5 Teams That Will Give New York Knicks Biggest Problems Next Season
If the upcoming season's strategic transition wasn't difficult enough for the New York Knicks, a deeper Eastern Conference is going to make a run at the playoffs even tougher.
Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler and Mike Woodson are out, and Jose Calderon, Cleanthony Early and Derek Fisher are in. But the Knicks are still an offense-first team with a porous defense, and their chances of immediate improvement seem slim.
In ESPN's summer forecast, analysts projected New York to go 37-45 and finish 10th in the East. That would give the Knicks an identical record to what they posted in 2013-14 but one slot further down in the standings.
A crop of stronger foes has as much to do with the Knicks' prediction as any feeling that they have made lateral moves this offseason. While the East appeared to be the Miami Heat and everyone else for much of last year (especially when the Indiana Pacers imploded), the East's middle class has built on late-season progress and offseason pickups and will enter 2014-15 significantly more formidable.
Important note: By focusing on that middle class, we're just accepting the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls, the new beasts of the East, as given headaches. Their smackdowns of New York won't come as any shock, and they won't be the Knicks' direct competition for a playoff spot.
With that disclaimer, let's start with a team that bolstered the Eastern playoff fringes, unexpectedly dropping down to that uncertain territory as the rest of the conference improved over the offseason.
5. Miami Heat
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Now that LeBron James has gone home and vaulted Cleveland into the contender ranks, Miami's playoff prospects are no longer guaranteed by any means.
Even so, the former dynastic franchise made some key signings to limit the setback that was the King's abdication.
Compared to LeBron, Luol Deng represents a major step back at small forward—not as athletic, not as positionally versatile, not as skilled on either end. But Deng nonetheless has a jack-of-all-trades game that will allow the Heat to retain a good portion of their prior identity.
Chris Bosh is now Miami's primary scoring forward, which means Deng won't be burdened with the vain pursuit of replicating James' output. Rather, Bosh will operate more from the high post, while Deng and Josh McRoberts, another summer signing, will see opportunities to spot up from deep and to create inside the arc.
That combination of three multifaceted forwards presents a nightmare for the Knicks in the post-Chandler era. Unless Cole Aldrich makes a gigantic leap forward this season, New York will have no plus interior defenders. Amar'e Stoudemire and Andrea Bargnani will get torched trying to defend any of Miami's frontcourt threats, while Carmelo Anthony, Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith will be average at best in those matchups.
Deng also provides a nice Melo stopper, which will force the Knicks to lean on J.R. Smith's and Tim Hardaway Jr.'s explosive but unreliable offense. New York needs at least two of those three to go off, or else the Miami forwards and Dwyane Wade, with his super-efficient inside scoring, will shoot the Knicks off the floor.
The new-look Heat still have a high floor, albeit with a significantly lower ceiling. Some strategic continuity and veteran steadiness will carry them to the postseason, and their many weapons will give them too much firepower for New York when they play.
4. Boston Celtics
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How is it that the veteran-laden Heat rank behind Brad Stephens' rebuilding Boston Celtics in terms of problems for the Knicks?
The answer is the difference between Mario Chalmers and Rajon Rondo.
Miami's point guards work as spot-up shooters when they're hitting and can hold their own on the defensive end, but they won't provide any off-the-bounce penetration. Even though Felton's miserable defense is no longer New York's problem, Calderon is slow-footed even for a guy who'll be 33 when the season starts. Speedy slashers will be unguardable.
Between Rondo's driving and dishing on a now-healthy ACL and Avery Bradley's water-bugging, that's two Celtics the Knicks will have absolutely no hope of containing. They'll gash New York on offense—not even Iman Shumpert can consistently stay in front of Rondo at 100 percent—and wreak havoc on the other end. Calderon is very careful with the ball, but Rondo, Bradley and Marcus Smart will hassle the Knicks into bunches of turnovers.
With so much attention being paid to the little guys, Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger will be the beneficiaries in the form of open looks and easy scoring opportunities. Even if no Boston big will scare the Knicks as a scorer in the paint, the Celtics have enough talent to beat New York with their perimeter game.
That might not be enough to get Boston to the playoffs or even above the Knicks in the East; if Boston fulfills Rondo's trade wishes, per ESPN's Jackie MacMullan (h/t James Herbert of CBS Sports), that poor finish is all but guaranteed.
Even so, Boston is the sort of lesser team that has the particular blend of players to exploit New York's biggest defensive weakness. With no rim protector and a sluggish set of guards, the Knicks will have a much harder time than it might seem to stop the Celtics.
3. Atlanta Hawks
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Of any team in the East, the Atlanta Hawks might be best-equipped to beat the Knicks both inside and out.
