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Predicting the X-Factor for Every NBA Team Entering 2014-15 Season

Alec NathanSep 7, 2014

With a busy summer of roster construction behind us, it's time to preview how every team can maximize its potential next season. 

But what exactly is an X-factor?  

In this case, it will be defined as a player, tactical adjustment or stylistic trait that is presumed to have a considerable impact on how successful a team ultimately is. 

Whether it's Andre Drummond and the Pistons' success in Stan Van Gundy's new offensive scheme or the health of franchise centerpieces like Derrick Rose and Al Horford, there's no shortage of storylines that can be crafted from this wide-ranging group of X-factors. 

All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise. 

Atlanta Hawks

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X-Factor: Al Horford's health

In order for the Atlanta Hawks to reach their full potential under head coach Mike Budenholzer, they'll need a bit of luck in the medical department. 

Specifically, we're talking about the health of center Al Horford, who missed significant portions of the 2011-12 and 2013-14 seasons with torn pectoral muscles. 

All told, Horford has missed a combined 116 games over the last three seasons, including a whopping 53 last year. 

Those numbers are particularly tough to swallow when you consider Atlanta limited opponents to 100.7 points per 100 possessions with Horford on the floor last season, according to NBA.com, while the team's offensive rating jumped 1.3 points with Horford patrolling the low blocks. 

Lined up alongside reigning All-Star Paul Millsap, Horford and the Hawks could boast the league's most potent starting frontcourt combination if the 28-year-old can stay on the court this season. 

Boston Celtics

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X-Factor: Jeff Green's efficiency 

Jeff Green led the Boston Celtics in scoring last season, but that title means little without some very necessary context. 

Sure, Green averaged what appeared to be a steady 16.9 points, but he required 14.3 shots per night to reach that new career high. 

As a result, Green shot a subpar 41.2 percent from the field while knocking down just 34.1 percent of his threes. 

But here's the scarier part: The Celtics, who possessed one of the league's most anemic offenses last season (No. 27 overall in efficiency), were actually four points worse per 100 offensive possessions with Green on the floor, according to NBA.com

Factor in a sub-optimal player efficiency rating of 13.1 and putrid mid-range shooting percentages (25.2 percent from 10-16 feet and 33.6 percent between 16 feet and the three-point line), and it's clear Green has to refine his inefficient tendencies in order to be considered anything close to an offensive cornerstone. 

Brooklyn Nets

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X-Factor: Deron Williams' reemergence as an offensive Alpha dog

In order for the Brooklyn Nets to be considered among the contenders for a postseason berth in the Eastern Conference, we'll need to see some significant improvement from Deron Williams. 

Williams' 2013-14 campaign was marred by ankle injuries and an inability to find his groove on the offensive end, which is why he's entering a make-or-break season, according to Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey

"

Last season, he didn't play quite like the team-leading superstar [Nets owner Mikhail] Prokhorov is shelling out millions to. His averages of 14.3 points and 6.1 assists marked his least productive campaign since 2005-06.

Looking forward, health is important, but a recent coaching change could help too. Lionel Hollins, who helped develop Mike Conley into a borderline All-Star in Memphis, is now in charge.

"

But despite Williams' down year, he was still a key cog who kept the Nets offense functioning at relatively normal levels. 

Per NBA.com, there was an eight-point disparity per 100 offensive possessions in the positive direction when Williams was on the floor last season, while the Nets just barely managed to post an offensive rating of 100 with him off the floor. 

With his field-goal and three-point percentages last season hovering at or above career averages, Williams needs to hope his usage rate spikes (second-lowest mark of his career last season under Jason Kidd) in Hollins' new system. 

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Charlotte Hornets

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X-Factor: Improved perimeter scoring

In order for the Charlotte Hornets' ascent up the Eastern Conference standings to become a reality, the team needs to improve its efficiency on jump shooting. 

While the defense carried Steve Clifford's club to a record of 43-39 last season, the Hornets ranked No. 24 overall in offensive efficiency, producing a meager 103.6 points per 100 possessions. 

