Ranking the New York Yankees in Late-Season Clutchness: 1-25

September in a pennant race is traditionally a time when the best players on a team step up with their best performances.

So when considering how to rank the players most likely to be on a postseason roster, should the New York Yankees hang on and hold off the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays for the American League East crown or, at the very least, qualify for one of the two wild-card spots for the winner-take-all, single-game playoff opener, I tried to consider what a player has done in September and compare it to those same statistical categories over the course of their career.

There are many disputing theories about how to quantify a player’s so-called “clutchness.” In 2008, Eric Seidman of FanGraphs.com put forth the notion that a player’s clutch performance doesn’t so much relate to how a player performs with the game on the line, but rather how well he performs in those situations in comparison to his performance in all other situations.

Andrew Dolphin, who does runs the Dolphin Ratings at dolphinsim.com, did this piece in 2003 in which a statistical study he conducted found that clutch hitting does exist and it is important but that random effects make it difficult to determine how clutch a player is with a “high degree of accuracy.”

David Appelman wrote on the Baseball Analysts website that it’s important to remember that pitchers can be clutch performers, as well.

With all that in mind, I decided to put together a quick and dirty statistical performance metric of my own, which I am calling the Watson Clutch Performance Rating, or CPR. The acronym is apropos, I believe, because a player who chokes too often when the chips are down may find their career in need of that other type of CPR.

Because I was looking at the metric in the context of the September pennant race, I evaluated Yankee pitchers and hitters by comparing their career performance in September to their career totals in four categories. For hitters, those categories were batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and at-bats per RBI. The pitchers were rated on ERA, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio and opponents’ OPS.

A CPR rating of 1.000 indicates that the player’s September performance was identical to his career numbers. A rating below 1.000 show a player’s career numbers are better than his September performance and ratings above 1.000 show a player raises his performance in the final month of the season over the course of his career.

Here are my findings, in inverse order. It should be noted, also, that there are three omissions from this list of 25 players. Pitchers Cody Eppley and David Phelps have little to no major-league experience in September and pitcher Joba Chamberlain is, in my opinion, a very unlikely candidate to be on the postseason roster.

NOTE: All 2012 statistics through games of Tuesday, Sept. 4.

25. Boone Logan (CPR .729)

Boone Logan has been busy out of the Yankee bullpen. The 28-year-old left-hander is closing in on a new career-high with 63 appearances this season. He made 64 appearances in 2011.

In 46 innings of work, he is 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA, 16 holds and one save in two opportunities. Used mostly to get a select left-handed bat or two out, opponents are hitting .229 against Logan this season and his WHIP is 1.33. He has 57 strikeouts in his 46 innings of work but he has been susceptible to the gopher ball this season, allowing five home runs.

As far as his late-season clutch factor (or lack thereof), well, he’s been pretty awful at the end of the year during his career. He’s got an unsightly 7.91 ERA in 59 career regular-season appearances in September and October with a WHIP also in the stratosphere at 1.97. Logan’s also allowed seven homers in just 33 innings and his strikeouts-to-walks ratio plummets to just 1.61, by far his worst in any month.

24. Jayson Nix (CPR .739)

The good news is that Nix is hitting the ball better than he ever has. The bad news is that is only translating into a .260/.321/.418 triple-slash line in 164 plate appearances in 2012. But those figures represent a dramatic leap from his career marks of .215/.286/.376.

In September, however, he has been much, much worse. How much worse? Try .178/.258/.281 worse in 164 plate appearances. But he makes up for it by striking out a lot in September, 48 times to be exact.

Fortunately for the Yankees, he’s been mostly a spare part this season. Unfortunately for the Yankees, he’s had to get a lot more at-bats than they anticipated because of injuries. Given the relative age of the team, it’s not inconceivable that Nix would have to make some important plate appearances this month. Based on these numbers, it’s also not inconceivable that those appearances would be less than stellar.

23. Clay Rapada (CPR .888)

Rapada, another lefty reliever, is having a career year. He’s almost doubled his previous career high in appearances with 62 and is 3-0 with five holds in 34.1 innings. His ERA and WHIP are respectable at 2.68 and 1.22 and hitters (mostly left-handers) are mustering just a .208 average while he has struck out 32 batters and walked 17.

But in 40 career September appearances covering 23.1 innings, Rapada’s ERA is 4.24 with a WHIP of 1.46. His K-to-BB ratio is also bad, just 1.00 with 18 walks and 18 strikeouts. Opponents only hit .195 against Rapada but have a .378 slugging percentage because of the four home runs he’s served up.

It’s not that Rapada is the worst option in the bullpen (see Logan, Boone) late in the season, but he’s far from being the best one.

