7 Bold Predictions for the Houston Rockets During 2014-15 Season
The Houston Rockets are preparing to launch their regular season, the fans are ready to watch in enthusiasm and the analysts are ready to predict what happens. What is in store for Clutch City?
Will they be surprisingly good, shockingly bad or about what we expect them to be? Will they regret the departure of Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin, or will Trevor Ariza make a big enough impact to offset their loss?
Here are seven bold predictions for the Rockets’ season. They are ranked in order of the entirely subjective aspect of “boldness” with the more eyebrow-raising projections at the top.
7. The Rockets Will Finish Last in the League in Assists
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Per RealGM, the Rockets are last in the league in assists through the preseason, averaging just 17.29. That’s a full dime fewer than the No. 29 Toronto Raptors.
Now granted, it is just the preseason, but that excuse has limited mileage. It’s still the Rockets’ personnel. Where are the passers? Last year, Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin were Houston's second- and third-leading distributors. But they don't have anyone new to make up for the missing assists.
Furthermore, there isn’t anyone else who can easily add a passing element to their game. They have loads of guards—Troy Smith, Ish Smith, Jason Terry, Isaiah Canaan and Patrick Beverley—but none of them have a mentality which lends to being distributors.
So, yes, we’ll see a few more assists once the regular season tips off, but not enough to move ahead of any other teams (who are also just playing preseason games). Saving a trade, the Rockets are going to be struggling to distribute the ball all season long.
6. Troy Daniels Will Emerge as the 6th Man
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There is a special planet for shooters such as Kyle Korver and Ray Allen. Troy Daniels isn’t on that sphere, but he’s on the rocket (no pun intended this time) that will take him there.
He had an effective field-goal percentage of 67.7 last year in his very brief time with the Rockets. While that might be explained as a small sample size, his stint with Rio Grande Valley Vipers isn’t so easily dismissed. His effective field-goal percentage there was 57.8 on 766 shots.
And if stats aren’t enough, just watch the kid shoot. He can hit from anywhere on the three-point line, and he’s lightening-quick on his release.
On a Daryl Morey team which treasures three-point shooting, that’s a talent that won’t be ignored for long.
As the season progresses, and Jason Terry fights through a gazillion injuries (that is technically a prediction, but it’s about as “bold” as mayonnaise), look for Daniels to take over the job as primary bench scorer.
5. The Rockets Will Win at Least 50 and Reach the 2nd Round of the Playoffs
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In 2013-14, the Rockets won 54 games and failed to get past the first round of the playoffs. This year, they’ll win fewer games, but they’ll still get to 50. And this time, they’ll take a postseason series.
There are legitimate reasons they will be worse, and if you only look at those things, it’s preposterous to think they’ll hit the half-century mark. They don’t have Parsons, Lin or Omer Asik anymore. They went all-in holding an inside straight, and they got caught with an eight-high hand. You can’t get around that.
But there are also areas where they’ll progress. Two improvements in particular will get them to the second round of the playoffs.
First, Ariza will give Houston a Big Three on defense, and as I established in an earlier article, the seven teams who had three plus-defenders last year were all among the top nine in defensive rating.
Between Ariza, a resurgent Dwight Howard and All-Defensive point guard in Patrick Beverley, the Rockets will finish with one of the top eight defenses in the league this year. That will offset their loss on offense.
The other thing being overlooked is that Harden and Howard are in their second season together. With the exception of the Boston Celtics' trio of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in 2008, superstars generally need a year to adjust to one another.
Harden and Howard showed an increased chemistry as the season progressed last year (more on that later), and it should get better this year.
Two aspects of the game amplify in the postseason: defense and superstar play. With Houston improving in both of those areas, it’ll have the push to get past its first-round opponent this year, even as a lower seed.
4. Trevor Ariza Will Make His 1st All-Defensive Team
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As I recounted in the previous slide, the Rockets will improve this season on the defensive end. While there will be no singular reason, it won’t be treated that way.
Howard will have a resurgent year. Beverley will have a normal improvement with another year of experience under his belt. Kevin McHale has made defense a point of emphasis. All those will be contributory factors.
