Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: Complete Week 17 Preview for New England
Regardless of what the players and Bill Belichick preach, the result of the New England Patriots' Week 17 game is meaningless. Mathematically, it is impossible to suggest that Sunday's outcome against the Buffalo Bills makes any difference to the Pats' ultimate Super Bowl aspirations.
However, that does not make the process meaningless, as several issues have cropped up over the past month. While it was never realistic to expect the Pats to continue blowing out quality opponents by three touchdowns every week as they did midseason, it is reasonable to feel perturbed by some of the consistent problems that have emerged recently.
From the offensive line's pass protection issues to the coverage of opposing tight ends, the Patriots are not an infallible team. When the margin for error shrinks against elite competition in January, New England's regular-season resume becomes irrelevant.
Thus, with the game's outcome being secondary, the majority of this preview will focus on those who may represent solutions to those problems, as well as some of the more intriguing players who could see extended playing time on Sunday. Read on to see what Patriots fans should focus on in the regular-season finale.
Patriots Week 16 Recap
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New England's 17-16 win over the New York Jets was arguably the Patriots' toughest victory of the season. The Jets dictated the game's rhythm the entire way, holding a five-minute edge in time of possession while staying even in the turnover battle.
Gang Green's success started in the trenches, particularly through its ability to stifle the running game and force Tom Brady into clear passing downs, where Rex Ryan's byzantine blitz schemes wreaked havoc on the offensive line. The left side was particularly poor, as left guard Josh Kline was eventually benched for Cameron Fleming, with Ryan Wendell shifting across from the right side.
Not having steady veteran Dan Connolly certainly hurt, but the Pats have been trending in this direction. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), New England's 75.6 percent pass-blocking efficiency over the past month ranks 27th in the league. Conversely, when the Pats thrived between Weeks 5 and 12, the line's 84.2 percent efficiency ranked fourth.
The Pats have also had issues getting after the quarterback without blitzing, though Chandler Jones did come up with some timely pressures (i.e., the Geno Smith interception). That's a personnel-related issue that's likely to persist throughout the season, but there are ways to scheme around it. For instance, Dont'a Hightower's critical fourth-quarter sack that pushed the Jets out of field-goal range came off a B-gap blitz look the Pats had never shown before.
The Buffalo Bills possess the same ability to dominate in the trenches, particularly on defense. Unlike New York, the Bills also have the perimeter talent on both sides of the ball to exploit that initial advantage, presenting another level of difficulty for the Patriots.
News and Notes
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To Rest or Not to Rest?
The dominant storyline around Foxborough this week has been the amount of playing time (or lack thereof) the Patriots starters might see. While Bill Belichick and Brady have been tight-lipped, The Boston Globe's Ben Volin suggests that the game could have a third preseason contest type of feel:
"I think that means we’ll see a mix of some starters playing a half or even three quarters to stay sharp, and some injured or injury-prone players taking a seat. I bet Brady plays a half, and then Jimmy Garoppolo will take over in the second half. I would expect Rob Gronkowski to sit out the entire game, given his history. I think anyone with an injury will probably sit — Blount, Hightower, Edelman, Connolly — and I would probably take Revis and Browner out of the game sooner than later, too.
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The only scenario that would really be disastrous would be something reminiscent of the 2009 finale, in which Wes Welker tore his ACL. The Welker injury was obviously the lowlight, but people also forget Belichick's bizarre substitution pattern, in which he briefly pulled Brady before putting him back out in crunch time to take more punishment from the Houston Texans.
Avoiding injury will stem from random chance, but Belichick is well in control of how he deploys his starters. It shouldn't be difficult to construct a plan that gives the starters an appropriate amount of work while protecting them from a greater risk of injury, but we've seen the Patriots have issues with this before.
O-Line Carousel
The Pats have been settled on their starting offensive line combination since Week 5. However, the lack of depth really scrambles the rotation when even one starter is unavailable, as was the case last week with Dan Connolly at left guard. After New England struggled to unlock the combination that could slow down the Jets front seven, ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss suggested that those woes may have stemmed from the coaches messing around with first-half substitutions:
"When a unit is struggling like the offensive line was, moving players around when the sixth offensive lineman is a big part of the plan seems like it's making life harder on yourself without having to. Why not just put Fleming into the game in those situations? They ended up needing Fleming at right guard when Josh Kline was benched at halftime, so perhaps they would have been forced into that situation regardless, but I endorse the line of thinking that maybe they got a little too cute with the initial plan.