As a result, it shouldn't surprise that Charlotte ranked 27th in threes attempted, 25th in triples made and 23rd in three-point percentage. 

Additionally, Charlotte graded out at No. 22 overall when it came to spot-up shooting, generating 0.93 points per possession while shooting 36.9 percent from the field, according to Synergy Sports (subscription required). 

Coincidentally, spot-ups accounted for 20.4 percent of Charlotte's offensive possessions, the most of any one play type, per Synergy. 

Lance Stephenson's arrival should help in the drive-and-kick department, but it'll be rotational weapons who help take the pressure off of Charlotte's stars by knocking down open shots from the perimeter. 

Chicago Bulls

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X-Factor: Derrick Rose's health

When discussing the Chicago Bulls, anything and everything revolves around the health of point guard Derrick Rose. 

While Rose has looked spry (but horribly inefficient) throughout FIBA World Cup play, it's hard not to hold your breath every time he hits the deck, even if it is in relatively routine fashion. 

But make no mistake: Scares be damned, a healthy Rose could propel the Bulls to the top of the Eastern Conference and make them worthy adversaries of LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers. 

With Rose sidelined, the Bulls haven't posted an offensive rating greater than 103.5 the last two seasons. However, a healthy Rose mixed with the frontcourt stylings of Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson could give Chicago one of the East's most complete attacks. 

As head coach Tom Thibodeau pines for an offense that can match the lofty standards set by his defense, it'll be Rose's health that ultimately dictates Chicago's level of success. 

Cleveland Cavaliers

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X-Factor: The chemistry between Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James

The Cleveland Cavaliers' ability to defend—and protect the rim, as general manager David Griffin has already discussed—may very well determine the team's ceiling. 

But since the Cavaliers are engaged in such a rapid turnaround, the spotlight will fall on the team's three superstars and their cohesion throughout what's sure to be a historic season in Cleveland. 

While questions abound regarding adjustments Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving will need to make now that they're teamed up with LeBron James, Bleacher Report's Jared Zwerling recently broke down why Cleveland's offense may very well be a juggernaut under head coach David Blatt. 

Here's Zwerling on the Cavaliers creating mismatches in transition:

"

"I'm sure that he's going to want to create numbers offensively [in transition]," the Northwest scout said. "I'm sure they're going to be getting up and going, and they're going to want to play full-court attacking."

The Cavaliers could also be masters of the secondary fast break, which fuels three-pointers in a quick-hitting pick-and-roll. Irving, for one, fed off these last season. And Love, who's become one of the NBA's best-conditioned athletes since coming in heavy from college, figures to be a major threat as a trailing big man, playing off James or Irving in the two-man game.

"

And in the half court: 

"

It's a strong possibility that the Cavaliers' half-court offense will start with multiple pick-and-roll options among James, Irving and Love. The most lethal could be a pick-and-pop with James and Love, in order for Love to further spread the court. As the Southwest scout said, "That's pretty damn scary. It's just like, 'What do you do on defense?'"

"

There will undoubtedly be some bumps in the road along the way, but Cleveland possesses too much firepower to flounder. 

Dallas Mavericks

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X-Factor: Tyson Chandler's rim protection

After ranking No. 3 overall in offensive efficiency last season, the Dallas Mavericks may actually take a step forward on that end of the floor during the 2014-15 campaign. 

Defensively, the aim is to improve as well, and the Mavericks attempted to accelerate their unit's development by bringing a familiar face aboard. 

Tyson Chandler will anchor Dallas' revamped defense once again and should represent an immediate upgrade over former starter Samuel Dalembert. 

Last season, Chandler surrendered 0.84 points per possession on post-ups and 0.88 to roll men in the pick-and-roll, numbers that were superior to Dalembert's marks of 0.91 and 0.98, respectively, according to Synergy Sports (subscription required). 

After Dallas ranked 20th and 26th when defending those two play types while allowing opponents to shoot 55 percent at the rim (tied for No. 29 overall), Chandler's presence should help jolt head coach Rick Carlisle's defense to life.  

Denver Nuggets

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X-Factor: Offensive fluidity 

The Denver Nuggets have plenty of work to do on both ends of the floor in order to qualify for postseason re-entry, and a clean bill of health will help their odds considerably. 

