Ranking Nerlens Noel's Biggest Challengers to 2014-15 Rookie of the Year Award
Nerlens Noel has a head start in the 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year race.
For starters, the Philadelphia 76ers are devoid of talent throughout their roster, particularly in the paint where Noel roams. The award is as much about opportunity as it is talent, and perhaps no other rookie will have the chance to shine on a nightly basis like Philly's big man.
They also play at the league's fastest pace, so based on the sheer number of possessions, Noel should be able to accumulate the necessary counting stats on both ends of the floor to be in the Rookie of the Year conversation. That's a huge boost for someone whose offensive game is still evolving.
His teammate and last year's winner, Michael Carter-Williams, took advantage of those same opportunities by leading all rookies in points, rebounds, assists and steals en route to securing the trophy.
The 2013 No. 6 overall pick spent all of last season on the sidelines rehabbing a torn ACL, which he suffered during his lone season at Kentucky. It may very well have been a blessing in disguise, as he was able to train and rehab with a pro staff while watching his teammates go through the rigors of a dismal season.
However, his name isn't etched on the trophy just yet.
Noel faces a far tougher group of challengers for Rookie of the Year than his teammate Carter-Williams did last season. This year's rookie crop is deep and skilled, and there are a handful of contenders who will give him a run for his money come award season.
Let's take a look at the players who represent the biggest threat to a rookie repeat in Philly.
Honorable Mentions: Doug McDermott and Marcus Smart
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In terms of fit, Doug McDermott was an excellent draft pick for a veteran Chicago Bulls team with championship aspirations.
Chicago ranked dead last in scoring last season and lacked any real threat behind the three-point line other than Mike Dunleavy Jr. The 6'8" McDermott, a recipient of numerous player of the year honors during his senior season at Creighton, is one of the finest scorers in college basketball history.
He can provide the floor spacing Chicago desperately needs so a rejuvenated Derrick Rose can slash through defenses and their crafty bigs can maneuver in the paint.
In terms of this award, McDermott's likely to fall short. He projects as more of a specialist, knocking down open shots off the bench. It's unlikely that head coach Tom Thibodeau will give the rookie big minutes from the jump, and it remains to be seen whether McDermott can provide enough defensively to warrant crunch-time minutes.
Marcus Smart finds himself in a similar situation, fighting for minutes in the Boston Celtics' crowded backcourt.
He should have a fine future as the heir apparent to Rajon Rondo whenever Boston decides to move him. The fiery floor general will have ample opportunities to stuff the stat sheet in the future, but not necessarily this season.
As long as Rondo is in town, he'll be running the show. Avery Bradley just signed a four-year, $32 million contract, assuring him starting minutes at the 2 for the foreseeable future. The backcourt is also loaded with reserves like Phil Pressey, Marcus Thornton, the newly acquired Will Bynum and fellow rookie James Young.
The 6'4" point guard of the future will have his opportunities, just not this season.
5. Julius Randle
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There are plenty of bodies in the mix at power forward for the Los Angeles Lakers, but none have the talent or potential of first-round pick Julius Randle.
The decaying Carlos Boozer can provide some useful scoring at times, but he was let go by Chicago for a reason. He's simply not the same player he was a few years ago. Ed Davis is long and athletic but is a project. Ryan Kelly spent much of his rookie year bouncing back and forth between the Lakers and the D-League.
An absolute bull in the post, Randle has asserted himself well in spots during the Lakers' preseason games. He's shown patience with his back to the basket, exploded to the rim and has thrown down dunks in traffic.
However at this juncture, Randle has yet to truly separate himself from the power forward pack.
According to head coach Byron Scott, Randle has looked "lost" at times. He's been hard on the rookie, and he still sees his development as a work in progress, even going so far as to sit him out the entire second half of their preseason game against the Utah Jazz.
“It’s not that he’s not willing to learn; it’s that he’s got to be willing to put forth the effort," Scott said to Baxter Holmes of ESPN Los Angeles. "It’s a lot harder here than it was at Kentucky. This is a big boy’s league. That’s the bottom line.”
Over time, Randle will get the lion's share of minutes at the position. But by the time he does, he may be out of the running for Rookie of the Year.
4. Dante Exum
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Dante Exum is one of the most intriguing rookies in this entire draft class.