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Cameron Fleming had served as the sixth offensive lineman in "Jumbo" packages and seemed poised to do so upon returning from his injury. However, the Pats instead shifted left tackle Nate Solder out as the eligible tight end, with Marcus Cannon subbing in for Solder. Due to NFL rules, Cannon had to remain in for at least one play before Solder could return to left tackle, which often left the Pats offensive line constantly shifting between personnel.
This isn't to suggest that Cannon is a significantly inferior option to Fleming, who finished with a minus-2.8 overall grade, the lowest among all Pats offensive linemen. However, considering that continuity was a significant issue early in the season, it's safe to say that the Pats should avoid shuffling around a smorgasbord of backups when they do need to mix up their starting O-line.
Defense Looking for Takeaways
The Patriots have traditionally been one of the best teams in the league in terms of turnover margin. During the Brady-Belichick era, New England's turnover differential is an obscene plus-153, nearly twice as high as the next best team during that time span. However, the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe notes that the team's recent playoff history suggests that a lack of takeaways could be problematic:
"It’s even more important in the playoffs, as any mistake could ultimately decide a season. The Pats are 12-1 in the playoffs since 2001 when forcing at least two turnovers, with the 2009 blowout loss to the Ravens as the exception. Conversely, the Patriots are 5-3 when forcing a single turnover and 1-4 when they don’t have a takeaway. The lone victory was the Snow Bowl against the Raiders.
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The Pats are still thriving overall, with a plus-11 margin that is tied for third-best in the league. But they've forced just six turnovers in the past six games, which ranks tied for 23rd in that span. Howe's sentiment does have some validity, based on the playoff turnover margins of the last 10 Super Bowl champs:
New England's defense has been fine even without the takeaways, conceding just 16.3 points per game in that span, the fourth-best mark in the league. Still, the margin for error against the likes of the Jets and Miami Dolphins is significantly larger than it would be against the Denver Broncos or Pittsburgh Steelers, making turnovers a much greater point of contention.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Danny Aiken | LS | Questionable |
| Kyle Arrington | CB | Questionable |
| LeGarrette Blount | RB | Questionable |
| Brandon Browner | CB | Questionable |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Questionable |
| Dan Connolly | OG | Questionable |
| Julian Edelman | WR | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT/OG | Questionable |
| Jonas Gray | RB | Out |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Questionable |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Questionable |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | Questionable |
| Rob Ninkovich | DE | Questionable |
| Shane Vereen | RB | Questionable |
| Sebastian Vollmer | OT | Questionable |
| Chris White | LB | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
A trio of new names joined the injury report this week in Brandon Browner, Jonas Gray and Jamie Collins. Browner (groin) and Collins (hip) were fixtures on the injury report earlier this season with ankle and thigh issues, respectively, so in some respects, it's encouraging that neither has reaggravated that old injury. Though Gray has already been ruled out, none of the three players' maladies are seen as serious, so these are likely just maintenance issues.
The quartet of injured starters who sat out last week—Edelman, Connolly, Arrington and Blount—figure to sit out again this Sunday with nothing left to play for. Similarly, players like Hightower and LaFell, who have been on this report for weeks, might see limited workloads against Buffalo.
Indeed, players who have been healthy scratches the entire season, like Alfonzo Dennard and James White, might finally break through and receive some meaningful playing time in the season finale. It probably won't result in an increased postseason role, but the Pats will likely stretch to the depths of their 53-man roster this week.
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Left Interior vs. Kyle Williams
As alluded to earlier, the left side of the New England line had a difficult first half against one of the NFL's elite interior rushers in Sheldon Richardson. This week, center Bryan Stork and whoever starts at left guard will face an equally difficult challenge in All-Pro defensive tackle Kyle Williams.
Williams does not have Richardson's sack numbers, with a relatively modest 5.5 on the season by his standards. However, with 48 total pressures on just 386 pass-rushing snaps, Williams actually leads all defensive tackles this season in pass-rushing productivity. Only Detroit's Ndamukong Suh has more total pressures (54), but Suh has had 124 more rushes at the quarterback than Williams.
In the first meeting, the Pats were quite successful in containing Williams, holding him to just a single pressure on Tom Brady. Ryan Wendell was particularly impressive in posting a plus-1.1 pass-blocking grade as the starting center that day, helping double-team Williams when Jordan Devey had to come in for an injured Connolly.
Once again, Connolly could be out with an assortment of nicks and bruises, which would likely leave the same starting line that finished last week's game. In that instance, it would be up to Wendell and Stork to ensure that Williams does not generate the same consistent pressure that wrecked the offense's rhythm last Sunday.
