New York Mets 2012: Over/Under Predictions

Every year following the Super Bowl, many baseball fans turn their thoughts to the upcoming season. All teams open their Spring Training camps by mid-February, and the countdown to opening day begins.

The greatest thing about Spring Training is that every team gets a fresh start. Last season's records are in the history books and fans of every team can dream of a potential championship. (Perhaps fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals would disagree with that last statement.)

The best thing about being a Mets fan this season is that there are no expectations. While I will always root for the team and hold out hope that they will be a winning side, the realist in me thinks that the Mets are going to get worse before they get better.

With the club's cost cutting moves and the lack of big name signings to replace departed stars, most analysts are predicting that the Mets will be one of the worst teams in baseball.

With that being the case, I thought it would be interesting to look at the statistics of the 2011 Mets and forecast whether they will perform better or worse in 2012.

These are just my opinions, and I am very interested to see what other Mets fans think. Please let me know if you agree, disagree or have any other thoughts with regards to the 2012 New York Mets.

Team Wins

The 2011 Mets finished with a 77-85 record and were 25 games behind the division winning Philadelphia Phillies in fourth place.

They were 19th out of the 30 Major League clubs, with 11 teams putting up worse records than the Mets.

While the Phillies will remain the team to beat in the division, each of the Mets' other direct competitors have improved during the off season.

The Braves looked like certain NL Wild Card winners last fall before suffering a 2007-2008 Mets-like collapse. Despite that, the club still has solid pitching and hitting and should do reasonably well.

Both the Marlins and Nationals have made significant moves in their quests to challenge the Phillies and Braves. In addition to signing the Mets' Jose Reyes, the Marlins have brought in the fiery Ozzie Guillen to manage and former Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano.

The Nationals' starting rotation looks to be very solid with the return of phenom Stephen Strasburg along with newcomers Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez.

With the run-producing Jose Reyes gone from the top of the Mets' lineup, the team is going to have to hope that they can produce more power. This has been a major trouble spot for the team since they moved in to Citi Field in 2009.

Over/Under Prediction: Under

Sadly, I think the Mets will be lucky to win 70 games this season.

Team Batting Average

In the believe it or not category, the 2011 New York Mets actually hit quite well in comparison to the rest of the league. The team hit for a collective .264 batting average. This was the sixth best in baseball and one point higher than the crosstown Yankees.

Looking a bit deeper, the Mets scored a total of 718 runs, which was 12th best in the Majors. They also came in 18th out of 30 teams with a .391 slugging percentage.

The loss of batting leader Reyes will obviously hurt the Mets, with the unproven Ruben Tejada stepping in to take his spot. Angel Pagan's replacement, Andres Torres, hit just .221 with the Giants last season and has a career .244 average.

Reliable hitters Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy are expected to get more at bats this season, while the hopes are that David Wright and Jason Bay will have bounce back seasons at the plate.

Lucas Duda showed great potential in half a season, and expected starting catcher Josh Thole is still a question mark.

Over/Under Prediction: Under

The loss of Reyes, Pagan and Carlos Beltran in the lineup will be felt. Tejada and Thole are unproven, and new center fielder Torres does not hit for a high average. Wright, Davis, Murphy, Duda and Bay will have to carry the hitting responsibilities.

Staff ERA

The Mets' pitching staff certainly put the pressure on the hitters last season, as the combined staff ERA was 4.19. This was 21st out of the 30 clubs.

Outside of R.A. Dickey, every Mets starter had an ERA of 4.40 or higher. For the Mets to have any chance of competing, Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee are going to have to improve.

The big question for the Mets will be whether Johan Santana will be healthy and if he can come back as the Santana of old.

Let's give the Mets some credit, as they definitely improved their bullpen with the acquisitions of Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco and Ramon Ramirez. We just have to hope that these new relievers will have the opportunity to actually save some games.

These new additions will also make Spring Training more competitive for the bullpen holdovers from last season, as there will be fewer roster spots to be had. This will ensure that only those that perform in Florida will be brought north with the team.