However, after George Karl's Nuggets ranked No. 5 in offensive efficiency during a prosperous 2012-13 campaign, Brian Shaw's club took a sizable step back. Specifically, the Nuggets ranked 11 spots lower in terms of efficiency last season, mustering 106 points per 100 possessions. 

What's more concerning, however, is how turnover-prone the Nuggets proved to be while playing at the league's third-fastest pace. Not only did Denver rank second-to-last in terms of passes per game, according to SportVU tracking data, but it committed the league's third-most turnovers (1,305). 

According to TeamRankings.com, those numbers contributed to an assist-to-turnover ratio that ranked No. 22 among all teams. 

Given how deep Denver is at all five positions, an opportunity exists for the Nuggets to rank among the league's most improved clubs this season if they can establish some much-needed chemistry. 

Detroit Pistons

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X-Factor: Andre Drummond's success under Stan Van Gundy

Stan Van Gundy helped mold Dwight Howard into the NBA's most dominant center during his time with the Orlando Magic. 

And now that he's back on the bench, Van Gundy has an opportunity to do the same with Andre Drummond. 

A budding superstar who just turned 21 years old, Drummond is already a matchup nightmare who averaged 13.5 points and 13.2 rebounds last season for a floundering Detroit Pistons team. 

With Van Gundy's offseason binge on shooters hinting at a return to his beloved four-out, one-in scheme, Drummond should be fed the rock at a much higher clip than last season (usage rate of 16.7). 

What's more encouraging is Drummond sounds ready to assume a heavier burden on the blocks, according to Slam's Abe Schwadron:

"

This summer, I've been working on my back-to-the-basket game, I've gotten a lot more comfortable with it, both my right and my left hand. Stan [Van Gundy] is going to put the ball in my hands this upcoming season. So I have to really work hard on being comfortable with it, and I feel like I've done a good job of that this year, staying well-conditioned and becoming a lot more comfortable with the ball in my hands, making the right decisions.

"

After post-ups and pick-and-rolls accounted for a combined 20.1 percent of his usage last season, expect Drummond to be fed at a much more appropriate clip this season as his skill set expands. 

Golden State Warriors

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X-Factor: Steve Kerr's offensive influence 

While the Golden State Warriors thrived defensively last season, Mark Jackson's offense couldn't live up to the massive expectations bestowed upon it. 

Yes, the Warriors ranked among the league's top half (No. 12 overall) in terms of offensive efficiency, but this is a unit that possesses the pieces necessary to be a top-five offense. With Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, David Lee, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, the Warriors' offensive ceiling is seemingly limitless. 

Which is where new head coach Steve Kerr comes into play. 

After Jackson failed to maximize the potential of several All-Star-caliber pieces, Kerr's ready to implement a more free-flowing offense, as he explained to the San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami

"

It will be influenced by the Triangle but it will not look like the Bulls of the '90s, I can tell you that.

The game has changed and I think my philosophy would reflect that. For instance, I would be crazy to do away with screen and roll with Steph—he's devastating in it. We'll do plenty of that.

But we have the opportunity to make some strides offensively and I think that will be reflected in my influences—which have been Popovich and Phil and Lenny Wilkens...

They've all been coaches who emphasized ball movement, spacing and flow and having a a system to rely on and that's what I'm looking to give.

"

Should Kerr's influence result in an efficiency jump, the Warriors could give the Los Angeles Clippers a run for the Pacific Division title.  

Houston Rockets

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X-Factor: Trevor Ariza's production after a contract year

Could the Houston Rockets really make the same mistake twice? 

After signing Trevor Ariza to a three-year, $18 million deal in the summer of 2009, the Rockets thought they had solved some of their problems on the wing. 

Except Ariza floundered, shooting 39.4 percent from the field and 33.4 percent from three during his first season in H-Town. 

Realizing their mistake, the Rockets quickly cut their losses, dealing Ariza in a four-team trade the following summer with the New Orleans Hornets, Indiana Pacers and New Jersey Nets. 

