How the Atlanta Falcons Matchup Against the Current NFC Playoff Contenders

We're two weeks away from the start of the NFL's "second season", the place where these 2012 Falcons can finally exorcise their demons from the last two postseasons.  A couple of weeks ago, we gave you a look at the Best and Worst Case Playoff Scenarios for Atlanta.  The NFC playoff picture has changed quite a bit since then, and so has the Falcons' playoff outlook. 

This slideshow will look at each of the current NFC playoff contenders and examine reasons why they could be a good matchup for Atlanta, while also offering arguments as to why every team could beat the Falcons. 

It should be noted that although teams like the Rams and Saints are still mathematically alive, we're only considering NFC teams with records of .500 or better for this analysis (sorry "Who-Dat Nation").  This analysis also presumes that the Falcons will win one of their last two games and clinch the NFC's top seed.

We will also look at how each team could qualify for the playoffs, and where they could eventually play the Falcons in January.  Let's get started.  #RiseUp

Chicago Bears, 8-6

How They Get Into the Playoffs: Wild Card

Who They Have Left: Week 16 at Arizona, Week 17 at Detroit

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Divisional Round.  If the Bears qualify for the playoffs, they would be either the fifth or sixth-seeded team in the Wild Card Round, which means that if they won, they would probably (unless they finished fifth and the sixth-seeded team pulled an upset) face the NFC's top seed (Atlanta) in the second round of the playoffs.

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:  The Bears have struggled against elite competition all year.  A win in the Wild Card round would still leave them with a 4-6 record this year against teams that are .500 or better. 

Moreover, the mistake-prone Jay Cutler is the kind of pocket passer that Mike Nolan and the Falcons' defense have been able to rattle in the Georgia Dome this season.  The Falcons also would be motivated to get their revenge against a Bears squad that embarrassed them in the 2011 season opener.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons:  Chicago has the kind of physical defense that could disrupt the Falcons' passing game both up front and in the defensive secondary. 

Charles Tillman is one of the few corners in the league who may be able to hold his own against Julio Jones, and Sam Baker had one of the worst games of his career last year against Julius Peppers.  This is also a much more talented Bears' offense than the one that lit up the Falcons in 2011.

Dallas Cowboys, 8-6

How They Get Into the Playoffs: NFC East Champ or Wild Card

Who They Have Left:  Week 16 vs. New Orleans, Week 17 at Washington

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Divisional Round.  Cowboys are likely to be seeded fourth through sixth if they qualify for the playoffs.

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:   The Falcons already proved that they can beat Dallas in a playoff-type situation when they held on 19-13 to beat a desperate Cowboys team on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.  Julio Jones and Roddy White were able to win their one-on-one battles with Dallas' corners, and Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers were able to get tough yards on the ground when Atlanta needed them most. 

The Falcons' defense also did a stellar job against Dallas in the red zone, holding the Cowboys to two field goals after a couple of early Dallas drives.  Also, given Tony Romo's penchant for turnovers, you have to figure that it would be hard for him to get through a second game against this defense without one.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons:  The Cowboys are very similar to the Giants and Packers of 2010 and 2011.  They seem to be getting hot at the right time of the year.  If they win out and make the playoffs, then they would have won seven of their last eight regular-season games. 

In addition, like the 2010 Packers, Dallas lost a tight game in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons during the regular season.  A game that they, like those 2010 Packers, feel they should have won.  Dallas was able to get good pressure up the middle against Atlanta, and the Falcons averted disaster by recovering a Matt Ryan fumble after he was nailed by DeMarcus Ware. 

If Dallas recovered that fumble, the Week 9 game may have been a lot different.

Washington Redskins, 8-6

How They Get Into the Playoffs:  NFC East Champ or Wild Card

Who They Have Left: Week 16 at Philadelphia, Week 17 vs. Dallas

Where The Falcons Could Face Them:  If the Redskins win the NFC East and finish as the NFC's fourth seed, they could be Atlanta's opponent in the NFC Divisional Round if both of the higher NFC seeds win their Wild Card games.

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:   A game against Washington would mean hosting a rookie quarterback in a playoff game.  The Falcons handled RGIII fairly well in their October meeting before knocking him out of the game with a concussion in Atlanta's 24-17 win. 

In addition, Atlanta was able to gain chunks of yardage against a Redskins secondary that struggled to keep up with Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons:  If the Redskins don't lose another game until their Divisional Round meeting with the Falcons, then they will have won eight straight games following a 3-6 start.  There is a lot to be said for carrying momentum into the playoffs. 

Furthermore, while Atlanta's defense has confused proven quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Eli Manning in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons' defense struggled in both meetings against Cam Newton. 

The Redskins utilize RGIII a lot like the Panthers use Cam Newton when they run the spread option.  If Redskins offense finds a way to exploit Mike Nolan's defense like Carolina did, the Falcons could be in for another disappointment.

Minnesota Vikings, 8-6

How They Get Into the Playoffs: Wild Card

Who They Have Left: Week 16 at Houston, Week 17 vs. Green Bay

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Divisional Round, Vikings would be seeded fifth or sixth if they find a way into the playoffs after two tough matchups in Weeks 16 and 17.

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:  Like every game, it starts with the matchup at quarterback.  Matt Ryan versus Christian Ponder would be a huge advantage for Atlanta.  Minnesota is dead last in the league in passing yards per game, and their best receiver (Percy Harvin) is on IR. 

