Predicting NBA All-Star Rosters After First Quarter of 2014-15 Season
A quarter of the NBA season is behind us, which means it's time to look ahead to the league's de facto halfway point: the 2015 NBA All-Star Game.
The number of worthy candidates for the annual February exhibition is mind-boggling—especially out West. Maybe this year really is no different than any other, but it sure feels like the snubs are going to sting a little extra this season.
There's still time for performances to level off, regression to happen naturally and, unfortunately, injuries to crop up and thin the herd. But as it stands now, players enjoying truly elite seasons are going to have to settle for reserve roles. By extension, guys who'd normally be assured a backup spot will be left off the roster altogether.
Those are the breaks.
And these are the rules, which you probably know: Each conference gets two backcourt starters, three frontcourt starters and seven reserves. With the voting pool expanding to include every player in the league (until this season, voters could only pick from a pre-selected group) and more ways to cast ballots than ever, this year's All-Star rosters will be the most reflective of the fans' desires in history.
Remember, All-Star starters are who fans want to watch, not necessarily which players deserve the nods based on performance. The backups will be selected by coaches, who tend to value production over reputation.
Here's who we expect to be involved on Feb. 15 at Madison Square Garden.
East Backcourt Starter: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
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2014-15 Statistics: 17.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks
Derrick Rose hasn't been Derrick Rose for more than the occasional "did you see that?" flash this season.
The guy wearing his jersey nowadays has generally spent more time firing away from distance than charging headlong toward the bucket. According to Basketball-Reference.com, nearly 40 percent of his field-goal attempts have come from three-point range while only 22.7 percent have come at the rim.
Both percentages are the most extreme of Rose's career.
This new version of Rose is inarguably worse than the old one, but he's still a pretty darn good player.
Plus, fans showered the fourth-most votes among East guards on him last year…when he played just 10 games. Rose is playing decent ball, which, combined with the Chicago Bulls looking dangerous and widespread fan support, will add up to a starting spot.
Most importantly, the flashes of old-school Rose are increasing in frequency. Rose dropped 31 points in a 115-106 win against the Portland Trail Blazers on Dec. 12—his highest total since March 12, 2012.
"We all feel that he's going to be back to the same guy that he was," Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau said, per Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com. "He's going step by step. He's got to keep building, keep attacking; when he's aggressive like that there's no one like him."
With a few more efforts like that, perhaps Rose will deserve the starting spot fans seem likely to give him.
East Backcourt Starter: Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
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2014-15 Statistics: 21.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.5 blocks
Quietly, Dwyane Wade has been as good this year as he was at any point in the last four seasons. A hamstring injury cost him seven games in November, but he's been healthy otherwise. In eight December games, he's averaged 21.6 points on 51.1 percent shooting—Wade-like stats to be sure.
It's been somewhat surprising that Wade has suited up on the second night of back-to-back sets five times this year as well—especially after taking such a liberal approach to rest last season. On those second nights, Wade has still posted a solid 18.8 points per game.
The days of never-ending 30-point nights and nonstop trips to the foul line are gone, but Wade remains an efficient star—one fans voted for over 929,000 times last season, more than any other guard in the East.
He'll get that starting spot again this year.
East Frontcourt Starter: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
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2014-15 Statistics: 25.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.7 blocks
Unless a convenient injury crops up, giving LeBron James an excuse to sit out the contest, the past and present Cleveland Cavaliers megastar will start his 11th All-Star Game in a row this February.
Nobody got more votes than James did last year, and even though his numbers have taken an efficiency dip this season, fans are still going to stuff the ballot box. With absolutely zero question that James will be a starter in New York, the only real concern is whether his admittedly diminished athleticism will hurt his value as a high-flying All-Star entertainer.
"I'm still out there making plays," James told reporters after dropping 41 points on the New Orleans Pelicans Dec. 12, via Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com. "My athleticism, obviously I'm not the 18-year-old kid that I was before. But I can still do the things I need to do to be successful."
But nobody wants to see pinpoint skip passes or fading leaners from the baseline in the All-Star Game.
Hopefully, James is just saving up his springs until February.
East Frontcourt Starter: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
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2014-15 Statistics: 21.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.8 blocks
In good news for fans of the Miami Heat's disbanded Big Three, Chris Bosh will rejoin James and Wade for a one-game reunion in February.
Bosh has predictably thrived as a lead dog for the Heat this year, proving to everyone that his reduced production over the past four seasons happened by choice. With James gone, Bosh is flexing his superstar muscles, posting a 22.5 player efficiency rating despite a career-high usage rate of 28.9.
Best of all, he's retained the developments that were required of him when he was filling a limited role for the James-era Heat. Bosh is hitting a frightening 38.6 percent of his 3.8 triple attempts per game.
This will be Bosh's 10th consecutive All-Star appearance.
