him difficult to guard.
You guys know what time it is.
Stay Healthy, Improve the Bench
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Batum hasn't been the only one riddled with injuries.
To this point, Batum, Aldridge, Lopez, Joel Freeland, C.J. McCollum and Will Barton have missed time in one way or another. Whether it's been a broken hand, a separated shoulder, a bum knee, a broken finger or a virus, the injury bug hasn't been kind.
It hasn't affected the Blazers too much though, as their 27-8 record would indicate a much healthier team. Aside from the uptick in opponent points in the paint due to RoLo's absence, the Blazers have been able to weather the storm and continue winning games.
Injury isn't exactly a controllable or foreseeable aspect of the game, but it's imperative the Blazers do their best to stay healthy going forward, especially into the stretch run to the playoffs. One way Portland can do monitor its health is giving the reserves more minutes, thereby prohibiting the starters from overexerting their bodies and risking harm.
The only problem is the bench, while improving, isn't quite strong enough to provide help on a consistent basis.
Freeland filled in admirably for Lopez through the rest of December, averaging 5.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocks as the staring center, all the while providing terrific defense in the middle. His work on Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry down the stretch in Portland's overtime victory was essential to the final result, as he blocked game-tying attempts on several occasions.
Kaman and Blake have worked well despite their age, with Dorell Wright being a very reliable veteran even with inconsistent playing time. But the young players, namely McCollum, Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson, haven't developed to the point that their play is regular or continually effective.
If the reserve unit was, as any team hopes, routinely efficient, any player missing time could be mostly accounted for. It's an unfair assessment to make in one regard, as replacing Lopez's defensive presence or Batum's all-around contribution is difficult and almost impossible.
The bench has answered the call in spurts, but not nearly consistent enough that Portland's health isn't a glaring concern. That could be said of any team, but the Blazers' reliance on certain contributions makes keeping injuries at bay a team-changing concept.
It's been worse thus far than all of last season in terms of players missing time, but Portland's 2015 can hopefully be mostly injury-free.
It has to be.
Nicolas Batum Needs to Find His Groove
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This season hasn't been smooth for Nicolas Batum.
He's been hit with a number of injuries, ranging from a sore wrist to his right knee requiring Platelet Rich Plasma therapy. Per Joe Freeman of The Oregonian:
"According to a source with knowledge of Batum's injury and treatment, the Trail Blazers' starting small forward spent last Monday in a Vancouver doctor's office receiving two rounds of PRP injections in his right knee. The nonsurgical procedure, which first became well known in Portland during the Brandon Roy era, is a process that involves extracting a patient's blood, running it through a centrifuge -- which separates red blood cells from platelets -- and re-injecting the resulting fluid into the injured area, in this case Batum's right knee.
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As a result, Batum is enduring one of the worst seasons of his seven-year NBA career.
His 9.4 points are the fewest since his rookie days in 2008-09, with his 4.9 rebounds and 4.7 assists last being as scarce during 2012-13. Batum's three-point percentage has dropped to an abysmal 26.9 percent, including a stretch of five games through December where he shot a combined 5-of-26 from beyond the arc.
His play has been much more promising through his last five games, as he is averaging 13.6 points on 51 percent and 42.9 percent shooting from the field and from long range, respectively. It's encouraging, but it must continue for the rest of 2015.
Batum is one of the better all-around players in the NBA but isn't quite the same weapon for the Blazers when his offense sputters.
His passing and ball-handling allows Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews to run off the ball as shooters, the greatest asset of both guards, which spaces the floor for Portland's offense. In doing so, Batum can play the pick-and-roll game with Lopez and LaMarcus Aldridge, and even Chris Kaman off the bench.
If Lillard or another guard is handling the ball, Batum can double as a potent offensive threat, either as a shooter or cutting to the rim.
He must get back to being that player for Portland.
The Blazers are still a very good team, even with him struggling, but he is the key to pushing this group to the next level.
Batum must find his groove in 2015 and get back to being a scoring option. It's more a need to rediscover his aggression when the opportunity arises, as Portland needs that additional scorer to slot alongside Lillard, Aldridge and Matthews.
Keep the Gang Together
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At the close of the 2014-15 NBA season, the Blazers will see a number of key players become unrestricted free agents. It’s a must that general manager Neil Olshey and the front office keep this team together.
Aldridge, Matthews and Lopez headline Portland’s free-agent class, followed by Robinson and Wright, while Blake has a player option for next year. Barton, Freeland and Victor Claver are restricted free agents.
For obvious reasons, it’s ideal that the first three players return. Aldridge, the Blazers’ No. 2 all-time scorer and career leader in defensive rebounds, should be the focal point of the offseason (thanks, genius).
His importance to the franchise goes without saying, as Aldridge is one of the best offensive frontcourt players in the NBA. He’s arguably the top power forward in all of basketball, providing scoring, rebounding, passing and defense that is crucial to Portland's success.
He’s already stated his desire to return, per Freeman of The Oregonian:
"I’m happy to stay, happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two. [Not signing an extension] has no impact on my interest in staying in Portland. I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that’s the best decision on my part. I want to be the best Blazer — ever. If I stay the rest of my career, I should be able to catch Clyde by then. I should be able to leave a mark on a big-time franchise that is going to be seen forever. And I will be able to say I played here my whole career. This city has embraced me and grown with me. I have so much history, it just makes sense to stay.
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Breathe a tentative sigh of relief, Rip City.
