Dream Scenario for Philadelphia 76ers' Painful Rebuild
It takes 20/20 vision and the aid of a telescope to see it, but there is, in fact, a light at the end of this long rebuilding road for the Philadelphia 76ers.
It's going to take years to get there—with a mini-mountain of losses piling up along the way—and could become more challenging than it already is if the NBA moves to disincentivize tanking by reworking the draft lottery system.
But even with the risks involved, this is a path worth pursuing. By embracing the loss column and the potential draft-night spoils that can follow, Philly has prioritized a shot at long-term greatness over the more attainable, but far less desirable short-term goodness.
As Sporting News' Sean Deveney reported, history actually likes the Sixers' chances of eventually realizing their ultimate goal:
"In the last 20 seasons in the NBA, there have been 40 teams that won 20 games or fewer in a year (adjusted for shortened seasons). ...
Of the 40 teams with 20 wins, two — the Bobcats and Grizzlies — were expansion teams, so we’ll knock those off the list. Seven others came within the past five seasons and, thus, still have time to change their fortunes.
But if you look at the 30 remaining teams that bottomed out with win totals of 20 or fewer, their record of bouncing back within five years is impressive. In all, 13 of those 30 teams posted a 50-win season in their next five years, 43.3 percent (and two others just missed out with 49 wins). Six of those teams — the Heat, Thunder, Cavaliers, Spurs, Nets (twice) and Sixers — wound up in the Finals.
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Philly's transparent plan to completely bottom out may be uncomfortable to some, but this franchise isn't worried about appeasing the masses. The Sixers have their eyes locked on the big picture, and they are willing to sacrifice instant gratification to get there.
Over the past two years, they have parted with a pair of All-Stars (Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday) along with a host of proven veteran commodities (Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young, among others). Those moves have come with a price—63 losses last season, perhaps even more this time around—but it's a price the franchise is willing to pay in hope of securing a brighter future.
"Philly is tired of being mediocre," owner Josh Harris told reporters. "The last NBA championship was obviously 1983. And then you had the Allen Iverson [NBA Finals] run and that was over a decade ago. I think Philly wants a team that is competing for the NBA championship."
Of course that's what the Sixers want. That is the proverbial carrot hanging in front of all 30 NBA teams.
But how can the 76ers get to that point from the lowly place in which they currently reside? What chips need to fall and where in order to make general manager Sam Hinkie's dream a reality?
In a best-case scenario, a lot of those dominoes have already dropped in the right place.
Had either Nerlens Noel (torn ACL) or Joel Embiid (foot fracture) not been injured before their respective drafts, both were candidates to be the first overall selections. Due to those medical issues, though, both fell into the Sixers' lap: Noel, the No. 6 pick in 2013, was acquired from the New Orleans Pelicans in the Holiday trade and Embiid landed in Philly as the No. 3 pick this past June.
Michael Carter-Williams, the 11th pick in 2013, captured Rookie of the Year honors this past season with a historically special stat line. The former Syracuse standout joined Hall of Famers Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson as the only players to post per-game averages of 16 points, six rebounds and six assists during their rookie seasons.
Dario Saric, the 12th pick in 2014, came to Philly via a draft-night swap with the Orlando Magic. The skilled 6'10" Croatian forward may stay overseas for at least the next two years, sources told ESPN.com's Chad Ford, but a patient franchise like the Sixers could reap major rewards once he makes it stateside.
"If he was in college basketball, I'd have him in the top eight," a team executive told NBA.com's David Aldridge before the draft. "He's a triple-double guy, does a little bit of everything. ... He's a perfect guy to come to your team and be in a rotation."
So, those are four draft-night investments who all have the opportunity to outperform their draft position. And, oh by the way, defensive-minded wing K.J. McDaniels, taken 32nd overall, could wind up being the steal of the 2014 draft.
Noel, Embiid and Carter-Williams ooze two-way potential. Saric could wind up being a matchup nightmare at the offensive end. McDaniels has the tools to be a perimeter stopper and expert help defender.
In a perfect world, all five will play pivotal roles for the contender Philly hopes to eventually build.
The Sixers have reportedly been seeking trade offers for Carter-Williams since draft night, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe, but the point guard needs to stick around for the long haul. The team is amassing a collection of lanky athletic specimens, and the 6'6" floor general is a perfect fit to lead that group.
