NFL Picks Week 4: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Picks
Three weeks into the 2014 NFL season and only three unbeaten teams remain.
That's a little surprising, but hardly a shock.
The shock kicks in when you see that those undefeated teams are the Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles.
This is what makes the NFL great, though. Any given Sunday and all that.
Two of the league's undefeated clubs (Cincinnati and Arizona) are off in Week 4, joining four other teams on the first bye week of the season.
The Eagles, however, will be traveling west to face a suddenly floundering San Francisco 49ers team in one of Week 4's biggest matchups.
Let's take a look at how Bleacher Report's NFL National and Division Lead Writers expect the week to play out.
If it cooperates. Which it won't.
Once again, it's what makes the NFL so great.
Roll Call/Standings
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One thing's for sure: Week 3 went a lot better for our experts than Week 2 did.
After a Week 2 in which only one pundit got 10 games right, Week 3 saw 13 of the 16 voters hit that benchmark. NFL National Lead Writer Matt Bowen led the way, nailing 13 of the 16 matchups this week.
NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson also got off to a strong start with 12 correct selections.
In fact, only a single prognosticator (AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown) had more picks wrong than right in Week 3.
Chris Simms leads the way through three weeks, but NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon and NFC North Lead Writer Zach Kruse are right on his heels.
(Season standings listed in parentheses)
Matt Bowen: NFL National Lead Writer 13-3 (27-21)
Gary Davenport: NFL Analyst 10-6 (29-19)
Mike Freeman: NFL National Lead Writer 10-6 (28-20)
Erik Frenz: AFC East Lead Writer 10-6 (25-23)
Brad Gagnon: NFC East Lead Writer 11-5 (31-17)
Andrea Hangst: AFC North Lead Writer 11-5 (26-22)
Christopher Hansen: AFC West Lead Writer 9-7 (24-24)
Zach Kruse: NFC North Lead Writer 12-4 (31-17)
Matt Miller: NFL National Lead Writer 11-5 (28-20)
Ty Schalter: NFL National Lead Writer 12-4 (25-23)
Michael Schottey: NFL National Lead Writer 11-5 (26-22)
Chris Simms: Former NFL Quarterback, Video Correspondent 12-4 (32-16)
Brent Sobleski: NFC South Lead Writer 9-7 (24-24)
Mike Tanier: NFL National Lead Writer 11-5 (24-24)
Sean Tomlinson: NFC West Lead Writer 12-4 (12-4)
Aggregate: 11-5 (27-21)
New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)
2 of 14
The Pick: Washington Redskins (14-2)
Well, you can't blame Kirk Cousins.
Yes, the Washington Redskins fell to the Philadelphia Eagles 37-34 in Week 3, but the third-year signal-caller was brilliant starting in place of an injured Robert Griffin, passing for 427 yards and three scores.
As Mike Sando of ESPN.com wrote (subscription required), the quarterback controversy in the nation's capital is now full-blown:
"Cousins opened his first offensive series Sunday with a pass thrown 17 yards past the line of scrimmage into a tight window and right on target to Pierre Garcon for a 19-yard gain. With that aggressive opening call, coach Jay Gruden was telling us he viewed Cousins as an asset, not as a liability. And he was right. Cousins has now passed for 677 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in less than two full games this season. You can bet the Redskins are eager to see more.
"
It would certainly seem that our voters saw something they liked in Cousins, with Washington the overwhelming pick despite the Giants' big win over the Houston Texans in Week 3.
So if Washington winds up trading Robert Griffin III to the St. Louis Rams, does that make the last two years in the NFL like that season of Dallas when Bobby Ewing was dead—only he wasn't?
Just curious.
Giants: Bowen, Kruse
Redskins: Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
3 of 14
The Pick: Chicago Bears (11-5)
Don't look now, but all is not well in Titletown.
Were it not for a frantic comeback against the New York Jets in Week 2, the Green Bay Packers would be an 0-3 football team. In a listless loss at Detroit last week, the Packers played like an 0-3 football team.
Running back Eddie Lacy is averaging a dismal 3.1 yards per carry this year and lost a fumble against Detroit that was returned for a touchdown.
Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy was blunt when asked about the state of the ground game while speaking with Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
"Let's be honest," McCarthy said, "if you have a run and they're playing two-deep, you should be running the ball. I think that's elementary football there."
However, NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter doesn't see things improving when the Packers travel to Soldier Field on Sunday:
"Huge game in the NFC North, as Chicago hosts Green Bay. Jay Cutler’s playing some of his best ball, and Rodgers some of his worst. Neither team’s run game is working, so it may come down to which defense makes more plays. I see Chicago getting a little revenge for last year’s Week 17 contest.
"
The panel agrees, with the Bears a 2-to-1 pick.
Packers: Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, McCown, Simms
Bears: Bowen, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
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Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
4 of 14
The Pick: Buffalo Bills (9-7)
In many ways, the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are similar teams.
Both have more talent on defense than on offense. This isn't to say that these teams don't have offensive firepower, but it's dampened by quarterbacks who are...
Well, they're EJ Manuel and Ryan Fitzpatrick is who they are.
Both teams also started the season 2-0 before being beaten soundly in Week 3.
So why are the Bills the pick then, on the road no less?
For starters, the Bills pose the Texans problems for one particularly glaring reason. If Fitzpatrick is forced to the air, as the Texans were against the Giants, then...
Well, he's Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Not only is running back Arian Foster's availability for Week 4 still very much up in the air, but the Bills rank sixth in the NFL in run defense, allowing fewer than 84 yards a game.
Even then this is no sure bet, and frankly, I took Buffalo only so we wouldn't have an 8-8 tie.
Because I hate ties.
Either way, someone's coming out of this game 3-1 and in first place of its division at the quarter pole.
Bills: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Hansen, McCown, Schalter, Tanier, Tomlinson
Texans: Frenz, Hangst, Kruse, Miller, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
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The Pick: Indianapolis Colts (16-0)
After three weeks, it's looking more and more like the Titans' big Week 1 win at Kansas City says more about how bad the Chiefs are than how good Tennessee is.
The Titans have since been pounded in successive weeks by the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals, and adding injury to insult, starting quarterback Jake Locker hurt his wrist against Cincinnati.
Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt told Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com he wasn't sure when the injury occurred, or if Locker would be able to face the Colts this Sunday:
"It was after the game (when he couldn't hold a ball). I can't speak to where he was in the game. It got bent up under him at some point. He did hit his hand a couple times, that happens during the course of a game. But he did something where he strained part of his wrist on his right hand.
"
So, to recap, we have a reeling Titans team that's been beaten badly twice in a row, on the road against the defending division champions.
And they might be starting Charlie Whitehurst's hair at quarterback.
This could get ugly.
Titans: Charlie...Whitehurst
Colts: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Carolina Panthers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
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The Pick: Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Fans of good old-fashioned ground-and-pound football have had this game circled on their calendar for weeks, anxious to see the duel between running backs Fozzy Whittaker of the Panthers and Lorenzo Taliaferro of the Ravens.
Wait, what?
Sure enough, thanks to the injuries that have hit both teams at the position, those are the household names who could be leading their respective ground games on Sunday.
Taliaferro, a rookie, gained 91 yards on 18 carries for the Ravens in a win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 3, drawing the praise of head coach John Harbaugh, according to Ryan Mink of the team's website.
“I think the results speak for themselves with Lorenzo,” Harbaugh said. “It was downhill running, he was physical, he was hard to tackle. That’s an element that is a big plus for an offense.”
The Panthers are even more banged up in the backfield. DeAngelo Williams missed last week's game. Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert were forced from Sunday night's loss to Pittsburgh, with Tolbert suffering a fractured leg that has landed him on short-term injured reserve.
Throw in a banged-up quarterback in Cam Newton, whose sore ribs were obviously a problem against the Steelers, and only a pair of our pundits predict the Panthers will prevail.
As Schalter said, “I think Carolina’s much better than they showed in Week 3, but Baltimore’s going to be a tough out, especially in Baltimore.”
Panthers: Frenz, McCown
Ravens: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
7 of 14
The Pick: Detroit Lions (14-2)
In all honesty, the Jets are almost 3-0. Had they been able to hold the lead against the Green Bay Packers or not committed a couple of back-breaking turnovers against the Chicago Bears, the Jets would be undefeated.
Of course, if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their butts when they hop. "Almost" doesn't get you much in the NFL.
However, AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz thinks the Jets have it in them to knock off a Detroit team that's looked dominant at home but shaky on the road so far in 2014:
"The New York Jets have lost two straight, but they've been competitive in both. The Detroit Lions still love to throw the ball, which will only give that vicious front four of the Jets more opportunities to tee off on Matthew Stafford. If Geno Smith can avoid dumb mistakes (and that's a big if), the Jets can pull off an upset at home.