The Falcons' receivers also figure to provide a stiff challenge to a Minnesota defense that is 23rd in the league against the pass.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons: Adrian Peterson.  If Minnesota could find a way to force a couple of turnovers and get an early lead, Peterson has proven that he can do the rest by himself.  The Vikings have surprised the 49ers and the Bears this season.  They could do the same to the Falcons if Atlanta does not come to play.

New York Giants, 8-6

How They Get Into the Playoffs: NFC East Champ or Wild Card

Who They Have Left: Week 16 at Baltimore, Week 17 vs. Philadelphia

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Divisional Round, Giants will likely be seeded fourth through sixth

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:  The Falcons played their best game of the season against the Giants in Week 15.  The Falcons know what the Giants are capable of in January, so you wouldn't have to worry about them taking the defending champions lightly. 

The Giants secondary really struggled with Julio Jones, and offensively Eli Manning could not figure out Mike Nolan's defense.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons:  The Giants are the defending champions for a reason.  They know how to respond to adversity.  The Week 15 loss to the Falcons did not break their confidence.  This team would come into the Georgia Dome expecting to win in the playoffs. 

Atlanta would have a much tougher time fooling Eli Manning a second time around, and the vaunted New York defensive line would love another shot at redeeming their poor Week 15 performance.

Seattle Seahawks, 9-5

How They Get Into the Playoffs: NFC West Champ or Wild Card

Who They Have Left: Week 16 vs. San Francisco, Week 17 vs. St. Louis

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Divisional Round if Seahawks are a Wild Card, NFC Title Game if Seahawks win the division and finish as the 2nd or 3rd seed in the conference

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:  Just like the potential Washington-Atlanta matchup, a Seattle-Atlanta playoff contest would mean the Falcons are hosting a rookie quarterback. 

Moreover, other than having an elite runner in Marshawn Lynch, Seattle doesn't have the kind of offensive weapons (speedy slot receiver/tight end) that typically give the Atlanta defense fits (see Lance Moore/Jimmy Graham of New Orleans, Greg Olsen of Carolina). 

In addition, while Seattle is 6-0 at Century Link Field this year (the Bermuda Triangle for opposing teams, ask the Packers and Patriots), they are only 3-5 on the road.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons:  Seattle has a physical defense that is built in the mold of teams like the 49ers, Bears, and Giants.  The Seahawks are third in the league against the pass because they can rush up front, and they have big, physical corners who won't back down from Roddy White and Julio Jones. 

Russell Wilson may be a rookie, but he certainly hasn't played like one.  His ability to move the pocket around could create problems for Atlanta's pass rush.

Green Bay Packers, 10-4

How They Get Into the Playoffs: NFC North Champ

Who They Have Left: Week 16 vs. Tennessee, Week 17 at Minnesota

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Championship game, the Packers are most likely going to be the 2nd or 3rd seed in the NFC

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:  Atlanta knows all too well what this team, like the Giants, is capable of in January.  If you consider that in context with Roddy White's comments earlier this week about Atlanta's growth and maturity in their approach to games against elite opponents, I would expect the Packers to get Atlanta's complete and undivided attention. 

Green Bay has struggled running the ball more than Atlanta has, and the Falcons are a lot better defensively than they were when they faced Green Bay in 2010 and 2011.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons:  The Packers are 10-4, but they could very easily be 12-2 like the Falcons.  One of their losses was the infamous "simultaneous possession" game in Seattle, and they also blew a big lead against an emotional Colts team that was playing for its coach in Week 5. 

Aaron Rodgers is as dangerous as ever, and Randall Cobb has added yet another explosive element to this offense.  The Packers also expect to get a healthy Charles Woodson back for the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers, 10-3-1

How They Get Into the Playoffs:  NFC West Champ or Wild Card

Who They Have Left: Week 16 at Seattle, Week 17 vs. Arizona

Where The Falcons Could Face Them: NFC Title Game if the 49ers hang on to their lead in the NFC West because they would be either the 2nd or 3rd seed behind Atlanta.  If the Niners don't win the division, they'd figure to be a formidable opponent in the NFC Divisional Round as a Wild Card team.

Why They are a Good Matchup for Atlanta:  Colin Kaepernick would be another inexperienced quarterback coming on the road for a playoff game, but he has already won in some tough environments like New Orleans and Foxboro. 

The best advantage in this matchup for Atlanta would be the motivation that the Falcons would have from being home underdogs as the NFC's top seed. The national media has a love affair with the 49ers (not for bad reasons), and you can bet that they would be favored in a playoff matchup in the Georgia Dome against the Falcons. 

Atlanta has had a strong response in all of their "statement" games this year (at Philadelphia, vs. New Orleans, and vs. NYG), and Smitty would definitely be in the team's ears all week behind closed doors about earning respect and defending home turf against a tough 49ers team.

Why They Could Beat the Falcons: The 49ers have four absolute freaks on defense in Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman.  Furthermore, with Colin Kaepernick under center, San Francisco is able to run the kind of read option plays that Carolina used to create big plays against the Falcons' defense. 

Also, don't forget about Randy Moss, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore.

Who's the Best Matchup?

Which team is the best matchup for Atlanta?  Let me know @AlBruce7.