Then, the free-agency frenzy of 2014 shook things up. 

General manager Daryl Morey couldn't help himself after he struck out on Chris Bosh and let Chandler Parsons walk, which left him with considerable cash to throw at Ariza. 

This time around, the swingman nabbed a four-year, $32 million deal from the Rockets after shooting a career-high 40.7 percent from three while recording 3.7 defensive win shares with the Washington Wizards last season. 

Thrust back into the spotlight in Houston, the Rockets desperately need Ariza to maintain his 2013-14 form and operate as a lockdown defender and supplemental scorer who knocks down corner threes at a reliable clip.  

Indiana Pacers

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X-Factor: Roy Hibbert's offense

By now, you're likely familiar with the plight of Roy Hibbert. 

But in case you forgot just how ugly things got last season, here's a quick recap. 

After earning a second career All-Star nod, Hibbert's production tapered off significantly, and the big man averaged 8.9 points on 39 percent shooting. 

As a result, Hibbert's scoring and rebounding averages reverted to 2009-10 levels, and his field-goal percentage of 43.9 represented a new career low. 

The postseason represented an entirely new chapter of individual disappointment, but we won't regale you with the tales of Hibbert's most disastrous blunders. 

Now with Paul George sidelined for the season and Lance Stephenson in Charlotte, Hibbert will need to assume a heftier offensive burden and embrace his quest for redemption. 

Ranked 87th in point-per-play production (0.84) on post-ups last season, per Synergy Sports (subscription required), Hibbert needs a return to 2011-12 form in order to prevent the Indiana Pacers from collapsing. 

Los Angeles Clippers

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X-Factor: Rim Protection

The Los Angeles Clippers have been praised throughout the summer for adding to their offensive arsenal. 

And one signing that seemed to generally garner acclaim was that of Spencer Hawes, who was inked to a four-year, $23 million deal. 

Yes, Hawes provides yet another dimension to an offense that already ranked as the league's best. He can stretch the floor like few big men can, and that was particularly evident during stints with the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers last season. 

But Hawes can't protect the rim.  

While the Clippers have a rock-solid rotation of bigs on paper, the depth behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan is legitimately concerning from a defensive standpoint. 

For a team that ranked 29th in opponents' offensive rebounds and 25th in opponents' total rebounds, the Clippers really didn't do much to ease concerns that they'll be pushed around in the paint. 

Hawes' slow feet have resulted in some notoriously lousy defense, which manifested itself in the form of a No. 204 overall ranking when it came to points per possession allowed on post-ups during his time with the Cavaliers, per Synergy Sports (subscription required). 

Not only that, but opponents converted the fourth-most shots at the rim against Hawes last season, per SportVU player tracking data. 

Ekpe Udoh's ability to spell both Griffin and Jordan will help, but it remains to be seen how much action he'll see on a night-to-night basis.

Los Angeles Lakers

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X-Factor: The reinvention of Kobe Bryant 

"No, I don't jump as high as I used to," Kobe Bryant said during a recent visit to China (via Dan Feldman of ProBasketballTalk) "That's OK. I'm not as fast as I used to be. That's OK, too. I'll figure out another way to do it."

And we don't doubt Bryant will find ways to remain effective during his twilight years. 

Although Bryant's undoubtedly lost a step or two after going through two extended rehab stints, his ability to burn opponents with unparalleled footwork and a quick release off the dribble should allow him to thrive in head coach Byron Scott's offense. 

Whether he's burning opponents with crafty up-and-under maneuvers or fall-away jumpers, Bryant's return (even if his game does assume a different form) will pump some excitement back into Staples Center when the purple and gold take the floor.

Memphis Grizzlies

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X-Factor: Three-point shooting

The Memphis Grizzlies' story remains the same. 

Elite defense and an offense that operates at a snail's pace makes Memphis one of the Western Conference's most unconventional teams, but the Grizzlies have found a way to make the system work. 

Memphis has won 50-plus games each of the past two seasons, but playing at the league's slowest pace (89.9 possessions per 48 minutes last season) has given head coach Dave Joerger's offense a very slim margin for error. 