"
The Jets pass rush had better get to Stafford, because right now the New York secondary couldn't cover Lyndon Johnson, much less Calvin Johnson.
And that's why the overwhelming majority of our panel picked the Lions.
Lions: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Gagnon, Hangst, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Jets: Frenz, Hansen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
8 of 14
The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (16-0)
After getting blasted 56-14 by the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-3 and look very much like the worst team in the NFC (at least).
However, don't tell that to offensive tackle Demar Dotson, who told Pat Yasinskas of ESPN.com the Bucs are headed to the Steel City this week with the intention of surprising some people:
"I don’t want to see 0-4. This football team doesn’t want to see 0-4. It’s going to be a big challenge for us to go out there. Can we beat Pittsburgh? Yeah, we can, but it starts today.
"
Defensive end Michael Johnson also tried to be optimistic:
"Everybody has to stay positive, keep believing and just trust in the system and trust the guys around you and the work and effort we’re putting in. It’s going to turn in our favor. You’ll see. We’ll get this going. When we get it rolling it will be like clockwork. I’m excited to get to that point, but it’s a process.
"
So what part of the process was getting down 56-0 in Atlanta exactly? Rock bottom?
Our voters appear positive of something as well.
Positive that the Buccaneers aren't beating the Steelers on the road.
Buccaneers: Did you see the Atlanta game?
Steelers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) [London]
9 of 14
The Pick: Miami Dolphins (9-7)
This game's enough to make you feel sorry for the British.
The annual London games that have become something of a recent tradition in the NFL are often sloppy, lopsided or both. The travel and logistics nightmare that is flying an entire team across the Atlantic takes its toll.
Add in a pair of teams that aren't playing sharp football right now, and you don't exactly have the makings of a real instant classic.
In fact, things have gotten so bad in Miami, according to Surya Fernandez of Fox Sports Florida, that head coach Joe Philbin wouldn't commit to Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback when the Dolphins face the Raiders:
"Really, what we do every single week is the same. We take a look at our roster, we decide who are the 46 players that we can take to the game that can help us win the football game, and how can we best utilize them. So we'll do that again.
"
Still, the Dolphins have enough distractions as they head across the pond without adding a quarterback change, so Tannehill will probably be awarded one more opportunity to right the ship against the winless Raiders.
Just over half the voters expect Tannehill to accomplish that goal, at least for now.
Dolphins: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Kruse, Miller, Simms, Sobleski
Raiders: Hangst, Hansen, McCown, Schalter, Schottey, Tanier, Tomlinson
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)
10 of 14
The Pick: San Diego Chargers (16-0)
I've caught quite a bit of flak in this space so far this season for being "disrespectful" toward the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I'm not sure how I can disrespect a team that's been outscored 119-27 over its last 10 quarters of football, but hey, it's all about perspective, right?
The truth is, I want to believe in rookie quarterback Blake Bortles, who took over for Chad Henne in last week's loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Bortles looked outstanding in the preseason and certainly better than Henne last week.
Still, as Brian Billick pointed out on NFL.com, expectations need to be tempered with any first-year passer:
"What we saw from Bortles in the second half of Sunday's loss to Indy—14 of 24 for 223 yards, two touchdowns and two picks—is about what we can expect from him this season. He is likely to have a typical rookie year, particularly with the supporting cast he's been given, completing less than 60 percent of his passes and posting a touchdown-to-interception ratio that is basically even. But this is more about 2015 than 2014.
"
Add in an offensive line that's allowed the most sacks in the NFL by far this season, and while I want to believe, I don't this week.
Jaguars: Look at the bright side. Bortles is playing.
Chargers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
11 of 14
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Yep, you read that right. Three-quarters of our voters picked the reeling 49ers to knock the Eagles from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Make no mistake: The 49ers are in trouble. In successive weeks, the team has squandered a halftime lead. Toss in the Eagles' absolute dominance of their three opponents in the second half this year, and it's a recipe for trouble.
San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh, while speaking with Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News, allowed that the Niners need to change some things quick.
"We've got a week to get it fixed. Sunday at 1 o'clock," Harbaugh said Monday. "That's the challenge for our ballclub. We've been in this position before, where there's ebbs and flows to the season. We're in it now."
So why the Niners then?
As NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter put it, “The Philly defense might just be what Colin Kaepernick needs to get back on track."