22. Nick Swisher (CPR .911)

Swisher is having a solid season for the Yankees with 20 homers and 77 RBI in 121 games. His triple-slash is .255/.359/.467 and he still strikes out too often (120 Ks in 438 at-bats).

But when the calendar rolls over to September, Swisher becomes a different player and I’m not being particularly complimentary. A career .255 hitter, Swisher has hit just .231 in 654 September at-bats with a .335 OBP and .448 slugging percentage. All three of those are his worst figures for any month of the season. For good measure, he’s also grounded into more double plays in September (22) than he has in any other month.

Given the fact he’s just 2-for-15 through the first four games of this month, it appears Swisher, too, has remembered he’s not very good this time of year.

21. Russell Martin (CPR .940)

Martin was never a great hitter. His career average entering this season was .267. But the three-time All-Star opened the year in a slump and he’s never really recovered. In 342 at-bats, he’s hitting .199/.303/.363. The average and OBP are the lowest of his career. He has hit 14 home runs and driven in 37 runs, but Martin’s season is sort of a microcosm for the entire ballclub—he either hits a home run or he makes an out and far, far too often it’s the latter.

Not unusual for a catcher, Martin’s offensive numbers are just about their lowest late in the season. He is a career .244 hitter in 398 at-bats and his nine home runs are by far his fewest in any month. Martin has tended to be a bit more patient at the plate late in the year, though, with a 64-54 walks-to-strikeouts ratio.

The worrisome part is that if he’s been at his worst in Septembers before this season, how bad can we expect this month to be?

20. Ivan Nova (CPR .941)

Currently on the disabled list with a sore shoulder, Nova had a solid first half but was dismal after the All-Star break before he landed on the DL.

In eight post-break starts, Nova is 1-4 with an ERA of 7.28 and a 1.64 WHIP. For the season, he’s 11-7, 4.92, 1.46 in 25 starts.

His September ERA of 4.09 isn’t bad compared to a career mark of 4.32. But his walks climb and his strikeouts plummet to the tune of a K-to-BB ratio in September of just 1.19. Nova has also had a history of early departures in September. In 10 starts he has just four decisions (2-2), something that could likely be attributed to throwing more pitches because of the walks.

19. Curtis Granderson (CPR .951)

Granderson hasn’t enjoyed quite as good a year in 2012 as he did in 2011, when he hit .262 with 41 homers and 119 RBI. This year, he’s sort of morphed into a rich man’s Rob Deer. He’s still hitting home runs (34 in 498 at-bats) and striking out a ton (161). But he’s batting a career-low .233, his OBP is down 39 points to .325 and his slugging percentage has retreated 72 points to .480. To top it off, his stolen bases are down from 25 last season to just eight this year.

His September numbers are an interesting contrast. He hits .249, his OBP is the lowest for any month at .322 but because his 38 September home runs are his most in any month, his slugging percentage is .478.

Overall, his numbers dip a bit in the final month but they’re an improvement over what he traditionally does in August, at any rate.

18. Ichiro Suzuki (CPR .968)

At 38, Ichiro is having his second straight year of declining returns. Last year with the Seattle Mariners was the first time in his career in the U.S. that he hit less than .300 (.272) and this year, he’s at .264 in 534 at-bats. But he’s improved a bit since coming to the Yankees on July 23, hitting .273 in 132 at-bats.

Suzuki is still a .322 lifetime hitter, with .365 and .418 as the rest of his triple-slash numbers. He slips a bit in September historically to .318/.359/.409.

It’s also worth remembering that Ichiro hasn’t been in a pennant race since his second season with Seattle in 2002 and his only postseason appearance came in his “rookie” year of 2001 (it’s hard to consider a guy who played nine seasons in Japan and won seven batting titles as a rookie). 

17. Andy Pettitte (CPR .978)

Pettitte is 3-3 in nine starts with a 3.22 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but has been out since late June with a fractured ankle. Not bad for a guy who didn’t pitch at all in 2011 and turned 40 on June 15.

But provided Pettitte is able to return sometime this month, his September numbers aren’t as good as one might expect for a guy who made his reputation in October.

In the final month of the season, Pettitte has a 4.07 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP with a 2.26 K-to-BB ratio. That compares to his career numbers of 3.87, 1.35 and 2.36. Granted, it’s not a huge drop-off but it is a dip, just the same.

16. Andruw Jones (CPR .980)

Jones, who once cracked 51 home runs in a season while with the Atlanta Braves and hit more than 30 home runs in a season seven different times, appears to be near the end of the line at age 35. This year, his triple-slash is an ugly .201/.284/.421 in 209 at-bats.

