5 Bold Predictions for Oklahoma City Thunder in 2014-15 Season
What do we know for sure about the 2014-15 Oklahoma City Thunder?
We know that they'll be very good. The Thunder have won at least 70 percent of their games for the past three seasons. The team has gone deep into the playoffs in each of the last four years, including a trip to the NBA Finals in 2011-12 and two other runs that have ended in the Western Conference Finals.
However, despite that impressive run, the Thunder have gone home empty-handed every year. Despite having a devastating scoring tandem in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the team has found ways to fall short. Injuries to Westbrook and Serge Ibaka have derailed the team's promise the last two postseasons.
This could be the last season that this core stays intact. Super reserve Reggie Jackson is a free agent at season's end. Durant tests the market after next season. Westbrook's contract expires the year after that.
That means head coach Scott Brooks will have a mandate to bring home a title this year. Can he get the job done, or will the team be forced to look elsewhere? What else can we expect from one of the NBA's best teams this season?
Here are five bold predictions for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2014-15.
Center Kendrick Perkins Will Be Traded
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Head coach Scott Brooks' unbridled loyalty is the only thing that may keep the word "starter" next to Kendrick Perkins' name this season. The 29-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career (3.4 points, 4.9 rebounds per game) and has second-year man Steven Adams breathing down his neck.
Despite Perkins' decline and Adams' upside, the former could still emerge from training camp as the starting center once again, per Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman:
"The rest of (general manager Sam) Presti’s preseason press conference, which was littered with defense-first, stick-to-the-plan statements, would indicate that Perkins remains the favorite to keep his starting role."
Whether that holds true or not, Perkins' days with the team are numbered. He's a free agent next summer, and the team already has an in-house replacement. It would make sense for the team try to get something for their aging big man.
While Perkins is limited offensively, he could be appealing to someone needing defensive help in the post. Also, a team looking to free up future cap space may be willing to trade for Perkins' expiring contract ($9.1 million). If necessary, the Thunder could add a draft pick or a young prospect like Perry Jones III to sweeten the deal.
Either way, Perkins has more value to the team as a trade chip than as a member of the rotation this season.
Serge Ibaka Will Be an All-Star
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With former Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kevin Love no longer in the Western Conference, there's suddenly an opening for a big man on the All-Star team. The favorite to fill that spot is New Orleans Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis, who got his first All-Star nod last season.
Another strong contender will be Oklahoma City power forward Serge Ibaka. Like Davis, Ibaka is an elite shot-blocker with an emerging offensive game. He averaged a career-high 15.1 points per game last year to go along with his 8.8 rebounds and 2.7 blocks.
Over the last three seasons, Ibaka has worked to add a new wrinkle to his scoring arsenal. During that span, he has shot at least 33 percent from the three-point line. As a result, the 25-year-old is ready to classify himself as a "stretch four," per Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman.
"I’m already a stretch four. I don't just shoot three on the top, I’m already a stretch four.” Ibaka told reporters after practice.
While Ibaka may not be the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki or Ryan Anderson, he still shot 38.3 percent from behind the arc last season (23-of-60). By adding a more versatile offensive game to his already impressive defensive skills, Ibaka could become the most complete power forward in the league this season.
A nightly stat line of 17 points, 10 boards and two blocks isn't out of the realm of possibility. That, along with the void left by Love, should translate into Ibaka earning the first All-Star nod of his career.
Kevin Durant Will Finish Just Outside of the Top 3 in Scoring
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Kevin Durant has been the scoring champion for four of the last five years. In 2012-13, he lost to New York Knicks superstar Carmelo Anthony by a fraction of a point per game (28.7 to 28.1). He hasn't finished outside of the top two in scoring since the 2008-09 season.
That is, until now.
The theory that Durant will finish outside of the top three this season is more about how the stars are aligned than anything negative toward the reigning MVP. With key reserve Reggie Jackson likely to have an increased role and Serge Ibaka emerging as an offensive threat, there are suddenly more scoring options in Oklahoma City.
When you throw in the presence of Russell Westbrook, and Steven Adams being potentially a better offensive weapon than Kendrick Perkins, it's not inconceivable that Durant's scoring numbers take a hit this year. Plus, relying less on Durant to carry the offense every night will keep him fresh for the postseason.
Durant was so spent after last season that he bowed out of playing in the FIBA World Cup because of fatigue, according to a statement from Team USA. He could afford to take a slight step back and let the other guys light up the scoreboard.
