2012 MLB Spring Training: Examining Boston Red Sox Starting Rotation Candidates

After the extremely disappointing end to last year's season, it was obvious that the Boston Red Sox were going to make some changes to their rotation.

With John Lackey done for the entire 2012 season, Erik Bedard signing with Pittsburgh and Tim Wakefield retiring, new manager Bobby Valentine no longer needs to worry about the struggles of those three, but rather is faced with the task of filling two rotation spots.

The Red Sox have opted not to go out and spend a lot of money on a supposed "sure thing" like C.J. Wilson, but instead have created an intense competition between about eight players (including journeymen veterans, young but unproven talents and converted relievers), in order to find two pitchers who can compete in the AL East.

Here, I will examine each of the potential candidates for the starting rotation spot, and whether they should and will be starting games for the Sox this April.

Daniel Bard

Daniel Bard is probably one of the most intriguing names in the competition because he was expected to be the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon as closer for the Red Sox. But, with Papelbon gone to Philadelphia, the Sox instead opted to bring in All-Star Andrew Bailey from Oakland and try to push Bard into the starting rotation.

While many analysts and fans believe that Bard will make enough progress to crack the rotation out of spring training, I just don't see it happening. He has been a very good reliever for the team the past few years, but it seems like he becomes exposed with the slightest bit of fatigue because of his lack of command and a large repertoire of pitches. 

Bard struggled originally as a starter during his first year with the Red Sox minor league system and only started dominating hitters when he was converted to the bullpen. I don't see Bard's skill set translating to the rotation, but only time will tell.

Alfredo Aceves

Arguably the sweatiest guy in baseball, former Yankee prospect Alfredo Aceves looked to be the only guy who pitched with any confidence during the Red Sox's epic collapse last September.

He had an incredible season in his first year in Boston, doing anything the team called for, whether that be starting games or logging substantial amounts of innings from the bullpen.

Because of this, Alfredo has not only earned the right to be part of the competition for the starting rotation in 2012, but he should be considered a favorite to get a spot.

Alfredo's versatility last year, where he showed very little fatigue while logging an incredible amount of innings in relief, will allow for an easy transition to a full-time starter.

Unless the Sox see him as a much better reliever than a starter, Aceves will make the rotation for the 2012 season.

Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller is another intriguing name for Red Sox fans to keep a close eye on during spring training. Miller was Daniel Bard's college teammate at the University of North Carolina and has been considered an elite prospect for both the Detroit Tigers and formerly Florida Marlins since he was drafted in 2006. 

Now in his second year with the Red Sox, Miller, 26, cannot really be considered a prospect anymore, but he still has an incredible talent that just hasn't translated to the big league level quite yet.

He struggled mightily in Boston's collapse last year, but his pure stuff is undeniable. If Miller put enough work into his craft over the offseason, he could definitely challenge for a starting rotation job.

If not, look for him to start the year in Pawtucket, or for the Red Sox to experiment with converting his stuff to the bullpen.

Felix Doubront

Felix Doubront has been up and down from Pawtucket the last few years as a top prospect in the Red Sox organization, but it might be just about time for the 24-year-old to settle into a full-time major league role, either as a starter or a reliever.

The Venezuela native has appeared in 23 games since 2010, while making three starts. He served as a solid starter most of last year for Pawtucket, but since he is now out of options, and the Red Sox are still intrigued with his stuff, he will most likely make the big league team out of spring training this year.

The Red Sox will need to make a decision about whether they believe him to be a starter or reliever in the long term. If they feel like Doubront could be a good major league starting pitcher, he is a serious candidate to make the rotation from the get-go.

Vicente Padilla

Vicente Padilla is the one of a few external pickups that the Red Sox made this year in order to strengthen the competition for starting rotation slots.

Padilla has been a successful, albeit never dominant, starting pitcher in the major leagues for quite some time, but due to injuries last year, he never cracked the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation and pitched just nine games out of the bullpen. 

He appears to be healthy in Fort Myers this year, where he has joined the Red Sox on a minor league deal. The Sox appear to be intrigued with his strange repertoire of pitches, and because of his level of success in the past, he has a legitimate chance to make the team as a starter out of spring training.

Aaron Cook

Another seasoned veteran that the Red Sox were able to buy low on this offseason is Aaron Cook, formerly of the Colorado Rockies.