However, the media likes things streamlined and simple, so when the obvious difference in the Rockets defense is the addition of Ariza, and the team improves to top-10 status, he will get all the credit. And he’ll deserve some of it.
In fact, even the undeserved part will be a make-up for previous oversights.
Ariza has never been on an All-Defensive team, but he’s quietly been among the elite defensive wings over the last few years. Per ESPN, only two shooting guards, Andre Iguodala and Jimmy Butler, played 30 minutes per game and had a better defensive real plus-minus last year. (Some would argue that Ariza is a small forward, but most elite defenders guard the other team’s best wing, anyway, so it’s a moot point.)
Paul George is out for the year. LeBron James will suffer because Cleveland Cavaliers will have a bottom-10 defense. Those things mean there will be openings on the All-Defensive team, and one will be filled by Ariza.
3. Daryl Morey Will Make an Impactful Midseason Trade
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This summer, answering criticism of the Rockets’ failure to land an elite free agent, Morey told Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle (subscription required):
"On top of that, we still have our mid-level (exception). And even if we don't sign someone like that now, very often there's players that come free during the season where if you were to have the advantage of having a mid-level you can add them. We have the trade exception, which can add someone up to $8.4 million (in salary).
We have I think the best draft pick in the league for someone to trade for (the first-round pick acquired from New Orleans). I think we have the best set of international rights held - guys to either bring over or use in a trade.
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In the case of some general managers, you might toss that statement off as a political answer and excuse making. In the case of Morey, it’s a plan. If he’s established anything during his tenure, it’s that he’s willing to make a move.
Who that player will be is very much up in the air. It will depend on which teams throw in the towel at the trade deadline and what the Rockets’ most pressing need is at the time. A point guard is the best guess.
Sometime in February, though, the Rockets will make a deal using the Jeremy Lin trade exception, probably combined with the New Orleans Pelicans pick, to land a major asset.
2. Dwight Howard Will Have His First 20-Point Season Since Orlando
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Howard’s last year in Orlando, he averaged 20.6 points. In his two years since then, he’s averaged 18.6, but there was a 42-game stretch where he started to look like his old self. Last year, from Dec. 12 to Mar. 7, per Basketball-Reference.com, he averaged 20.0 points and 12.3 rebounds per game.
Shortly thereafter he got injured and missed the bulk of the remainder of the season. Then he had a spectacular postseason, averaging 26.0 points and 13.7 boards.
He followed that up with getting into the shape he was in when he played in Orlando by going back there. Hakeem Olajuown told Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.
"He's a different animal this year. His physique, his spirit coming together with his talent and skills and health; he has an aura about him here. It's like he's gotten his youth back."
Expect a physically rejuvenated Howard, working in better concert with Harden, to get back over the 20-point average.
1. James Harden Will Win the Scoring Title
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Harden will win the 2014-15 scoring title. This is in part, by default and in part, because he’s that good. First, we have to consider that his main competition is going to either be eliminated or have their production curtailed.
Due to his foot injury, Kevin Durant probably won’t get enough games in. Furthermore, he’ll probably ease his way back in when he does return, which is going to nerf his per-game averages. And he’s in no hurry, as he told Royce Young of ESPN.com:
"I'm not going to rush it all. That's the one thing I don't want to do. I'm sure I'll feel better in two or three weeks, but definitely don't want to rush it and wind up hurting it even more. I'm taking my time with it. I'm just blessed it happened early in the season where I can get past it, and hopefully by December I'll be ready to play.
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LeBron James will be sharing shots with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, so he’ll see a reduction in attempts.
Carmelo Anthony will be learning the triangle offense. That emphasizes ball movement, and he’ll see a reduction in attempts. He’ll still be scoring, but the adjustment will cost him a couple of points per game. Stephen Curry could be a dark horse, but his ceiling as a point guard is probably 25.0 points.
That leaves Harden, who improved as the season progressed last year and adjusted to playing with Howard. He averaged 27.7 points after the All-Star break, and that’s a reasonable projection for where he’ll finish this year, and that will be enough to win him the scoring title.
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