In order to maximize those possessions, the Grizzlies could stand to attack more from the outside. Evidently, the numbers seem to agree. 

Last season, Memphis ranked dead last in threes attempted and made, ranking No. 19 overall in conversion rate. 

However, the Grizzlies addressed their biggest need this summer by signing Vince Carter to fill the void left by Mike Miller. A 39.4 percent shooter from three last season, Carter joins Courtney Lee and Quincy Pondexter as Memphis' perimeter marksmen. 

If that group can provide consistent reinforcements from behind the arc, Memphis could make some serious noise in a crowded Western Conference.

Miami Heat

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X-Factor: Chris Bosh's implementation as an offensive centerpiece

For the past four seasons, Chris Bosh admirably stepped aside and assumed a complementary role in the name of championship aspirations. 

But with LeBron James out of the picture, it's Bosh's time to shine as the fulcrum of Miami's offense. 

Bleacher Report's Jared Dubin recently explored what Bosh's new role could look like when head coach Erik Spoelstra rolls out his recalibrated system: 

"

It's extremely unlikely that such a large portion of Bosh's shots this coming season will be a result of spot-up opportunities as they were the last few years. He'll have to start posting up more often again, creating shots for himself instead of being just a finisher. He'll likely have more isolations sent his way.

It's entirely possible a pick-and-roll for Wade and Bosh becomes the go-to play for Miami on any trip down the floor, where over the last few years it was usually an outlet option after anything involving James.

"

Take a trip down memory lane, and you'll remember Bosh is fully capable of averaging 20 and 10. However, he turned 30 years old last season, and his game has taken on a form that's more conducive to professional longevity. 

He admitted as much back in May. 

"I don't bang with anybody anymore," Bosh said, according to NBA.com's John Schuhmann. "It's a tired thing for me. It's not my strength and I understand that. So, be smart and play within the team offense, but be aggressive at the same time."

Tracking Bosh's readjustment to life as a primary scorer should be one of the most compelling storylines as the regular season gets underway. 

Milwaukee Bucks

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X-Factor: Giannis Antetokounmpo's growth in year two 

This is both a literal and figurative take. 

Not only does Giannis Antetokounmpo have a chance to blossom into a combo guard the likes of which we've never seen, but in an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, general manager John Hammond claimed Antetokounmpo actually grew two inches over the summer.

Possessing a 6'11'' frame and a rapidly expanding skill set, there's a reason Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal ranked the Greek Freak as the league's third-most unique player.

Here's the thing, though: We've been marveling at Antetokounmpo's physical attributes so much that it's been easy to gloss over how pedestrian his rookie numbers (6.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 41.4 percent shooting) were. 

That said, there's still plenty of room for development. And in this case, trying to project a ceiling doesn't feel appropriate. 

Still figuring out how to put his raw gifts to use in the NBA, smidgens of progression as a jump-shooter and more aggressive attacker off the dribble could help improve Milwaukee's offense as it grows organically under new head coach Jason Kidd.  

Minnesota Timberwolves

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X-Factor: How quickly the young core develops 

After dealing Kevin Love, the Minnesota Timberwolves aren't in a position to shake up the NBA's postseason landscape. 

That said, Minnesota has plenty to play for this season.

Namely, head coach and president of basketball operations Flip Saunders will be looking to develop an immensely talented group of youngsters that includes Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, Zach LaVine and Gorgui Dieng, among others. 

With a foundation in place and the Timberwolves evolving at a rapid pace following Love's departure, there's room for Wiggins and Bennett to establish themselves as impactful contributors right away. 

Developing chemistry with veterans like Nikola Pekovic, Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin will naturally take time, but the pieces have been acquired to make the Timberwolves a fascinating developmental watch as the franchise makes a drastic turnaround. 

New Orleans Pelicans

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X-Factor: Perimeter Defense

All of the pieces are in place for the New Orleans Pelicans to terrorize opponents with an arsenal of diverse offensive weapons. Where they could find some trouble is stopping opponents from returning the favor. 