Those would be career lows if not for his abysmal 2008 campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers (.158/.256/.249).

In September, Jones is close to his career numbers at .253/.325/.479 with 65 home runs in 1,180 at-bats. But given his role as a spare outfielder, it’s not likely Jones will play a huge role down the stretch.

15. Raul Ibanez (CPR .981)

Ibanez, another 40-year-old, has hit .230/.297/.430 with 15 home runs and 53 RBI in 335 at-bats. His playing time decreased with the arrival of Suzuki, but with the recent injury to Mark Teixeira, Ibanez has spent more time in the outfield.

For his career, Ibanez’s numbers are .278/.340/.469 but he’s been on a steady decline since posting an .899 OPS with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009. As a September performer, Ibanez is at .290/.345/.458 with 44 home runs in 1,312 at-bats.

The batting average and OBP are his highest of any month, but the slugging percentage is his second lowest. 

14. Alex Rodriguez (CPR 1.002)

Rodriguez, just back from a broken hand that cost him six weeks, does in September what he does the rest of the time—not much more, not much less. He’s another player showing some tread wear this season at .275/.355/.444 in 360 at-bats with 15 home runs and 44 RBI. The slugging percentage is the lowest of his career for a full season, down from the .461 he posted in 2011.

For his career, Rodriguez is at .301/.385/.562 with 644 home runs. Once thought a lock to challenge the all-time home run mark of 762, he’s hit just 31 the last two seasons and at 36 isn’t likely to return to his almost automatic 30-homer, 100-RBI self from his prime.

In September, Rodriguez posts .285/.378./542—his lowest batting average of any month. In 1,529 at-bats, he has 106 home runs.

13. Casey McGehee (CPR 1.009)

Since coming from the Pittsburgh Pirates for reliever Chad Qualls at the waiver trade deadline on July 31, McGehee hasn’t done much—.186/.234/.326 with one home run in 43 at-bats. That came after hitting .230/.297/.377 in 265 at-bats with the Pirates.

His career has been in a steady decline since what was thought to be his breakout season in 2010, when he hit .285/.337/.464 with 23 homers and 104 RBI with the Milwaukee Brewers.

For his career, McGahee hits .258/.314/.417 with 61 homers in 1,843 at-bats and in September, he is at .256/.304/.411 with 10 homers in 316 at-bats.

12. Eric Chavez (CPR 1.026)

Chavez has had a solid season in 2012 as he continues to get his career back on track after missing most of 2008-10 with back problems. He’s hitting .288/.345/.492 with 13 home runs in 240 at-bats.

He was the primary fill-in at third base when Alex Rodriguez was out and has also seen time at DH and first base.

In his career, Chavez hits .268/.342/.475 and in September, he’s just a comparable .267/.339/.462 with 38 homers in 828 at-bats. With all the injuries the Yankees have dealt with in 2012, Chavez may prove valuable down the stretch with his steady production from the left side of the plate.

11. Chris Stewart (CPR 1.027)

Stewart, the backup catcher, has had his best year of a career as a spare part, hitting .248/.273/.328 in 125 at-bats with one home run.

That compares to his career marks of .218/.273/.304 in 335 at-bats. Three of his four career homers came in 2011 with the San Francisco Giants.

In September, Stewart has hit .179/.220/.385 in 39 at-bats–admittedly a tiny sample size. But two of his homers have been hit in the final month of the regular-season.

10. Derek Jeter (CPR 1.028)

“Captain Clutch” has enjoyed a career renaissance in 2012, hitting .316/.361/.440 with a league-leading 179 hits at age 38. He’s hit 14 homers, his most since 2009, and also leads the league with 611 plate appearances and 566 at-bats.

Those numbers are comparable to his career marks of .313/.382/.448. In 1,623 September at-bats, Jeter is a bit better at .322/.400/.458 with 41 home runs. But he’s scuffled so far this year in September (2-for-13 in four games).

Since he’s still the fixture at the top of the order, Jeter will need to continue to set the table for the middle of the order if New York is to turn around its second-half slide.

9. Mark Teixeira (CPR 1.065)

Teixeira hasn’t had his best year in 2012. In fact, it’s been his worst at .255/.335/.478 with 23 home runs in 435 at-bats as he’s battled wrist and calf injuries this season. The average and slugging percentage are career lows.

For his career, Teixeira is at .279/.370/.527 and has slugged 337 home runs in 5,648 at-bats. Provided he comes back to perform this month as he has in the past, he’ll solidify the middle of the Yankee order.

In September, Teixeira is a .296/.381/.565 hitter with 58 homers in 915 at-bats. But given his reduced production all season long, it’s anything but a sure thing.

