Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints: Complete Week 8 Preview for Green Bay
The New Orleans Saints may be hungry, but the Green Bay Packers are a flat-out better team.
When Green Bay (5-2) travels to the Bayou for its Sunday Night Football showdown against New Orleans (2-4) at 8:30 p.m. ET, the Saints will be looking to go 3-0 at home on the season. Under Sean Payton, New Orleans has won 19 straight at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and is 17-1-1 against the spread, according to Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel. The one failure to cover came just a few weeks ago against Tampa Bay, when it took overtime to put away the winless Bucs.
The Saints are clearly a different team at home than on the road, where they are 0-4, having lost to Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas and Detroit.
The Packers, meanwhile, are humming, winners of their last four by an average of nearly 20 points. Two wins on the road at Miami and Chicago, and two at home versus Minnesota and Carolina.
Aaron Rodgers, in particular, is on a tear, with at three or more touchdown passes and no interceptions in each of the four victories. Only three quarterbacks have ever done that—Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Rodgers is looking to become the first to do it in five straight, in prime time under the bright lights, in one of the rowdiest environments in pro football.
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Packers Week 7 Recap
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Never a doubt.
The Packers took the opening kickoff 80 yards for a touchdown. They took the second drive 56 yards for a touchdown. They took the third drive 62 yards for a touchdown. The Carolina Panthers offense, meanwhile, started with a three-and-out, three-and-out and three-and-out. Nine plays, 10 yards, three punts.
Green Bay imposed its will on Carolina, scoring the game's first 28 points and leading 38-3 in the third quarter before the Panthers scored a few garbage points. After all was said and done, when the clock hit zero, the Packers won 38-17, their fourth straight victory after a 1-2 start.
"Aaron Rodgers now with 18 touchdowns and one interception through Green Bay's first seven games.
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) October 19, 2014"
Wide receiver Randall Cobb played his best game of the season, setting a season-high in receiving yards (121) and broken ankles:
"Cobb on if this is the best Rodgers has looked: “I guess you could argue that...He expects a lot from himself and he delivers."
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) October 19, 2014"
News and Notes
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Woe is Brees
Something's up with the first ballot Hall of Famer. Drew Brees looked out of sorts toward the end of last week's 24-23 loss to Detroit, mixing in an interception with 10 straight fourth-quarter incompletions.
Through six games, Brees has just 11 passing touchdowns, putting him on pace for 29. While that'd be a career-year for most, Brees hasn't tossed fewer than 30 scores since 2007. Hampered by the loss of weapons (Darren Sproles, Lance Moore) and the aging of others (Marques Colston, Robert Meachem), Brees is looking more human than ever before.
Rob Ryan's Rushes
Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, like his brother Rex in New York, loves to bring the blitz. New Orleans is the seventh-most blitz-happy team (34.8 percent) this season, according to STATS. Rodgers, meanwhile, excels when pressured:
"Rodgers' best passer rating as a starter came vs. Ryan (Cle, '09); Ryan blitzed nearly 1/2 the time with QB going 15 of 20 for 246, 3 TD.
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) October 23, 2014"
"For career vs. the blitz, Rodgers has comp 64% of his passes for 7,745 yards, 67 TD with 18 int for 109.6 rating (best in NFL since '05).
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) October 23, 2014"
Sam I Am
Inside linebacker Sam Barrington got the surprise start over Jamari Lattimore last week, and Barrington told the Journal Sentinel's Tom Silverstein that the determination for this week will probably come on game day.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Morgan Burnett (calf) | S | Questionable |
| Datone Jones (ankle) | DE | Out |
| Sam Shields (knee) | CB | Doubtful |
| James Starks (ankle) | RB | Probable |
Injury statuses courtesy of Packers.com.
Morgan Burnett is having the best of year of his career, according to Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, so it was especially disconcerting when the coach said his concern for the fifth-year safety was higher Thursday than it was Wednesday.
The Packers' bye week following the Saints game won't affect Sam Shields' status against New Orleans, reports ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. McCarthy said that when Shields is ready, he'll play.
Datone Jones will miss his third straight game after suffering an ankle injury Week 5 against the Vikings.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Jimmy Graham vs. Packers linebackers/safeties
When he's going well, there's not a bigger matchup problem in the NFL than Saints tight end Jimmy Graham. But, thankfully for Green Bay, Graham is less than 100 percent and was utilized mostly as a decoy last week, going the entirety of the game without a single target in 30 snaps played.
Packers NASCAR package vs. Saints offensive line
Dom Capers pulled a rabbit out of his hat last week, unveiling his "NASCAR" package of speedy rushers, writes ESPN's Rob Demovsky. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers line up inside at defensive tackle with Nick Perry and Mike Neal at the outside linebacker spots. This is obviously a pass-rushing package, and it'll be interesting to see how well it fares against Sean Payton's offense.
Packers X-Factor of the Week: Randall Cobb
It looks as if the Saints have tried using a couple guys at slot corner—Brian Dixon, Corey White and safety Marcus Ball rotating down—with not a whole lot of success. Cobb is playing at an elite level right now, as evidenced by his two long catch-and-runs in the Week 7 win over Carolina. He leads all wide receivers with eight touchdown catches, in large part because he's so good at uncovering in the end zone when Rodgers scrambles and gets outside the pocket.
He should destroy whoever's trying to cover him Sunday night.
Prediction
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The train, she keeps a-rolling.
Despite Sean Payton's 19-game winning streak at home, and despite the Saints having won 13 straight prime-time games, and despite their 16-1 record in night games since their 51-29 win over the Packers on Monday Night Football in 2008, I like the Packers' chances to win this game.
For one, Green Bay's not turning the ball over (four turnovers). New Orleans is (12 turnovers). Green Bay is taking the ball away (14 takeaways). New Orleans is not (four takeaways). Green Bay is playing good defense (No. 9 scoring defense). New Orleans is not (No. 28 scoring defense). Green Bay can play with every ounce of energy with a bye week upcoming. New Orleans had its bye week in Week 6.
Yeah, the Saints are great at home. But the Packers are better no matter where the game is played.
Prediction: Packers 31, Saints 20.
Odds via Odds Shark: Saints -1.5
Follow me on Twitter @PeterSowards.
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