Anthony Davis and Omer Asik figure to establish themselves as a wrecking crew around the rim, but questions abound when it comes to head coach Monty Williams' smaller defenders. 

Jrue Holiday is a defensive stud, and his return to form will aid a club that ranked No. 27 overall in defensive efficiency last season. 

But Holiday can't carry the load himself. 

Adequate support needs to be provided by Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans, particularly after New Orleans allowed a league-worst 1.24 points per possession in transition last season, according to Synergy Sports (subscription required). 

There's also the matter of New Orleans' spotty defense against spot-ups and players coming off screens, where the Pelicans ranked 25th and 27th, respectively, in terms of points per possession allowed, according to Synergy. 

In order for the Pelicans to capitalize on their massive potential, it will be incumbent upon Holiday, Evans and Gordon to hunker down, silence opposing ball-handlers and equal the defensive commitments Davis and Asik bring to the table. 

New York Knicks

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X-Factor: Jose Calderon's fit in the triangle

Speculation regarding new head coach Derek Fisher's implementation of the triangle offense in New York has centered around Carmelo Anthony's role as a primary scorer. But little has been made of Jose Calderon's fit, which appears to be rather natural. 

Take it from Bleacher Report's Dylan Murphy, who broke down the traits that will make Calderon's adjustment to the triangle a seamless one: 

"

Calderon's 44.9 three-point shooting percentage ranked near the top of the league all season last year, and he shot better than 50 percent from the corners, per NBA.com, which was among the league leaders as well.

For most point guards, corner three-point shooting is often de-emphasized in a typical offense. The 1 typically resides at the top of the key with the ball, swinging it to shooters in the corner or receiving it back for wing/top-of-the-key threes. His domain is more in the middle of the floor. 

"

Murphy's detailed breakdown notes that the point guard's role as a shooter is emphasized in the triangle, which is especially good news for a 50-40-90 club member like Calderon. 

A 41.1 percent shooter from beyond the arc for his career, Calderon's catch-and-shoot proficiency and distributive competency should be put to good use this season. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

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X-Factor: Ball movement

The Oklahoma City Thunder's offense remains one of the league's most lethal units thanks to the presence of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka

But in order to maximize its championship-caliber potential, Oklahoma City needs to embrace a more free-flowing system that emphasizes side-to-side ball movement. 

Head coach Scott Brooks admitted as much during exit interviews in May, according to Daily Thunder's Royce Young

"

Offensively, we have moved the ball. I think three years ago, we were last in assists. I think this year I think we were in the mid 13 or 14. I think we can get into the top 10. That's something that we want to be better at, we want to be a better passing team. We have improved in that area. Sometimes we want it now, like we all do, but it takes time to get better every day. 

"

Here's another illuminating number: According to the league's SportVU player tracking data, Oklahoma City averaged just 268.3 passes per game, which ranked No. 26 overall. Only the Sacramento Kings, Detroit Pistons, Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors produced lower numbers. 

For some context, the Charlotte Bobcats led the league with 334.3 passes per game while the San Antonio Spurs recorded 330.4 a night. 

Should the rock stick less, particularly in crunch time, Oklahoma City could be home to the league's most potent offense. 

Orlando Magic

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X-Factor: Channing Frye's floor-stretching capabilities

The Orlando Magic aren't quite ready to compete for a playoff spot, but the 2014-15 season should mark the start of the franchise's offensive turnaround. 

Ranked No. 29 in offensive efficiency a year ago, Jacque Vaughn's club enters a crucial development campaign with a slightly retooled roster of weapons. 

Chief among them is stretch 4 Channing Frye, who inked a four-year, $32 million deal with Orlando this summer. 

A 37 percent shooter from beyond the arc last season, Frye can help accelerate Orlando's growth by stretching the floor for an offense that lacked adequate spacing last season (No. 21 in three-point percentage). 

No, Frye won't solve Orlando's outside woes himself, but his shooting is a start. After the Magic ranked No. 22 in spot-up scoring last season, per Synergy Sports (subscription required), Orlando will take any perimeter reinforcements it can get. 