8. Rafael Soriano (CPR 1.067)

Soriano has helped save the Yankees’ season, literally, with 35 saves in 38 chances since taking over the closer role after Mariano Rivera went down to a knee injury early in the season. In 57 appearances covering 54.2 innings, Soriano has a 1.98 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 57 strikeouts.

He’s also a proven September performer. For his career, Soriano’s numbers are a 2.76 ERA, a WHIP of 1.04 and 515 strikeouts in 489 innings.

In September, those figures are 2.61, 1.01 and 90 strikeouts in 72.1 innings.

7. Derek Lowe (CPR 1.078)

Lowe has been awful in 2012. In eight relief appearances since signing with the Yankees after being released by the Cleveland Indians, Lowe has a 5.79 ERA, 2.04 WHIP and eight strikeouts in 9.1 innings.

Prior to that, he made 21 starts for the Indians and was at 5.52, 1.69 and 41 strikeouts and 45 walks in 119 innings.

His career numbers are better at 4.02 and 1.33, with 1,708 strikeouts in 2,644 career innings. In September, Lowe has been very good, with a 3.57 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 403 innings. He also has 286 strikeouts in the final month of the year.

6. Robinson Cano (CPR 1.082)

Cano was an All-Star again in 2012, hitting .303/.365/.547 with 29 home runs in 519 at-bats. The slugging percentage is the best mark of his career and his 29 homers matches a career high first set in 2010.

In his career, Cano has also been a terrific performer at .307/.349/.502. And in September, he gets even better.

In 829 career at-bats in September, Cano is hitting .328/.360/.530 with 30 home runs in 772 at-bats. He’s been one of the rocks in the lineup this year, along with Jeter, and based on his numbers we can expect that to continue to the end of the season.

5. Hiroki Kuroda (CPR 1.090)

Kuroda has been the steadiest starter for the Yankees this year, with a 12-10 record belying solid underlying stats of a 3.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with 135 strikeouts in 183.1 innings. His record could be better had his run support not been among the worst in the American League.

Since coming from Japan in 2008, Kuroda has made 141 starts (with one relief appearance) covering 882.1 innings, with a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP to go with 658 strikeouts.

In September, he’s been better, at 3.14, 1.15 and 98 strikeouts in 120.1 innings over 20 starts. So we can expect Kuroda to continue to be the anchor of the rotation in a year during which CC Sabathia has been on the disabled list twice already.

4. Freddy Garcia (CPR 1.113)

Garcia has shuttled in and out of the rotation this year, making 16 starts and 10 relief appearances covering 99 innings.

His ERA is a robust 5.09 to go with a 1.38 WHIP. At age 35, he’s no longer at the All-Star level he was as a Seattle Mariner a decade ago.

In his career, Garcia has a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 355 appearances (343 starts) and 2,175.1 innings. But Garcia has historically saved his best for last, or at least the last month of the season. He’s made 63 starts in September with a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 396.2 innings to go with 298 strikeouts.

3. CC Sabathia (CPR 1.120)

When he’s healthy, Sabathia is still the best starter on the Yankees. In 23 starts this season, Sabathia has a 3.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 161 strikeouts in 163 innings.

For his career, Sabathia is at 3.51 and 1.23 with 2,178 Ks in 2,527.1 innings and his September numbers get even better.

In 59 career September starts, Sabathia has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 406.1 innings with 364 strikeouts. That’s why he gets the big bucks, I suppose.

2. Phil Hughes (CPR 1.185)

Hughes hasn’t been the most consistent member of the rotation this year with some solid outings mixed with some disastrous ones. It’s added up to a 4.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 161.2 innings over 27 starts. He’s also struck out 136 batters.

In his career, Hughes has a 4.39 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 506 strikeouts in 605.1 innings. But he’s been stellar in September.

Hughes has made 14 starts and 18 relief appearances in September, with a 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go with 84 strikeouts in 101.2 innings. It’s at least something to have some hope in as the Yankees head down the stretch.

1. David Robertson (CPR 1.382)

Robertson has been solid in 2012, but not nearly what he was in his standout 2011 campaign, when he made the All-Star Game as a middle reliever thanks to a 1.08 ERA and 34 holds in 70 appearances.

This season, Robertson has 22 holds in 49 outings, with a 2.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 47.1 innings.

His career numbers are also good: 2.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 331 strikeouts in 249.1 innings. But in September, Robertson’s been off the charts. In 39 appearances and 40.1 innings, Robertson has a 1.56 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 49 strikeouts.

As the guy who is counted on to get the game to Rafael Soriano by working the eighth inning, it’s comforting to know he’s been so solid during the pennant push.