Pros and Cons of Indiana Pacers Pushing for 2015 Playoff Berth
As of games played on Thursday, Jan. 1, the Indiana Pacers have the 11th-best record in the Eastern Conference. Yet they still find themselves just two games behind the Miami Heat for the last playoff slot. The question is whether making the playoffs is an appropriate goal for this team, in this season.
The Pacers' playoff calculus changed entirely when Paul George suffered a severe leg injury at the beginning of August. The prognosis at that point was missing, at the very least, this entire season. Without their best player, this team is simply not a championship contender.
However, the rest of the Pacers core is certainly good enough to keep them in the playoff hunt. They are currently sitting outside the playoff picture mostly because of a slew of additional injuries to David West, George Hill and C.J. Watson.
Everyone is now healthy, and the decision-making rubber has to hit the road. Should the Pacers be willing to sacrifice some of their short-term for a better long-term? What are the pros and cons of pushing for the playoffs and their present?
Pros
Avoiding the playoffs and finding yourself at the top of the lottery is not as easy as it sounds. With the majority of their roster healthy, the Pacers' talent and competitive spirit is going to keep them in the picture.
Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star reported on an August press conference right after George's injury, where Larry Bird explicitly stated that making the playoffs was still the plan, saying, "Have our expectations lowered any? I don't think so. I think we'll compete hard and do our best to make the playoffs; that's always one of our goals. I can sit up here and sugarcoat it all you want me to, but you just can't replace Paul George."
One of the biggest advantages the Pacers have had over the past few seasons is continuity. Their core of Hill, West, George and Roy Hibbert has had multiple seasons to grow together. Their masterful execution on defense is partially a product of the synergy of collective experience.
Making the playoffs this season allows the Pacers an opportunity to keep pushing things forward with the same positive goals they've always had. A series-worth of playoff experience could be huge for the integration and growth of pieces like Solomon Hill and C.J. Miles. Those are players the Pacers could be relying on as key bench contributors for a championship run next year.
In addition, a goal of making the playoffs actually allows the Pacers to keep their core together. A desire to ensure a slot in the lottery would almost certainly mean trading West, Hill or Hibbert in a deal that brought back future value as opposed to present value.
If the goal next season is to return a healthy George and pick up where they left off, hopefully with a deeper and more experienced bench, then the Pacers need to keep doing things the way they've always done them: Keep fighting and scratching for every win. Keep building good habits of communication and collaboration that allow their system to be as effective as possible.
Cons
There are some obvious problems with the plan of picking up where they left off next season. While the Pacers are muddling through this year, much of the Eastern Conference has leaped past them.
The Milwaukee Bucks, Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks are all teams on the rise. The Toronto Raptors have been riding a wave of their own continuity. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls have each arranged huge infusions of talent. Even with Paul George back, the Pacers may find that their talent level has slipped relative to their competition.
The second problem is that George's return at full strength next season is not a foregone conclusion. We've seen countless players suffer catastrophic injuries and take a season or more after returning to "full health" to recover the extraordinary parts of their games.
Making the playoffs this season means missing out on an opportunity to immediately add talent to this team.
Nat Newell of the Indianapolis Star laid out the case for the Pacers tanking their way into the lottery right before the season began:
"That's not how the NBA works. Teams are in this to win championships, and finding the extra 2 percent, Moneyball tactics, market inefficiencies ... none of it leads to championships in the NBA like it can in baseball and football. If you can't win 60 games, win 20. And without Paul George, the Pacers aren't winning 60 games.
The NBA is about one thing: stars. And there are two ways to acquire stars: free agency and getting lucky in the draft. Kevin Durant isn't coming to Indy in 2016. But the higher the Pacers pick in the draft, the better their odds are of landing a star.
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The Pacers' championship window with this core could be closing. West is approaching the twilight of his career. Both he and Hibbert have player options for next season, which they will likely pick up. Hibbert may be extended beyond that, but next year could be West's last with the Pacers.
The only players currently on the books for 2016-17 are Miles, Hill and George, along with team options for Solomon Hill and Damjan Rudez. At some point in the near future, the Pacers will need to dramatically remake their roster. A lottery pick could really speed the process along.
Right now the Pacers would have the eighth pick in the draft, and with that a chance at selecting a player who could help them next season as well as be a foundational piece for the future.
We're only partway through the college basketball season, but this draft class already looks dynamic. In fact, according to Layne Vashro's draft projection models, the Average Expected Win Peak of the projected top 10 picks in this draft class is much higher than that of the previous four.
There are no easy answers for the Pacers. Going all in on the present, or trying to gain an advantage for the future, are both gambles. Within each strategy there are smaller nested gambles—staying healthy, avoiding player regression, getting the right matchups, appropriately evaluating draft prospects.
The best this team, and its fans, can hope for is an honest evaluation of each path, with a thorough examination of the pros and cons on each side.
Both the present and future of this organization is on the line.
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