Cook is a very intriguing option for the Red Sox, and I believe that he will make the team, and the rotation, out of spring training if he is healthy. 

Cook was a very solid pitcher for Colorado for a few years, including a 16-9 season in 2008, when he put up a 3.96 ERA. Of course, it is very difficult to pitch in Colorado, making these numbers just that much more impressive.

While pitching in Boston isn't much easier, it isn't outrageous to expect that Cook's fierce sinker ball will lead him to a much better season in 2012 than his atrocious final campaign in Colorado, in which he went 3-10 with a 6.03 ERA.

A change of scenery could do him some good.

Clay Mortensen

Clay Mortensen was the chip that the Red Sox got in the surprising trade of Marco Scutaro to the Rockies in January, and while it is a long shot, I'm sure he will be given a chance to compete for the open starting jobs.

Unlike Cook, Mortensen had a pretty successful year, pitching both in the starting rotation and out of the bullpen, finishing with an ERA of 3.86 in an extreme hitter's ballpark.

Though this was his first real success in the major leagues despite bouncing around since 2009, he is still only 26 and can improve on his success from last year.

Most likely, Mortensen will start the year in the rotation in Pawtucket, but don't be surprised if he pitches at Fenway at some point this season. 

John Maine

In 2007, he was arguably the New York Mets' best pitcher, but by 2012, John Maine is looking to return to the major leagues after spending 2011 in the Colorado Rockies minor league.

Maine suffered a setback in the middle of the 2010 season, when he had major shoulder surgery that ended his Mets career. He is a complete long shot to make the Red Sox rotation, but he should be assigned to Pawtucket, where he will be given a chance to prove himself throughout the year.

He received an invite to spring training, but at the moment, his name is not on the roster. I'm not sure what to think of that, but it probably confirms the fact that we will not be seeing Maine in Boston any time soon.

Ross Ohlendorf

Ross Ohlendorf is arguably the smartest man in baseball, holding a degree in Financial Engineering (whatever that is) from Princeton University and spending his offseasons working internships with the University of Texas and the Department of Agriculture.

That being said, he also was a pretty good pitcher in 2009, when he went 11-10 with a 3.92 ERA. He has been pretty miserable since, but like I've stressed before, a change of scenery can often do wonders.

I think signing Ohlendorf to a minor league deal was a good move, as at the very least, it just will add to the competition for the starting rotation and push the other guys to be better.

Carlos Silva

I think Carlos Silva is an awful pitcher and a clubhouse cancer and has about a 0.00000001 percent chance to make the team. 

That being said, he was a former major league starter, so I feel obligated to mention him on this list.

Honestly, I couldn't care less, just like the New York Yankees last year, when they were stuck with him in their minor league system.

Alex Wilson

Alex Wilson, a former second-round pick out of Texas A&M, had a very good minor league season last year between Portland and Pawtucket, but with all of the other options available, the chances that he makes the big league team off the bat are little to none.

He will most likely start the year around the top of the Pawtucket rotation and may be given a Kyle Weiland-like call-up at some point in the year.

He doesn't have top-of-the-rotation potential, but he could prove to be a decent back-of-the-rotation pitcher in the long run and has the possibility of moving to the bullpen.

Brandon Duckworth

Finally, the last pitcher worth mentioning.

Brandon Duckworth is an eight-year major league veteran with the Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals, who had a very productive year in the Pawtucket rotation in 2011. 

Duckworth also had a productive year with Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2010, but he hasn't seen any big league action in the past three years. 

Obviously, he will not make the Red Sox out of spring training and may be stuck in Triple-A for yet another year. But, if he continues to produce at the Triple-A level, this former big league veteran should be given consideration for a call-up.

My Prediction

It's so hard to predict who the No. 4 and No. 5 starters will be in Boston behind Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett.

There are so many pitchers that are vying for these spots, all with different things to prove, that it will take a lot of observation and evaluation from Bobby Valentine and his staff to make the decision.

That being said, if I were to predict right now who I think we will be seeing in the first rotation, it will be Alfredo Aceves and Vicente Padilla (or Aaron Cook).

Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard will be given very close looks, though, if it appears that they will be just as effective in the rotation as they are in the bullpen.