That said, all five of these players need to develop for this to work.
Noel's ongoing attempt to find a workable shooting stroke must eventually yield something of substance. His defensive ceiling extends farther than the eye can see (he averaged 4.4 blocks and 2.1 steals during his lone season at Kentucky), but his 37.0 field-goal percentage through three preseason games shows how much work needs to be done at the opposite side. Ideally, he'll become a terror above the rim and comfortable from mid-range.
Embiid's tallest task may simply be staying healthy. The 7-footer battled a lower back problem before hurting his foot, and those ailments are certainly concerning given his size.
But when he steps between the lines, he hints at an upside shared by few others in the sport.
"The Hakeem Olajuwon comparisons started early this season," noted Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman. "And though it's tough to take them seriously until he's got some NBA production to show for it, that's the type of potential his two-way game hints at."
At their best, both Noel and Embiid could become transcendent two-way talents. Philly could (should?) have the league's top interior defense sooner than later, and this frontcourt can also be a steady source of offense. Noel projects as an explosive roll man, and Embiid already has the ability to score from anywhere on the floor.
Carter-Williams badly needs a jump shot, but his finishing ability might be the only thing missing from his arsenal. His size, length and athleticism have obvious perks on both sides of the ball, and his court vision is strong enough to blow the lid off of this offense.
Saric needs some polish and more strength. McDaniels has to complement his defense with a wider offensive array. Combo guard Tony Wroten, another piece of Philly's intriguing puzzle, must improve his decision-making and shot selection.
Those things take time, but Philly has plenty to spare.
"I see daylight here in this program," coach Brett Brown told reporters earlier this month. "Michael's three-point shot, Nerlens' progression at the foul line, Tony Wroten's assist-to-turnover ratio, all those types of things are development things that are our measurements this year. That's our report card and it's done with a very long lens."
So, just how long does that lens need to be?
The Sixers might be another four seasons from making a significant playoff run—two years to get Embiid and Saric (hopefully) into the action, a third to blend everything together—but they could speed up the process by landing a front-line free agent in the coming summers.
Philly needs more scoring on the wing. While it could address that void during next year's draft, Hinkie takes players based on talent—not need. To that end, ESPN Insider Jeff Goodman (subscription required) has the Sixers snagging Duke center Jahlil Okafor with the No. 1 pick in his 2015 mock draft.
Although the Sixers would love to get their mitts on a Kevin Durant or LeBron James (as would any team), it could be a while before the biggest names start to truly consider the City of Brotherly Love as a free-agent destination. Plus, if Noel and Embiid capitalize on their mammoth-sized potential, Philly might already have its franchise player(s).
Moving to the second tier of targets, a do-it-all swingman like Nicolas Batum would make a ton of sense. The 25-year-old is set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2016, and his ability to fill a number of roles at either end of the floor should put him high on Philly's radar. His freakish physical profile and next-level athleticism might move him to the top of that list.
The Sixers should also consider making a run at Washington Wizards sharpshooter Bradley Beal. As a restricted free agent in 2016, he could be harder to land, but they have to give it a shot. This team wants to emphasize the three ball (they took 22.5 a night last season, 13th most in the league), but it doesn't yet have the shooters to do so (31.2 three-point percentage, 30th).
If the organization feels like buying sooner than that, Golden State Warriors marksman Klay Thompson could be an option next summer if he doesn't ink an extension before the start of this season. Like Beal, though, Thompson would also be a restricted free agent, so signing him could take a certain amount of luck.
There are so many different ways for the Sixers to go, and they have the freedom to explore them all. Yet, amid that flexibility, there is a central direction they would like to follow and a clear plan guiding them along.
Even if this is an agonizing journey for now, the fact this franchise is moving to the beat of one drum puts it ahead of a lot of the teams it will trail in the standings this season.
"Strange as it sounds, Philadelphia is in a position many teams should envy," wrote Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes. "It has no long-term commitments to players it doesn't want, owns all of its own picks as well as tons more from other teams and, best of all, has patient ownership and management that isn't intimidated by the process ahead."
Patience is truly a virtue, and in this case, it could be the key that unlocks the Sixers' championship door.
The dark clouds of uncertainty hanging above this franchise make it hard to see what sits on the horizon, but look long enough and you'll catch that unmistakable glimmer of hope.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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