Durant will still be the No. 1 scoring option in Oklahoma City, but it's possible some of the league's other elite scorers pass him this season. Anthony is going to be in the running for another scoring crown. Guys like the Houston Rockets' James Harden, Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry and Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James should be near the top as well.
As for Durant, 26-27 points per game seems reasonable. It will be enough to lead the Thunder and put him among the league's best scorers. It just won't put him in the top three.
Reggie Jackson Wins 6th Man of the Year
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With his play over the last two seasons, Reggie Jackson has earned a bigger role this year. However, what that role is has yet to be determined. If it were up to Jackson, he'd be in the starting lineup, per DailyThunder's Royce Young.
"I want it. But I’m happy if not. There’s nothing I can do about. I’m just going to go out and find ways to help this team improve and help be the best we can be … I feel strong about it. I want to be the starter.”
The decision is ultimately up to head coach Scott Brooks who, according to Young, was non-committal about the starting lineup at Media Day. The team has many contenders for the other guard spot alongside Russell Westbrook, including third-year man Jeremy Lamb and free-agent addition Anthony Morrow.
Still, Brooks' reluctance to anoint Jackson as the starter, despite his recent production, suggests he sees the 24-year old as more of a super sub (a la Manu Ginobili with the San Antonio Spurs). If the team does intend on bringing Jackson off the bench, he would be a top contender for Sixth Man of the Year.
Regardless of whether he starts or not, Jackson is going to see increased minutes this year. He'll play alongside Westbrook as well as sub in for him. That will give Jackson the opportunity to both emerge as a third scoring option with the starters and prove himself capable of carrying the offense on the second unit.
Jackson nearly tripled his scoring output, from 5.3 points per game in 2012-13 to 13.1 last year. He logged 28.5 minutes per game in 2013-14, playing mostly in relief of the injured Westbrook. His performance in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals (32 points, nine boards in an OT win) showed that he's able to put the team on his back when he has to.
Jackson will also be motivated by the lure of a new contract next summer. After seeing Eric Bledsoe sign a five-year, $70 million deal (per ESPN's Brian Windhorst) with the Phoenix Suns this offseason, it's understandable if Jackson plays this season with dollar signs in his eyes and a fire in his belly.
All of these factors could lead to a huge year for Jackson. If he isn't named the starter, a nightly clip of 16 points and four or five assists is still within range. That's slightly less than what reigning Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford produced last season (18.6 points, 3.2 assists) but will still be enough to earn Jackson the award.
The Oklahoma City Thunder Will Be 2014-15 NBA Champions
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The past four seasons have been close but no cigar for the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can attribute their failures to bad luck with injuries, poor coaching or just getting outplayed by better teams.
This year, things will be different. With the additions of shooter Anthony Morrow and rookie Mitch McGary, the team is much deeper. Center Steven Adams will continue to get better, and his competition with Kendrick Perkins for the starting job should bring out the best in both men.
In Reggie Jackson, the Thunder have a guard capable of producing either with the second unit or alongside the starters. Oklahoma City hasn't had that kind of presence since James Harden was traded a couple of years ago. The last time Harden, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played together, the team made the NBA Finals.
With Durant's free agency approaching, the pressure to succeed is at an all-time high this season. Each year that ends without a championship is another reason for Durant to start looking elsewhere in free agency. As the best player in the league without a ring, all eyes will be on the reigning MVP this year.
Westbrook will earn his share of attention as well. After being proclaimed "the best point guard in basketball" by head coach Scott Brooks, Westbrook will need to take his game to another level to prove worthy of that label.
However, the most important factor in the Thunder's ability to win the title will be Brooks himself. Despite having one of the best teams in basketball, Brooks has been routinely out-coached in the postseason. He has to realize the temperature is rising underneath his seat and that his job is on the line. He'll either adapt or be unemployed.
The Thunder have a championship roster. They have the league's best scorer in Durant and its most explosive point guard in Westbrook. Ibaka is a factor on both ends of the court. Jackson will be a huge spark off the bench. Role players such as Adams, Morrow, Jeremy Lamb and Nick Collison will be key contributors as well.
The San Antonio Spurs will be the team to beat out West, but they are an aging team that just got a year older. The Thunder have the talent and youth to defeat the defending champs, just like they did in the Western Conference Finals in 2012.
With their backs against the walls, the Thunder will respond by finally winning the big one.
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