Washington Wizards' Elite Bid Is About to Be Tested
If the Washington Wizards want to be among the NBA's best, they are going to have to start beating some of the NBA's best.
And for the first time in the 2014-15 season, they are about to have the opportunity to do so on a consistent basis.
The Wizards can point to a number of different factors behind their 14-6 start. John Wall looks as good as he ever has. Paul Pierce has made a seamless transition to his new digs. This defense is downright dominant, and the offense is often as potent as it needs to be.
But it's impossible to watch Washington explode out of the gate and not think its cashmere-soft schedule has not played a significant part in this early-season sprint.
The Wizards sit tied for 22nd in strength of schedule, per ESPN.com. Of the 12 teams they have defeated so far, only the Cleveland Cavaliers currently hold a winning record. And the Cavs avenged their 78-91 loss with a 113-87 demolition of the Wizards the second time they met.
After the Wizards notched seven wins in their first nine games, center Marcin Gortat tried to keep things in perspective.
"We feel good, but at the same time I don't think we're getting super excited because we all know that we didn't win against top, top, top teams," he said, per Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post. "We played against some good teams, but at the end of the day it wasn't San Antonio, it wasn't Cleveland."
That same caveat still largely applies. The Wizards still haven't played many good teams, nor fared particularly well against the ones they have played.
| Sub-.400 | 9 | 8-1 | 104.2 | 98.8 |
| .400-.600 | 6 | 5-1 | 103.8 | 93.2 |
| Above .600 | 5 | 1-4 | 93.2 | 101.0 |
The first step in climbing the NBA ladder is to take care of the opponents you should be able to handle. Clearly, the Wizards have done that.
But Washington should be past the first stage. This is a club that racked up 44 wins and a postseason-series victory last season.
That laid the foundation, and, as Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes explained, the Wizards already look like a better team this time around:
"Remember, the so-called breakout of 2013-14 featured a team floundering around .500 (yes, in a weak conference) for most of the year before finishing with an 8-3 surge that ran the win total up to 44. Washington spent the vast majority of that campaign playing mediocre ball.
Things are different this year. There's a confidence to this team, perhaps brought about by Paul Pierce's veteran presence as much as Wall's growth. The Wizards look more consistently assured of their own capabilities. Comfortable, even.
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But that comfort and confidence will both be tested in short order.
The Wizards will soon enter the proving-ground portion of their schedule. After largely feasting on the least of the East, Washington is about to get its fill of the NBA's Wild West.
"Between now and the All-Star Game, the Wizards are set to play 15 contests against teams from out West in 34 outings (44.1 percent)," wrote Bleacher Report's Bryant Knox. "Of the 15, nine are against playoff opponents. Unfortunately, two of the contests against non-playoff opponents come against the now-healthy Oklahoma City Thunder."
The Wizards have yet to play any of the six Western Conference teams that have a .700-plus winning percentage. They'll get four of them before the All-Star break: the Los Angeles Clippers at home, the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers on the road, plus one of each against the San Antonio Spurs.
Before the month of December is over, the Wizards will also play at the Miami Heat, host the Phoenix Suns and Chicago Bulls, then catch the Dallas Mavericks on the road. The January slate features road tilts with the Thunder, Bulls, Trail Blazers and Atlanta Hawks, plus visits by the Bulls, Thunder and Toronto Raptors.
Wherever the Wizards are sitting by the week-long All-Star break, they will have earned that seat.
To be clear, Washington has not proved itself incapable of rubbing elbows with the NBA's elites. The Wizards haven't had enough opportunities to show whether they should be held in such high regard.
They have a top-shelf defense (rated fifth overall), plus a blossoming floor general in the 24-year-old Wall, who seems to be getting better by the second.
"He’s growing right before our eyes—not only from a star to a superstar, but to one of the very best players in this league at his position, if not the best," Pierce said of Wall, per Castillo.
Wall has cemented himself as one of the game's great playmakers. He ranks second in assists (10.4), first in free-throw assists (1.4), second in secondary assists (2.2), third in assist opportunities (19.9) and second in points created by assists (24.6), per NBA.com's player tracking data.
And Wall is so much more than an expert passer. He paces the Wizards with 18.0 points, 2.2 steals and a 20.5 player efficiency rating. His 14 blocks ranks second among NBA point guards.
Whatever his team needs, he is comfortable with and capable of providing.
"That's showing my improvement as a point guard," he said, per Comcast SportsNet's J. Michael. "When I have to score and assist I can do it at the same time. Or when I just need to be a floor general and play defense, I'm willing to do that."
With Wall on the court, the Wizards have outscored their opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions. When he has sat, Washington has been outscored by 5.0 points per 100 possessions.
His value to this team is immense. To a slightly lesser extent, so too is Pierce's.
The veteran has added leadership, toughness and another consistent scoring touch to a team that needed all three. His track record speaks for itself, and his 13.5 points-per-game scoring average shows the 37-year-old has plenty left in the tank.
"His fit with this team has just been perfect," coach Randy Wittman said recently, per MassLive.com's Jay King. "... It almost seems like he's been here more than 18 games or whatever it is they've played. He's just stepped right in and been part of the group, and been an instrumental part of the group."
As Bradley Beal continues finding his form—he missed the first nine games while recovering from a wrist fracture—this offense should only grow more threatening.
Both Beal and Wall can set up scoring chances for themselves and their teammates. Pierce can provide more of the former, while Andre Miller is one of the best at doing the latter (9.2 assists per 36 minutes). There aren't many better passing frontcourt combos than Marcin Gortat and Nene, truer shooters than Rasual Butler (47.5 three-point percentage since the start of last season) or more active hustlers than Kris Humphries.
Otto Porter's versatility only increases Washington's depth, as will Martell Webster's three-point cannon whenever his back allows him to return to action.
The Wizards have the pieces to be very good, perhaps even great, depending on the degree of improvement their young players can make. They just need to show that the total package is as good as it looks on paper—against teams with similar (or better) collections of talent.
This upcoming series of tests is Washington's chance to show that it's ready for the bright lights, big stage and minuscule margin for error that all exist at the top. That the Wizards are not only capable of knocking off some Goliaths, they are NBA giants themselves.
A .700 winning percentage is a great place to start. Now, the Wizards must maintain that standard as their competition quickly stiffens.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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