Jeff Teague isn't an elite passer in the Rondo mold, but he has the top-end quickness to dart into the lane and enough vision to find the open man deep when the defense collapses.
And boy, do the Hawks have the shooters to supplement Teague's penetration. Kyle Korver hit 47 percent of his threes last season, and defenses have to pay attention to everyone from DeMarre Carroll to Paul Millsap to Pero Antic beyond the arc and particularly in the corners. If a new Hawk like Thabo Sefolosha can emerge as a steady deep threat, Atlanta could surround Teague with shooting at every position.
As devastating as that attack could be, Atlanta's best look comes when its best player bangs in the paint.
Al Horford was still recovering from a torn pectoral when the Hawks unleashed their all-shooting lineups with Antic at center and pushed the Pacers to seven games in the first round of the playoffs. At 6'11", 260 pounds, Antic has prototypical size, but Horford is Atlanta's only center option who can bully defenders on the block, knock down mid-range jumpers, block shots and stop opposing big scorers.
Planting Horford inside exploits every weakness of New York's D: It can't contain Teague, can't cover all the shooting and can't consistently guard a big with Horford's offensive variety.
The only reason Atlanta ranks so low on this list is its solid-but-unspectacular defense and its modest talent level. From an offensive X's-and-O's standpoint, the Hawks are the Knicks' worst nightmare.
2. Charlotte Hornets
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What the Charlotte Hornets lack in outside shooting, they more than make up in their ability to punish the Knicks inside the arc.
This is the point that we remember that, back when they were still the Bobcats, this team allowed Carmelo Anthony to drop a Knicks record 62 points on them.
That performance is too special to ever be discounted, but it's more an example of how otherworldly Melo can be at his best than it is a true indicator of how Charlotte defends him. Anthony shot 23-of-25 in that game; in his other three meetings with the Cats, he shot a combined 31-of-72 and scored 80 total points.
So don't blame Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for his opponent's historic onslaught; MKG is still a rangy, athletic defender. And now Lance Stephenson joins him on the wing for a Charlotte defense that ranked sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions last season.
He and Kemba Walker will join the cavalcade of quick ball-handlers turning the corner and driving into the teeth of the Knicks defense, and both are creative enough finishers to put up points even without multiple sharpshooters surrounding them.
Walker will benefit from getting to work off the ball more and without the defense's attention as the sole offensive initiator, while Al Jefferson will enjoy the added focus on the guard play. The Knicks won't be able to fend off those drivers and throw multiple men at Jefferson. And short of that, one of the league's strongest and craftiest post players will feast on any individual defender.
Charlotte will beat the Knicks like a team from the '90s would—with conservative, physical D and plenty of two-pointers. The Hornets lack the spacing to stretch the New York defense and expose its flaws, but they're skilled and balanced enough to beat the Knicks inside anyway.
1. Washington Wizards
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As everything does with the Washington Wizards, their New York domination begins with John Wall.
As Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal points out in his evaluation of the NBA's best passers, Wall has made an art out of creating open corner threes for his teammates. Washington's arsenal is expanding from Bradley Beal to Paul Pierce to the burgeoning Otto Porter Jr. and Glen Rice Jr., so Wall will have no shortage of targets when he drives.
That penetration is dangerous enough to the Knicks on its own. Wall is 6'3" and tough enough to finish through contact inside, but given his blistering speed, he often does not have to. He has a legitimate argument with the likes of Ty Lawson—though Wall is four inches taller—and Wall has the awareness and body control to determine and execute the right play while barreling through the lane at full speed.
Fromal notes that Wall's 100-miles-per-hour approach to point guard play comes with one drawback: turnovers.
Fortunately for him, the Knicks are not blessed with a great many disruptive guys in the passing lane. Shumpert belongs in that category, as does Pablo Prigioni, but he's even slower than Calderon and likely won't even be able to share the court with Wall at all, lest he get embarrassed on both ends.
Combine Wall's dynamism, Beal's rising stardom, the imposing combo of Marcin Gortat and Nene inside and a deep group of wing shooters, and the Wizards just have too many good things going for them for the Knicks to even hope to stop them.
Barring injury to Wall, Washington should get home court in the first round without too much trouble. The Wizards are decidedly not in the class of legitimate title contenders like the Cavs and Bulls, so we can still talk about the Wiz as a team that the Knicks could potentially compete with.
And yet they can't. Washington will sweep New York next season; head coach Randy Wittman will be content to let Carmelo have his way on offense while every Wizard has his way on the other end of the floor.
The Knicks have no answers at all for this opponent. All they can do is hope for good luck or at least that their Washington losses aren't the difference between a playoff spot and another season on the wrong side of the bubble.
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