Over/Under Prediction: Under

In this category, under is a good thing, and I do think that the Mets staff ERA will improve. They will still lose a lot of games, but with the return of Santana and the improved bullpen, the Mets should give up fewer runs. The problem will be scoring their own runs.

Home Runs

As all Mets fans are well aware of, there has been a major power shortage for the Mets ever since they moved to Citi Field. In 2011, the team hit 108 home runs. They were ranked 26th out of the 30 MLB clubs. Compare that to the league-leading Yankees, who hit 222 homers with the help of their short right field fence.

During the offseason, the Mets announced plans to move the outfield walls in by 12 feet and lower their height to eight feet. The previous wall, nicknamed "The Great Wall of Flushing," averaged a Major League low of 1.43 home runs per game.

Former outfielder Beltran led the team last season with just 15 homers, while power hitters Wright and Bay hit 14 and 12 respectively. The one bright spot was late season call-up Duda, who smacked ten homers in 301 at bats.

Over/Under Prediction: Over

With the return of Davis and Duda expected to get regular playing time, the 2012 Mets should get more power production. The new wall dimensions will hopefully help Wright, Bay and the rest of the team improve their home run potential.

Stolen Bases

It's no surprise that the Mets had the third most stolen bases in the National League with 130. They also ranked ninth out of all 30 MLB clubs.

The problem is that both Reyes with 39 and Pagan with 32 are gone.

Of the remaining Mets players, the next highest on the list are Wright with 13 and Bay with 11.

While Tejada is quick and could turn in to a successful base stealer, he had a total of just five in 96 games last season.

New center fielder Torres comes to the Mets with an impressive base stealing history. He had 19 steals last season and 26 in 2010.

The rest of the lineup is not known for its speed and outfielder/first baseman Lucas Duda might be one of the slowest guys in baseball.

Over/Under: Under

The loss of Reyes' speed is irreplaceable. Add in the departure of Pagan and the Mets will almost certainly steal fewer bases in 2012.

Complete Games

The Mets' pitching staff finished middle of the pack for complete games in 2011 with six. Way out in front were the Phillies with 18 and the San Diego Padres were dead last, going the entire season without any complete games.

Pelfrey completed two outings while Dickey, Gee, journeyman Miguel Batista and the departed Chris Capuano each had one.

Over/Under Prediction: Over

If Santana comes back and is healthy, the pitching staff should be able to throw more than six complete games. Dickey's knuckle ball makes him durable, while Niese and Gee have shown glimpses of becoming successful starting pitchers. Pelfrey to me is the biggest question mark.

Saves

While the Mets' bullpen certainly had its problems in 2011, the staff saved 43 games for a Major League rank of 11th out of 30.

Before the August trading deadline, K-Rod was the Mets closer and registered 23 saves. With his departure the veteran Jason Isringhausen along with Bobby Parnell and Manny Acosta combined for an additional 17 saves.

As previously stated, the Mets have bolstered their bullpen by bringing in Rauch, Francisco and Ramirez. The question now is how many chances will the relievers have to save games? 

Over/Under Prediction: Under

Regardless of how good the bullpen is, if the Mets starters cannot go deep in to games and hold a lead, saves may be a rare commodity in Queens.

Walks

While at times it seems as if the Mets' pitching staff was walk crazy in 2011, it was surprising to find out that the staff's combined 514 walks was only 14th in the majors.

Dillon Gee lead the staff with 71 bases on balls, however, the stats show that an alarming number of walks were issued by the bullpen.

Over/Under Prediction: Under

If Santana returns healthy and the new bullpen members are given opportunities to pitch in relief, the Mets' staff should be capable of lowering the amount of walks the team issues to opposing batters.

Errors

The 2011 Mets were a major disappointment defensively. The team's 116 errors was the fifth highest of all MLB teams and the club's combined .981 fielding percentage was the sixth lowest.

David Wright had an off season all around and committed a team leading 19 errors in 101 games for a .929 fielding percentage. 