With Nikola Vucevic effectively manning the interior and a young crop of wings slowly gaining its footing, Frye's reliable stroke from deep can help Orlando climb up the efficiency ranks. 

Philadelphia 76ers

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X-Factor: Michael Carter-Williams' jump shot

The Philadelphia 76ers ran last year. A lot. And the results weren't pretty. 

While the fast pace (No. 1 overall) made the Sixers' style of play just slightly more palatable, it produced some numbers that were hideous enough to burn your eyes. 

For instance, the Sixers' offensive rating clocked in at 99.4, the worst mark among all 30 teams. 

And while Michael Carter-Williams ran away with Rookie of the Year honors, it was his basic box score statistics (16.7 points, 6.3 assists, 6.2 rebounds)aided by the team's run-and-gun tempo—that earned him recognition. 

But the way in which Carter-Williams accrued those numbers wasn't worthy of praise. 

As a rookie, Carter-Williams shot 40.5 percent from the floor, including 26.4 percent from three, and, along with Kemba Walker, was one of two players to attempt at least 15 shots per game and shoot worse than 41 percent from the field. 

Consider Carter-Williams shot below 40 percent from every range outside of three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, an improved touch will be necessary to lift Philadelphia out of the efficiency cellar. 

Phoenix Suns

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X-Factor: Defending the paint

In order for the Phoenix Suns to avoid taking a step back after a breakout campaign, they'll need to protect the rim at a much more effective rate. 

Last season, the Suns surrendered 12.6 makes per game at the rim, according to SportVU player tracking data, which was the NBA's second-worst mark behind the Los Angeles Lakers. 

While the Suns frontcourt is offensively proficient, it's defensively proficient when it comes to athleticism in the restricted area. 

Run a quick check around the Western Conference, and it's clear Miles Plumlee is an outlier at center when intimidating defensive presences like Tiago Splitter, DeAndre Jordan, Andrew Bogut, Robin Lopez and Tyson Chandler litter the rosters of contenders. 

Perhaps a healthy Alex Len will reinforce Phoenix's lackluster depth at center, but it's hard to imagine the Suns making a run with their current platoon. 

Portland Trail Blazers

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X-Factor: Shot selection

The Portland Trail Blazers are a fascinating case study in shot selection and efficiency. 

Last season, Portland attempted more shots between 16 and 24 feet than it did in the restricted area, per NBA.com, but still managed to rank as league's second-most efficient offense. 

Of course, when your offense revolves around a mid-range savant like LaMarcus Aldridge, shots above the free-throw line and below the arc are going to be more commonplace. That's where Aldridge makes his hay, and that's not going to change. 

Portland maintained such a high degree of efficiency by bombing away from three (No. 3 in attempts) at a 37.2 percent clip, aided by the hot shooting of Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, among others. 

But here's the question: If Portland cuts out a small percentage of those mid-range attempts and redistributes them above the arc and in the restricted area, could it actually take a step forward in the efficiency department? 

It's a terrifying proposition for opposing defenses and a trend that should be monitored moving forward. 

Sacramento Kings

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X-Factor: Rudy Gay's usage

Rudy Gay's arrival in Sacramento was met with a tepid reaction, and rightfully so. 

But upon suiting up for a wing-starved Kings team, a funny thing happened. 

Gay's player efficiency rating spiked to 19.6 over the course of 55 games with the Kings while his offensive rating peaked at 108 after hovering at a putrid mark of 91 with the Raptors. 

And here's one reason why: The Kings played to Gay's strengths as a combo forward, using him in fewer isolations and more as a pick-and-roll ball-handler while allowing him to bully smaller defenders in the post. 

Specifically, Gay isolated on 24.3 percent of his plays last season with Toronto, and that number dropped to 17.2 percent with the Kings, per Synergy Sports (subscription required). As for pick-and-roll ball-handling, Gay did so at a 21.4 percent clip with Sacramento, up more than two percent from his time with the Raptors. 

And the list goes on. 

But with Sacramento still in desperate need of more reliable perimeter weapons, head coach Mike Malone will need to use Gay in a similar fashion and allow sets to flow through him in order to ensure further offensive success. 