Matthews hasn’t been as explicit in his intentions, but the fiercely competitive marksman would be foolish to turn Portland away.
There isn’t an NBA team that can offer him as much as the Blazers, as he has a cemented starting spot, a very forthright role in the offense and a soon-to-be piece of Blazers history to his name.
At this point in time, Matthews has swished through 759 three-point field goals for Portland, trailing Terry Porter, the all-time leader, by only 14 made shots. Knowing his prowess from beyond the arc, he may very well reach that mark in the next two or three games, so keep tabs on it.
Some teams will absolutely throw money Matthews’ way in hope of securing his services, but he’s a perfect fit for this group. He has a fortified role, is a part of a winning culture and is simply adored by the fanbase.
Why leave?
The same can be said for Lopez, who has fit in seamlessly with the city and team. His physical and hustling style of play is perfect for the Blazers in the paint, and he connects effortlessly with fans.
Per Freeman, Lopez shed some light on his plan in free agency, saying “I really love it here. I feel like I've really found a niche. Nothing is set in stone, but I'm comfortable here, I'm happy here.”
His teammates have raved about him, with Lillard calling him “selfless” and saying that Lopez “always puts other people before himself.” Aldridge continued the high praise:
"He's so unselfish and it just rubs off on everybody. The fact that he goes out every night and doesn't care about shots and things like that, it just makes guys play harder and want to be like him. He's definitely the key to the chemistry in our starting lineup, because he doesn't care about shots or even stats, he just wants to win.
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Once again, it’s a situation of one party adoring the other and vice versa, which raises the question of why they would want to go separate ways. Lopez fits in Portland, both as a player and a person, and has provided the Blazers with everything they missed prior to his arrival.
It should be the front office's top priority to retain the services of all three, before anything or anyone else. Some big-name players will be available on the open market, but the Blazers are all about being overachievers.
The chemistry and comradery this group has built together is understated, as few NBA teams can boast as much from its starting lineup. Each player knows his role, is terrific at it and is competitive to a fault until the final buzzer sounds.
Get it done, Olshey.
Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson Must Develop
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Both Leonard and Robinson came into the league together and have had similar beginnings to their NBA careers. At this stage they’re both underdeveloped prospects with a wealth of potential at their disposal but have yet to fully tap into it.
It must happen in 2015.
Leonard has taken a vastly different approach to his game this season, playing as a shooter offensively as opposed to a physical player in the post. It’s worked pleasantly, with the 7’1” center shooting 47.8 percent from beyond the arc. Through 13 games, he’s put up 4.4 points and 3.6 rebounds, playing to his strengths without going outside of his capabilities.
Leonard had 12 points and 12 rebounds against the Los Angeles Lakers on Jan. 5, converting three of four three-point attempts which included a late four-point play that demoralized the opposing defense.
When he’s seen the court, Leonard has shown more and more development as the season has gone by. He looks more confident in his abilities, no longer hesitating on shots, passes or boxing out for rebounds. Big men have a penchant for developing at a slower rate than guards, and Leonard is no exception.
His style of play is unorthodox to be sure, as someone of his size is normally a rough-and-tumble player in the paint. Leonard fills that role defensively but is more prone to spacing the floor offensively. He’s extremely raw on that end of the floor and still needs to add some moves in the post.
He doesn’t necessarily have to post up and go inside, though a turnaround jumper or hook shot could work wonders for his game.
But hey, one step at a time.
Robinson, on the other hand, has still been largely inconsistent this season. He had a promising game against the Milwaukee Bucks on Dec. 17, with 15 points and 16 rebounds. He had 12 points against the New Orleans Pelicans two games later but hasn’t been able to replicate what has made Leonard so effective so far.
Robinson will try and do too much instead of just sticking to what he does best. He has been an effective rebounder, ranking No. 5 among power forwards in the NBA in rebound rate, per ESPN’s Hollinger stats.
His 18.9 rebound rate has him ahead of players regularly praised for their work on the boards, such as the Denver Nuggets’ Kenneth Faried or the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Kevin Love. Given the evidence, Robinson can be a force on the glass if he puts his mind to it.
But too regularly does he force the issue offensively, as his turnover rate of 23.9 leads all players so far, per ESPN.com. That may very well fluctuate over the course of the year, but Robinson’s rate is the highest in the NBA since the 2011-12 season.
It may have more to do with freeing up cap space for free agency than anything to do with Robinson, but the Blazers declined to exercise his $4.7 million option for next season, per Freeman. As he becomes an unrestricted free agent, he’ll need to exhibit more to tempt Portland to extend his stay or for another team to reach out.
Robinson, much like a few players on this team, is a fan favorite due to his style of play. His athleticism and hustle inside draws cheers from the crowd and praise for his efforts to maintain possessions or stop those of the other team. That should be his role in a nutshell, but Robinson routinely goes outside his area without any success.
Players have built their careers in such roles, such as the immortal Dennis Rodman or NBA journeyman Reggie Evans. Robinson can be a huge part of this team, or any team for that matter, since an all-out rebounder can change games.
Both Leonard and Robinson need to show their commitment to development in 2015. The former has already done so to a certain extent, or at least enough to become a useful piece in the rotation. Leonard’s player efficiency rating of 15.7 dwarfs Robinson’s 7.9, as the latter player still has a way to go.
T-Rob absolutely has the talent and the right approach; he just needs to stop trying so hard. Credit is due to the big man for his work ethic and desire to prove he belongs in the NBA, but he must break bad habits to be a significant part of the Blazers going forward.
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