In just 99 games, Daniel Murphy made ten errors for a .984 fielding percentage.

The loss of Reyes puts a big hole in the Mets lineup. Defensively, however, Ruben Tejada has a good glove and should provide solid play in the field.

New center fielder Andres Torres is fleet of foot and hopefully will be capable of covering a lot of ground in the Citi Field outfield.

The return of Ike Davis to first is another boost for the Mets both offensively and defensively.

While Wright should bounce back with his glove, some problem spots definitely remain.

Over/Under Prediction: Over

The Mets are apparently planning on using Daniel Murphy at second base. While Murphy can definitely hit, he is a major defensive liability.

Also problematic in the field is the slow Lucas Duda, who will be expected to cover a lot of ground in right field.

Then there's catcher Josh Thole. Still unproven, Thole committed a NL leading 16 passed balls in 2011.

Individual Hitting

If the 2012 Mets are to have any success they are going to need a major increase in individual hitting and run production from David Wright and Jason Bay.

Bay hit just .245 with 12 homers and 57 RBI's, while Wright's numbers were just slightly better at .254 with 14 homers and 61 RBI's.

Each have produced in the past, so fans will be hoping that both players rebound this season.

On the other hand, Lucas Duda, Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy have all demonstrated an ability to hit for average. All three have only been used as part time players thus far, so the verdict is out as to whether they can produce over the course of an entire season.

Over/Under Prediction: Push

I do think that Bay and Wright had off seasons and should put up better numbers all around.

However, a lot of expectations are being put on Duda, Davis and Murphy, and I'm not sure that they'll be able to sustain high batting averages and power production over the course of an entire season.

Individual Pitching

As for individual pitchers, the Mets are going to need an improvement from their starters if they are to have any chance at all. R.A. Dickey was the team's most reliable starter with a 3.28 ERA. Unfortunately for Dickey, the bullpen and hitters often let him down, and he finished the season with an 8-13 record.

At the other end of the spectrum is Mike Pelfrey. Given the honor of being named the opening day pitcher, Pelfrey again exasperated Mets fans, putting up an ugly 7-13 record with a 4.74 ERA.

Meanwhile the verdict is still out on Dillon Gee and Jonathon Niese. Both have potential but will need to prove it over the course of a full season.

The biggest question for the Mets is whether Johan Santana will be the elite pitcher he has always been. Prior to missing the entire 2011 season, Santana went 11-9 with 144 strikeouts and a 2.98 ERA in 2010.

As for the relievers, the new additions should help the bullpen in putting up better numbers in 2012.

Over/Under: Push

Attendance

The novelty of the Mets' new stadium, Citi Field, has worn off. Now in its fourth season, the Mets will need to deliver on the field in order to put fans in the seats and increase attendance.

While I suspect that the numbers might be inflated, the 2011 Mets announced an average game day attendance of 30,108. This ranks the Mets 14th out of the 30 MLB clubs for 2010. 

The Mets are planning on celebrating the club's 50th Anniversary throughout the season. The team has announced a couple of planned events for 2012 in order to attract fans. John Franco will be inducted in to the Mets' Hall of Fame in June, and the club is bringing back Banner Day in May. While once a popular franchise tradition, Banner Day could be a disaster if the Mets are not playing good ball.

Over/Under Prediction: Under

The fallout from the Wilpon's involvement with Bernie Madoff continues. The Mets are expected to have the highest one year payroll drop in Major League History. From $143 million last year, the team is projected to start the season with a payroll of just under $91 million. 

Despite ticket prices being reduced for the third straight year, I expect that the majority of fans are going to stay away. The fans are not stupid and realize that the Mets will almost certainly be putting out an inferior team. Mets fans have been through enough hell with the franchise since the 2006 season ended with the bases loaded in Game 7 of the NLCS. In these tough economic times, Mets fans will most likely express their dissatisfaction with the franchise in the form of empty seats.

Once again, please let me know your thoughts for the 2012 Mets and where you think they might improve or fall short.