NFL Predictions: San Francisco 49ers, Not the Denver Broncos Advance to SB XLVII

The San Francisco 49ers should not harbor any qualms over not signing Peyton Manning.

Peyton Manning should do the opposite by choosing to sign with the Denver Broncos.

I have two words for you: postseason relevance. Oh, and let’s add three more: Super Bowl contender.

The 49ers have and are just that. The same cannot be said for the Broncos.

At 35 years old (36 in two days), Manning has just signed the final contract of his Hall-of-Fame career.

His sole and well-documented purpose for resuming play in the NFL is another Super Bowl title. He has ostensibly signed with the team, the Denver Broncos, which he believes will give him the best chance at securing the Lombardi Trophy.

Perhaps that will come to fruition a few years down the road, but in 2012, not so much.

Follow along as I document the four reasons why the 49ers, the team Manning could have joined, earns a spot in Super Bowl XLVII while his Broncos will have to sit at home and watch with envious eyes.

Note: I possess not an ounce of ill will towards Mr. Manning. This is not a diatribe against one of the classiest of all-time.

14-4 vs. 9-9

Let’s put this as simply as possible: the 49ers won 14 games and were a play away from reaching the Super Bowl in 2011.

The Broncos miraculously beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Wild Card game in overtime behind the magic of Timmy Tebow (whom I still adore) and a questionable Dick LeBeau defensive scheme (Cover 0?), only to get demolished by the New England Patriots in the next round.

The Niners may have surprised some observers during the regular season, but were unquestionably the real deal in the playoffs.

The Pats exposed the .500 Broncos for the lightning-in-a-bottle team that they really were; inspired by, again, the magic of Timmy Terrific.

Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh have assembled a team poised to achieve double-digit victories for multiple years. They have shored up needs at quarterback, wide receiver, overall defense (returning all 11 starters), special teams and will continue to improve through the draft by adding a right guard, more WRs and drafting for depth. 

The team hasn’t lost much either.

John Elway bringing in Manning secures the Broncos roughly two more wins, but he inherits a team that has far and away more question marks at the surrounding positions.

While ranking No. 1 in rushing in 2011, the option offense behind Tebow facilitated much of that and Willis McGahee turns 31 in October.

Their center J.D. Walton ranked unequivocally as the worst center in all of football according to ProFootballFocus. Allowing 23 QB pressures (second-worst in the league) does not bode well for a fragile Manning that needs to stay upright.  

The defensive line also needs bolstering with the significant loss of Brodrick Bunkley. Other issues include an aging secondary (both starting CBs turn 34), inexperience at the safety position (does Mike Adams represent a considerable upgrade?) and adding a tight end. 

Manning would have inherited a much superior team, a Super Bowl-ready team, had he chosen the 49ers. The same does not nearly apply for the one in Denver.

First-Class Defense, Balanced Offense

Peyton Manning can air it out and generate points on offense as good as any quarterback in league history while compensating for a porous defense.

Despite a great track record of accomplishing this, it is not known whether he is the same caliber QB coming off multiple neck surgeries and playing in a new system for the first time in his career.

He will face massive pressure having to orchestrate scoring drives for a Broncos team that allowed 24.4 points per game (24th overall) in 2011.

Alex Smith, on the other hand, is supported by a defense that allowed a mere 14.3 points per game (second overall). He can rely on his defensive compatriots to come up with stops and eliminate the need to score 25-plus per game.

Moreover, Manning currently lacks weapons on offense to assist him in scoring those points.

Yes, he has elevated the games of players around him in years past, namely Brandon Stokley, Austin Collie, Jacob Tamme and others. There are also plenty of reasons to believe he can do it again with his current team.

However, is Eric Decker the next Stokley? Daniel Fells the next Tamme? Will Demaryius Thomas and his 235-pound frame ever fulfill his potential? And does McGahee have another year in him to contribute with an effective rushing attack?

Until the Broncos transform into Indianapolis-west with the likes of Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark or Jacob Tamme, this team is unproven on offense.

Smith and the 49ers do not face these issues.