East Frontcourt Starter: Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
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2014-15 Statistics: 23.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks
Starting the All-Star Game will be a mixed blessing for Carmelo Anthony.
With the way the 2014-15 New York Knicks have cratered to start the 2014-15 season, I'm not sure Melo will be excited to play an extra game in his home arena. At the same time, maybe suiting up in front of familiar fans in a contest that can't hurt the Knicks' overall record will provide a reprieve from the tiring talk of triangles, knee soreness and no-trade clauses.
Melo earned the third-most votes among East forwards last season. Paul George's absence from the field and the added boost of the New York location should be more than enough to assure Anthony a starting position for the sixth year in a row.
West Backcourt Starter: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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2014-15 Statistics: 23.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks
Few teams drum up votes for their players more aggressively than the Golden State Warriors, whose ad campaign to "Dub the Vote" is already off to a strong start.
Of course, the Warriors could probably get Stephen Curry into the All-Star Game as a starter by putting a postage-stamp-sized ad in a low-circulation newspaper. He's been good enough to get there without a franchise-sponsored hype machine.
Don't be fooled by the modest downturns in his per-game averages; Curry is simply getting more rest than last year as Golden State relies on its depth and takes advantage of plenty of blowout wins. On a per-minute basis, Steph's points, rebounds and steals are at career highs this year. His turnovers are down from a year ago, and his assists are steady, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Thanks to newfound trust from head coach Steve Kerr, Curry no longer has to deal with the confidence-killer of being hidden on defense either.
"Defensively, one of the big changes has been to let Curry defend the opposing team's point guard," wrote Marcus Thompson of Bay Area News Group. "[Former head coach Mark] Jackson always gave that duty to Thompson, opting to protect Curry and preserve his energy. Under Jackson, the Warriors were a top-five defense. But now they are the best in the league, and Curry—with his quick hands and keen court sense—is a part of that."
There's also the matter of Curry being the most important player on a team that has the NBA's best record. That's a distinction that typically warrants MVP consideration, and Curry is getting plenty of that.
Starting the All-Star Game for the second year in a row would be a nice precursor to the bigger award that might be ahead.
West Backcourt Starter: Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
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2014-15 Statistics: 25.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks
If you have an issue with Kobe Bryant starting an All-Star Game ahead of a handful of more deserving players, just remember that he was voted onto the first unit after suiting up for just six games last year.
Bryant has been a low-efficiency scorer this year and hasn't played much defense of note. His Los Angeles Lakers will be lucky to reach 25 wins on the season.
Still, for all that, he's been a must-watch performer who recently moved past Michael Jordan for third on the all-time scoring list. So in addition to having a massive fan following, there's also a historical quality to Bryant's season that could attract even more votes.
Bryant's one-man attack has been morbidly enthralling to some, gleefully absurd to others. No matter what, though, fans have wanted to watch him—just like always.
The NBA's new No. 3 all-time leading scorer is a lock to start the All-Star Game.
West Frontcourt Starter: Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
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2014-15 Statistics: 22.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks
The prevailing narrative on Blake Griffin this season has been one of change. He's shooting jumpers and getting to the line at a career-low rate but is generally playing a more well-rounded brand of basketball.
Per Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers explained that the changes are simply part of a process:
"I think you have to mix it up to be great. I don't think Blake can just attack every possession and be good and I don't think he can settle for jump shots. We want him to be a full player and that's what he's becoming. There's a learning curve in that, when to do it, when not to do it, when not to settle, and I think he's figuring it out.
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The process seems to be working. Griffin's production has spiked in December, and his field-goal percentage and free-throw frequency are back to their normally high levels. With the Clippers showing promising signs (they've won eight of their last 10), it seems everything is getting back to normal in L.A.
Also normal: Griffin starting the All-Star Game. He did it last year, and the fans will surely have him back this season.
West Frontcourt Starter: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
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2014-15 Statistics: 20.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 block
Pay no mind to his month's worth of missed games and shaky long-range shooting numbers. Kevin Durant is the league's reigning MVP, and his Oklahoma City Thunder have won seven out of eight games since his return from an offseason Jones fracture.
By the time the All-Star Game rolls around, expect KD to be back to full strength and the Thunder to be comfortably in playoff position. In the short time Durant has been back, OKC has already made up a full five games on the Phoenix Suns for the No. 8 spot in the West.
It's not hard to see where this is going.
How can we be so sure? Because those with the best vantage points already think Durant is rounding into form.
"He was Kevin Durant," Thunder guard Reggie Jackson said after KD led them to a Dec. 11 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, per Andrew Gilman of Fox Sports Southwest. "He looked like himself. A guy we're used to."
Get used to the idea of KD alongside Griffin and this next gentleman in the 2015 All-Star Game.
West Frontcourt Starter: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
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2014-15 Statistics: 24.3 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.9 steals, 2.7 blocks
Anthony Davis hasn't just been the best player in the league this season. He's been one of the best players in any season.
