Ready or Not, Carmelo Anthony's Title Clock Is Officially Ticking
Though he just signed a new five-year max deal, Carmelo Anthony doesn't have time to wait for the New York Knicks to develop into a contender. Realistic or not, a championship must be his goal right now.
That does not seem to be the case for the 2014-15 season.
"I don't think we're that far away," Anthony said to ESPN.com, per Jeff Goodman. "People use 'rebuilding' too loosely."
In the same vein of offseason prognostication, Melo told PrimeraHora.com—translated by ESPN Deportes' Marly Rivera and reported by ESPNNewYork.com's Ian Begley—this: “I don’t expect to win a championship this year.” He continued:
"“That is something that takes time, and everything has to be [synchronized], from the front office to the players. We have a lot of work to do, but that is something that motivates me. I know we can start creating the basis for what [we want] to accomplish eventually. And this is a great start for the process.”
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Aggregating those two quotes, the Knicks cornerstone doesn't foresee a repeat of Mike Woodson's malaise-filled swan song.
With Derek Fisher taking over as coach and Phil Jackson in his first full season running the front office, Melo has faith in the organization's ability to build a winner, but not that one is built as-is.
From a realist's perspective, his summer state-of-the-Knicks outlook seems accurate. New York will have the cap space to lure another star to join Anthony in the 2015 offseason.
And after a year of implementing the triangle and establishing Melo as its centerpiece, the offense will be ready to run smoothly and efficiently, ranking among the league's elite beginning in 2015-16.
Even that future requires a healthy dose of idealism, particularly as it pertains to whatever free-agency sweepstakes in which Jackson will be embroiled. And it doesn't at all address defense—a unit even more maligned than New York's offense and without a system as storied and successful as the triangle coming in to replace it.
Unless the Knicks can nab Marc Gasol away from the Memphis Grizzlies—not to mention many other eager suitors—it's unclear who will anchor the Knicks defense and move the ball from the high post.
And even then, asking a star free agent to bring a championship immediately is a tall task.
Herein lies the paradox in discussing Melo's future in New York.
Because of the Jackson-led regime change, Anthony rejoining the Knicks is conceptually the same as Gasol potentially signing next summer, in that asking a star free agent to win now is unfair.
However, the inherent difficulty of a team winning in the season following a significant change is exactly why no season can be sacrificed without contention.
A winning record and a return to the playoffs aren't enough for Anthony. Establishing competent execution of a system during the regular season and proving its excellence in the playoffs are two totally different animals.
The Dallas Mavericks solved LeBron James' Miami Heat in the 2011 Finals before the King won the next two. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are still working out tweaks with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Even Jackson and Michael Jordan fell to the Bad Boys of the Detroit Pistons multiple times before launching the Chicago Bulls' '90s dynasty.
If Melo and the Knicks eke out a low playoff seed and make a meek first-round exit, even if it's against a team like Derrick Rose's Bulls or James' Cleveland Cavaliers, it wouldn't be enough.
In order to truly set New York up to win the 2016 title, the Knicks need to—at the very least—be competitive against the elite squads in the 2015 playoffs.
Granted, it's possible that even if the Knicks make no noise in the upcoming postseason, Melo and a new star friend could bring New York a title in their first shot together.
The ubuntu Boston Celtics did so right after Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen came to Paul Pierce's aid—though that team notably won with an unforgiving defense. That's another sign pointing toward Gasol being the right guy for the Knicks.
Whomever they sign, it's vital that New York gets a compatible and complementary second star, since the new blood will have to play an even larger role as Anthony ages.
According to analysis done by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, Melo's wins above replacement are projected to drop from 12.6 last season at age 29 down to 7.2 when he's 33.
Anticipating such a decline, Anthony may still be a major factor on a champion in the final year of his current contract, when he's expected to post a 6.0 WAR, per Silver, but he's likely to stay above 9.0 only for the next two seasons.
That's the sweet spot of his title window as a star, the period in which he can potentially carry the Knicks to a championship rather than get carried thereafter.
And that brings us back to the convoluted task at hand next season.
Melo needs to make a legitimate run at the Eastern Conference Finals. If the Knicks can make it that far, getting past one more Eastern foe wouldn't be far-fetched, and once in the Finals, even in the first season under Fish and Phil, anything is possible.
That said, New York will support Anthony with the likes of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Amar'e Stoudemire—familiar, flawed players in recent Knicks history, players no one could expect to help Melo go as far as he must in the 2015 playoffs.
Anthony and the Knicks will most likely fall short of such a lofty goal, and within the context of next season alone, that should not be considered a disappointment; the team simply has too many question marks and too little rim protection to ask for a shot at the Finals.
But when you consider each of Melo's next five seasons independently of the others, his whole title window begins to look even more fleeting: This year's an organizational pivot, next year is the first true shot at contention and then Anthony's skills will likely begin to betray him in a significant way.
When you look at it like that, the Knicks are starting a year behind. Only if Melo can lead New York to an unexpectedly strong season, one that gets people thinking about a title now rather than later, can he get his and the franchise's long-term aspirations on track.
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