San Antonio Spurs

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X-Factor: Kawhi Leonard's transition to superstardom 

Throughout the 2014 playoffs, we watched Kawhi Leonard blossom into a bona fide star, one who proved capable of dominating on both ends of the floor. 

He wasn't too shabby during the regular season, either, especially on offense. While he averaged a seemingly pedestrian 12.8 points, Leonard was efficient from all areas of the floor. 

Not only did he shoot a career-high 37.9 percent from three, but Leonard knocked down 45.4 percent of his shots between 16 and 24 feet (above the league average) while hitting on 55.56 percent (also above the league average) of his looks in the paint that were outside of the restricted area, per NBA.com

As a result, Leonard's player efficiency rating ranked fifth among all small forwards behind Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. 

However, Leonard still has so much room to grow. Last season, Leonard's usage rate clocked in at 18.3, below rotational cogs Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills, among others. 

Now a Finals MVP and an established defensive ace, it's time for Leonard to assume a more significant share of the Spurs' offensive load and never look back. 

Toronto Raptors

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X-Factor: Jonas Valanciunas

I've been harping on this throughout the summer, but the Toronto Raptors really need to find more ways to feed Jonas Valanciunas in the post. 

After Toronto leaned upon the perimeter trio of DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Terrence Ross to assume a majority of the offensive burden, Valanciunas' role represented that of a complementary scorer. 

Not viewed as an offensive staple (yet, anyway), Valanciunas' usage rate clocked in at No. 10 overall among Raptors players. 

As a result, Valanciunas attempted just 8.3 shots per game, the lowest among any center who qualified for the league's minutes-per-game leaderboard, according to Basketball-Reference.com

And remember, this is a team that ranked 23rd in terms of field-goal percentage inside the arc. 

Despite playing almost exclusively to the strengths of its wing players, Toronto still ranked No. 10 overall in offensive efficiency. 

With a little more help from their evolving low-post threat, the Raptors should be able to maintain their hold on the Atlantic Division's top spot. 

Utah Jazz

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X-Factor: Gordon Hayward's quest to bounce back 

The Utah Jazz weren't left with a choice when it came to re-signing Gordon Hayward. And now that he's back in the fold, it's time for Hayward to prove he was worthy of a $63 million contract and the expectations that accompany it. 

To start, Hayward will need to put a largely disappointing 2013-14 season in the rearview mirror. 

The obvious focus will be on Hayward's quest to regain some efficiency in the scoring column. 

Last year, Hayward shot 29.8 percent in the paint (non-restricted area) and hit on a weak 31.6 percent of his threes above the break. 

With shots from those two spots accounting for 32.9 percent of his output last season, it's imperative Hayward starts scorching the nets in a way that justifies his status as Utah's offensive centerpiece. 

Washington Wizards

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X-Factor: Paul Pierce's defensive presence

Paul Pierce is sure to represent an offensive upgrade over former Washington Wizards swingman Trevor Ariza, but his defensive chops can be rightly questioned at age 36. 

During his lone season with the Brooklyn Nets, Pierce's defensive rating crept up to 106, which tied for the second-worst mark of his career. 

Additionally, Pierce's defensive win share total clocked in at 2.3, the lowest mark since his rookie season. 

However, there's hope that Pierce can adequately fill the void left by Ariza, as Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb points out: 

"

He's still a strong, smart defender, and he remains versatile—capable of making plays, guarding a range of forwards and spacing the floor with his three-point shot. On paper, Pierce will do many of the things that Ariza did a season ago.

The Wizards will lose a little something defensively on the perimeter, but they'll also have more offensive variety thanks to Pierce's court vision and ability to facilitate. It's something of a tradeoff, but it shouldn't become a liability for Washington. This will still be a strong defensive team.

"

To Babb's point, Pierce was particularly proficient when guarding slower forwards last season when slotted in at the 4, ranking No. 21 overall when guarding roll men, per Synergy Sports (subscription required). 

He's not the certifiable ball-stopper Ariza's purported to be, but Pierce shouldn't be anything close to a defensive liability, either. 

🚨 Mitchell Headed to 1st Conference Finals

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