With a PER of 33.0, Davis is on pace to best Wilt Chamberlain's figure of 31.8, a record that has stood for over half a century. Only the Big Dipper, Jordan and James have ever finished a season with a PER over 31.0, per Basketball-Reference.com.
So even if AD's absurdly high efficiency rating regresses a bit, he'll still be in historically great company.
He should be the MVP if the season ended today, regardless of his team's performance. There's only so much a player can do, and Davis is doing more than any player ever has—as measured by one widely accepted catch-all metric anyway.
Davis has captured national attention in his breakout campaign, and the attention on him will only intensify as his own star continues to brighten. Knowing that, validating such a remarkable year with an All-Star start is the least fans could do.
Of course, the best way to pay homage to Davis' singular dominance would be to hold him out of the game altogether on the grounds that the rest of the participants don't deserve to be on the same floor with him.
If the fans don't get this one right, we, as a supposedly rational species, will have a lot of tough questions to ask ourselves.
East Reserves
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John Wall, Washington Wizards
The undisputed leader of a team very near the top of the Eastern Conference, John Wall is dishing out 10.3 assists per game in his best overall season so far. He deserves the start ahead of Rose but will have to settle for a backup spot.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
En route to a max contract this summer, Jimmy Butler has been the Bulls' best overall player. Augmenting an already phenomenal defensive game with more scoring punch has made Chicago's shooting guard into one of the most complete threats in the game.
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Last year's biggest snub has been too good to ignore. And with teammate DeMar DeRozan out because of a torn groin muscle, Kyle Lowry's path to his first All-Star Game is clearer than ever. The fact that the East is a grossly inferior conference from a talent perspective also helps.
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
For the sixth year in a row, Jeff Teague has increased his scoring average and PER, and now those numbers (along with his growth as a leader of the Atlanta Hawks) will be too significant to ignore come All-Star time. With Al Horford still not himself after two pectoral injuries, it's been Teague who has led the Hawks to the third-best record in the East.
Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
Though his lack of mobility often hurts him against rangier bigs, Pau Gasol has defended the rim far better than he did with the Lakers last year while putting up per-game averages of 19.0 points and 11.9 rebounds. Still a legitimate post threat and excellent passer, it seems Gasol has plenty left in the tank.
Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
These two are lumped together because both of their seasons can be described similarly. Watch: Though Kevin Love/Kyrie Irving is still struggling to adjust to a secondary role and the responsibility of having to try on defense more than once every few weeks, there have been signs of growth. As Love/Irving continues to build chemistry with James, his production and efficiency should continue to rise.
West Reserves
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In a world where merit mattered more than popularity, James Harden would start ahead of Bryant in the West backcourt. He's kept an undermanned Houston Rockets team afloat without Dwight Howard, carrying the squad to an 18-5 record with huge scoring outbursts and career-best facilitation.
It seems like there's come a point in each of the last four or five years when we suddenly notice Chris Paul is doing something remarkable. This year, he's putting up his typical scoring (17.7 points) and dishing stats (9.8 assists) while hitting a career-high-tying 50.3 percent of his shots from the floor. He's in.
Slim, trim and playing the best basketball of his career, Marc Gasol's offensive game has exploded. At 19.4 points per game, the Memphis Grizzlies center is scoring at a clip nearly 30 percent above his career average. With Memphis sitting comfortably in the No. 2 spot out West, Gasol deserves All-Star recognition as much as any projected starter.
A scary bout with viral meningitis will bite into DeMarcus Cousins' game count, which can sometimes hurt a player's candidacy. But with career-best season averages of 23.5 points, 12.6 rebounds and 51.2 percent shooting (not to mention a major step forward defensively), Boogie has been too good to ignore. We haven't seen anyone this physically dominant inside since Shaquille O'Neal. Sounds like an All-Star to me.
Like his teammate Durant, Russell Westbrook lost some time to injury. Not only that, but the Thunder's underwhelming record (relatively speaking) could hurt Russ' candidacy. Still, Westbrook has never scored this much or this efficiently. He's shooting better than ever from long range while also getting to the foul line more often than at any point in his career.
We're watching Westbrook's career season right now, and you could make an argument that if he hadn't lost time to a broken hand, he'd be in line to start.
Half of one of the NBA's most potent two-man wrecking crews, LaMarcus Aldridge is on pace for his fifth straight season with at least 21 points and eight rebounds. His Blazers have quieted doubters who thought their hot start last year was a fluke.
The other half of the aforementioned wrecking crew, Damian Lillard secures the final spot on the strength of Portland's 18-6 start and his own 21.9 PER—his best yet.
Snubs and Apologies
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Eastern Conference
Nikola Vucevic, Joakim Noah and Paul Millsap.
Western Conference
Mike Conley, Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut, Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and all of the Spurs.
Stats accurate through games played Dec. 14. Advanced stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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