Patrick Chung vs. Scott Chandler
Pats fans will likely groan at this matchup, which looks like a serious advantage for Buffalo on paper. Chandler has separated himself as a Patriots killer in recent seasons. He posted a career-high 105 receiving yards on six catches back in Week 6 against New England, consistently shredding the Pats down the seams even as the defense switched up its assignments on the tight end.
In his career, Chandler has compiled more targets, catches, yards and touchdowns against the Pats than any other team. Since he became Buffalo's semi-regular starting tight end in 2011, no opposing tight end has come close to inflicting the same amount of damage against New England.
Based on the Patriots' recent usage patterns, Patrick Chung figures to draw the primary assignment on Chandler. Chung has settled in as a three-down hybrid safety-linebacker for the Pats, but his early-season improvements in pass coverage have since regressed to the mean a bit. Over the past month, Chung has had his two worst coverage games against the Jets and Green Bay Packers, allowing seven catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns in those contests.
Opposing offenses have experienced success getting Chung to bite on play action in recent weeks. Buffalo almost never utilizes play fakes with Orton, as his 13.7 percent play-action percentage is the third-lowest in the league this season. However, based on Chung's film, expect the Bills to test the safety's discipline while also hoping to utilize Chandler's size advantage to exploit the Pats down the middle of the field.
Danny Amendola vs. Corey Graham
Buffalo's defense does not have many weaknesses, but with Leodis McKelvin out for the season, the cornerback slot opposite Stephon Gilmore has been an issue. Based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics, Buffalo ranks in the top five against No. 1 receivers, tight ends and running backs in coverage but just 21st against No. 2 receivers.
With the Patriots primarily relying on 12 personnel now (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB), Amendola figures to draw the assignment from Graham. The ex-Baltimore Raven has generally been a solid free-agent pickup for the Bills, but he's allowed 14 catches for 176 yards the past four weeks after conceding 18 receptions for 134 the first 12 weeks combined.
That's likely a byproduct of the increased responsibilities for Graham, who was primarily a rotational outside corner and/or dime safety the first half of the season. I talked more about Amendola's usage in the Pats offense earlier this week, and assuming Julian Edelman sits out again with his concussion and thigh issues, Amendola should get a chance to build on his season-best showing against the Jets.
In general, the Pats figure to attack Graham in their game plan, whether through Amendola or wide split tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and Tim Wright. Pass protection is the foremost focus this week, but if that holds up, there should be passing windows for Brady (or Jimmy Garoppolo).
X-Factor: Shane Vereen
Vereen's diminishing role within the offense has been curious. The fourth-year back has received the most snaps in New England's backfield committee in five consecutive games, but in that span, he has received the most touches in a single game just once. In fact, Vereen has had single-digit touches in four consecutive games.
Though he'll likely never turn into a three-down back, it's curious to see Vereen's decline in the passing game. Over the last month, he has been targeted a grand total of 11 times. After posting 1.31 yards per route run over the first 13 weeks, that number has slipped to 0.85 yards per route run in the last month, which is 27th among backs (minimum 25 percent of snaps).
This Sunday would seemingly be a good time to reintegrate Vereen into the offense before the postseason. Not only will interior running space be difficult to find for Jonas Gray and LeGarrette Blount, but Vereen has also had a history of success against Buffalo. In five career games against the Bills, he averages 4.2 yards per attempt and 9.2 yards per catch.
Vereen compiled just seven total yards in the first meeting against the Bills, as the Pats found more success attacking downfield with Brandon LaFell and the tight ends. This time, with Vereen again likely to see the most running back snaps, let's see if the offense unleashes a proven, versatile weapon who has largely been under wraps the past month.
Prediction
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Predicting the exact outcome is always a bit of a fool's errand (hence the bizarre score predictions in this section every week). That holds true this week, given the total uncertainty surrounding the Patriots' plans.
Belichick has always been able to keep his team's focus razor sharp, and that will likely remain true this Sunday. Even if the substitutes play a significant portion of this game, the Patriots will not mail anything in against a game Bills squad. The last time New England had nothing seeding-wise to play for in Week 17, the Pats still rolled against the Miami Dolphins.
That's not to suggest that Buffalo will suffer a similar fate, and even if the Pats go all out, a victory is far from a foregone conclusion. With the Patriots likely to sit some of their banged-up starters, it will be tough for those who do suit up to stake out to an early lead.
As such, it would hardly be surprising to see the Bills take their first game at Gillette Stadium. Regardless, so long as the Patriots come out of the game unscathed in the health department, that will represent the most important win of the day.
Prediction: Bills 22, Patriots 18
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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