Vernon Davis is one the league’s most prolific tight ends. Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are both accomplished dual-threat backs that offer completely different running styles (Gore wears you down, while Hunter breaks away for big yardage down field).

Wide receivers Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree form a dangerous trio who’ll excel underneath, on deep pass plays down the middle and in the red zone to shore up last year’s deficiencies.

Smith will lead a balanced and revived offense that will improve upon its 11th-place standing in points per game, and will be backed by an absolute lock-down defense—a team that is primed for an entrance onto the NFL’s biggest stage.

Strength of Schedule

I’ll get straight to the point by declaring that Manning and the Broncos will have to navigate the NFL’s second-most difficult schedule in 2012.

Their opposition’s win/loss record amounted to 139-117 and a winning percentage of .543 in 2011. They face seven quality opponents, also tied for second-most in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, square off against the seventh-most vanilla schedule.

Their 2012 opponents compiled a 125-131 record last year and marginal .488 winning percentage. They’ll battle two fewer quality teams as well.

An advantage lies with the Broncos by not having to play the Green Bay Packers, but both teams face the New Orleans Saints and Patriots so that’s essentially a push.

And away from the friendly confines of Mile High in Denver, the Broncos confront a daunting opponent winning percentage of .570, while the Niners can feast on opponents rocking a .438 winning percentage at the always unpredictable Candlestick Park.

Even if Smith and the Niners manage a loss against the 15-1 Packers, they’ll be fully comfortable against the Detroit Lions, New York Giants, divisional foes and, yes, the Patriots.

Manning’s relative unfamiliarity with the AFC West—an up-and-coming division minus the Oakland Raiders defense—will contribute to a few losses.

The NFC West is an improved division as well, but the 2-14 Rams are, well, the 2-14 Rams, a team currently without a defensive coordinator (see: Greg Williams, indefinite suspension). Smith will encounter less difficulty against his divisional opponents and schedule overall, regardless of it being stronger than the year prior.

The road to the Super Bowl XLVII posses far fewer obstacles for the 49ers than it does for Manning’s Broncos.

Continuity vs. Lack Thereof

The 49ers retained their complete starting defensive roster, the majority of its offense (plus additional weapons), a dominant special teams and the entire coaching staff.

Harbaugh, Greg Roman, Vic Fangio, Brad Seely and Co. will continue to develop the players they coached during the previous season. They’ll enjoy the benefit of a full offseason of mini-camps, OTAs and training camp to diversify playbooks for all facets of the game.

Heck, they won’t endure the pains of creating and executing a game plan on the fly.

Head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy return for the Broncos. Yet, they’ll have to install an entirely new offense with Peyton Manning.

Before the entire Bronco fan base unleash their wrath upon me based on that last assertion, I fully realize that they performed this task with an offense catered to Tim Tebow’s skill set after Kyle Orton’s 1-4 start.

I’m also cognizant of Manning’s masterful ability of being the de facto offensive coordinator while on the field and his assistance in developing the new system.

However, the fact remains that the Broncos will be starting from square one, while the Niners will improve upon an existing successful system. Harbaugh, Roman and Fangio’s schematics will become more dynamic as the players have another year at their disposal to master the game plans.

It would be illogical to assert that the 49ers will regress as a team after another year of practice and execution with the same regime. The same goes for league’s preeminent special teams unit under Seely.

Another significant change for the Broncos is the loss of defensive coordinator Dennis Allen who resurrected their defense from a putrid 32nd overall to No. 20 in the NFL.

New coordinator Jack Del Rio possesses a keen defensive intellect and is an experienced coach. Yet, he will also contend with the challenge of implementing a new defense.

Veteran coaches can plan, devise and administer all they want, but players still have to learn and execute.

The 49ers have a considerable advantage in this regard. Not even the ingenious Peyton Manning himself can overcome these burdens.

It is merely another reason why the Red and Gold advance to Super Bowl in 2012, its sixth appearance in franchise history, and not the Manning-led Broncos.

Only time will reveal whether he regrets his decision at the conclusion of his five-year contract.