Even with former first-round pick Trey Burke slated to start at point guard and Alec Burks competing for minutes at the 2, Exum is the one piece in the backcourt that has elite potential.
“He’s a better shooter already than I thought he was," said Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers to Jody Genessy of the Deseret News after a recent preseason game against Exum's Utah Jazz. "With his ability to handle the ball, he can be a gigantic point. He’s going to be great, I think.”
The 6'5" guard from Australia has ideal size and ball-handling prowess. However, the smooth playmaker has perhaps the steepest learning curve of anyone in this year's draft class. He's played sparingly in international competition, and although he's squared off against some of his fellow rookies in the Nike Hoop Summit, he's never faced that type of talent consistently.
He has all the tools. His ceiling is right up there with the other heavyweights from this class, but whether he can play up to this level of competition on a nightly basis remains to be seen.
3. Andrew Wiggins
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It's been quite a roller coaster for Andrew Wiggins' Rookie of the Year candidacy since he was selected No. 1 overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers back in June.
First, it appeared as though he would be able to play alongside Kyrie Irving in Cleveland and get plenty of scoring opportunities on a young, rebuilding team. Then, when LeBron James shocked the basketball world and signed with the Cavs in July, it looked like Wiggins would have the opportunity to learn from one of the game's best.
Sure, his Rookie of the Year chances hit a bit of a snag with the signing—James would handle much of the scoring burden and inhabit the same position—but it would be an invaluable learning experience playing alongside LeBron and competing for a championship.
Then Cleveland shipped Wiggins and other pieces to the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for All-Star forward Kevin Love, and his Rookie of the Year chances went back to where they were on draft night. He'll once again have the opportunity to put up big numbers on a rebuilding team.
Wiggins is a special kind of talent. He's NBA-ready on the defensive end, a force athletically and, with some growth and refinement, could put together one heck of an offensive repertoire.
However, Minnesota's perimeter is crowded, and he'll face competition for minutes from veterans Corey Brewer, Chase Budinger and Kevin Martin, not to mention fellow rookie Zach LaVine.
Wiggins is certainly the future, but with all the mouths to feed and his perceived reluctance to take over games, he will likely fall short of the individual statistics necessary to secure the award this season.
2. Elfrid Payton
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This may be a surprise to some, but Elfrid Payton finds himself in just as good a position as anyone to lock down the Rookie of the Year award this season.
With the departure of Jameer Nelson, Payton is blessed with having the keys to the entire Orlando Magic offense. The 6'4" point guard from unheralded Louisiana-Lafayette will slide right into Nelson's spot and allow last year's Rookie of the Year runner-up, Victor Oladipo, to play the 2, a more natural fit for him.
Payton knows how to run an offense and should post excellent assists and steals numbers. His shot is a work in progress, but he's so skilled at not only driving the lane, but initiating contact, that he should find very little problem getting to the line and putting some points on the board.
Seven out of the last 10 Rookie of the Year winners have been guards, specifically ones who dominated the ball. This award is practically begging for Payton to come out of nowhere and snatch it up.
And it won't hurt Payton's chances if Orlando surprises some people and challenges for a playoff spot—which they can.
1. Jabari Parker
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Jabari Parker has been penciled in as the front-runner for Rookie of the Year since he was drafted No. 2 overall by the Milwaukee Bucks.
According to Odds Shark, Parker is a 5-2 favorite to win the award, with Wiggins (15-4) and Noel (11-2) trailing him.
He's been touted by many as the most "NBA-ready" prospect in a talented draft thanks to his refined offensive skill set. Not only that, he's going into an ideal situation with Milwaukee.
He'll be playing on a team that went 15-67 last season and is in dire need of talent. Parker is one of their cornerstone pieces, guaranteeing him high-volume scoring chances.
He's already starting to find his groove. According to Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the 6'8" Parker "is settling in at the power forward position. His quickness is giving bigger opponents plenty of trouble and he is rebounding well."
Since the award revolves around stats and stats are born from opportunities, Parker's ability to score and rebound will certainly put him at the forefront in the Rookie of the Year conversation. The presence of veterans like Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson will do little to hinder Parker's chances.
If there's anyone who has not just the talent, but the opportunity, to challenge Noel for this award, it's Parker.