Philadelphia's defense remains spotty at best, and it can't keep digging early holes any more than the 49ers can afford to keep rolling over in the second half.
Something's got to give here, and the consensus says it's Philly.
Eagles: Frenz, Gagnon, Sobleski, Tomlinson
49ers: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Tanier
Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
12 of 14
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons (14-2)
The Atlanta Falcons jumped all over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. It was 28-0 before anyone realized what happened.
However, that was in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan said on his weekly radio show in Atlanta (per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com) that the Falcons need similar execution this week when they travel to play outside at Minnesota:
"I think we've got to start off fast. I think last time we were on the road, we did not start off fast. And the other thing is, we've got to convert third downs. The two games that we've played well, we've converted third downs at a high level. So, we need to start fast and convert on third down.
"
For the Vikings, the future is now. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will make his first career start Sunday against Atlanta, and offensive coordinator Norv Turner told Jarrett Bell of USA Today that he expects the youngster to shine.
"I knew he'd be ready," Turner said. "Now he gets the chance to practice all week and get ready for an opponent."
Bridgewater may well have a good game against a so-so Atlanta defense, but it's hard to imagine the Vikings offense being able to keep pace with an Atlanta squad that laid 56 on the Buccaneeers last week.
Falcons: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Sobleski, Tomlinson
Vikings: Simms, Tanier
New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
13 of 14
The Pick: New Orleans Saints (14-2)
When the schedule first came out, this game had shootout written all over it. Tony Romo versus Drew Brees. Dez Bryant versus Jimmy Graham. Defense?
HA!
Things haven't gone according to plan for either team. Romo's bad back is clearly still a problem, to the point that the Cowboys have morphed into a running team. Brees hasn't thrown for 300 yards since Week 1.
Both offenses are moving the ball, but neither is doing it in the video game fashion we expected.
The vote's a surprising landslide for the visitors, but NFL National Lead Writer Michael Schottey was one of a pair of scribes who went with the Cowboys:
"On paper, New Orleans is the vastly superior team here, and I'm dreading the fact that I'm picking Dallas, but New Orleans has underachieved on the road and defensively can't match up with any of Dallas' offensive skill position talent. This prime-time game screams "Romo narrative," so it should be a high-scoring affair that he either pulls out in the end or throws away like a silly, silly interception.
"
However, it would appear that most of our voters are counting on that last thing to happen.
Saints: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Simms, Sobleski, Tanier, Tomlinson
Cowboys: Gagnon, Schottey
New England Patriots (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
14 of 14
The Pick: New England Patriots (15-1)
Speaking of out-of-sync offenses.
Outside of a lopsided win at Minnesota, the New England Patriots so far have looked nothing like the offensive juggernauts of a few seasons ago.
Through three games, the Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in total offense, and, as Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com wrote, this week's prime-time tilt in Kansas City presents its own problems:
"The Kansas City Chiefs rank fourth in the NFL in sacks per opponent pass play, which makes this game a bad match for a Patriots team that is struggling to protect quarterback Tom Brady.
Specifically, the Chiefs can bring the heat off the edge with outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. One way for the Patriots to combat that is to duplicate what they did on one of the key plays in their 16-9 victory over the Raiders this past Sunday—a 22-yard pass to tight end Rob Gronkowski on third-and-15 with 9:48 remaining.
On that play, the Patriots had Brady in the shotgun, lined up running backs Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen on either side of him and had them chip the edge rusher to their sides before releasing into pass routes. The chips by both running backs were effective in slowing down the rush, kept the pocket clean and gave Brady some rare time to step up in the pocket and deliver an accurate strike.
"
Of course, the Chiefs have had issues of their own this year, dropping their first two games before getting victory No. 1 last week in Miami.
However, Sean Keeler of Fox Sorts Kansas City thinks the Chiefs may be onto something over the past two weeks.
"The Chiefs," Keeler said, "look like the Chiefs again—or rather, they look like a bunch that won't run away (no pun intended) from their strength, a bunch with an identity, mission and mantra."
NFC South Lead Writer Brent Sobleski agrees, but "Upset Brent" is the only one of our experts who picked the Chiefs to win.
Patriots: Bowen, Davenport, Freeman, Frenz, Gagnon, Hangst, Hansen, Kruse, McCown, Miller, Schalter, Schottey, Simms, Tanier, Tomlinson
Chiefs: Sobleski
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