49ers' Aldon Smith or Broncos' Von Miller: Who Will Win Defensive ROY?

With three games yet to be played, rookie outside linebackers Aldon Smith (San Francisco 49ers) and Von Miller (Denver Broncos) are the clear standouts of the 2011 NFL draft on the defensive side of the ball. Who has a better shot to finish the season with an exclamation point and win the defensive ROY award?

So far, the obvious choice would have to be Miller. He has been starting most of the year for the Broncos, and he has one more sack than Smith. Project forward through the last three games, though, and you'll find that things could change in a hurry.

Von Miller

Miller is playing with a large cast on his right hand/arm that he isn't supposed to use as a club. This additional aspect gives Miller both advantages and disadvantages. 

The advantage is that he can really hammer the arms/hands of the offensive linemen trying to block him, causing them to not be able to get their hands on him as he flies right by them. He's quick with his hands already, and now he has a few extra pounds to swing around as he tries to get around his blocker. +1

One disadvantage to having the cast is that Miller will have a tougher time wrapping up runners in one on one situations. He's essentially out there with one good hand. -1

Another disadvantage is that Miller will have more trouble catching any balls that might come his way in the passing game. -1

Schedule:

• New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (Patriots 5th in NFL, giving up 22 sacks) -1
• Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (Bills 1st in NFL, giving up 17 sacks) -1
• Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (Chiefs 20th in NFL, giving up 33 sacks) +1.5

If you add it all up, Miller could be in for a rough go of it the final three weeks. -1.5

Aldon Smith

Aldon Smith has been coming on strong again after taking a few weeks off from greatness. The 49ers need to utilize his rare abilities. He should be starting. 

In the last four games, Smith has recorded four sacks and forced one fumble. 

One disadvantage to Smith's case is that the 49ers aren't using him enough. The rookie out of Missouri only comes in when the team plays in the nickel. He is used more like a defensive end than an outside linebacker. -1

Schedule:

• Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers (Steelers 24th in NFL, giving up 37 sacks) +1.5
• San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (Seahawks 28th in NFL, giving up 41 sacks) +1.5
• San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (Rams 32nd in NFL, giving up 46 sacks) +2

That looks like pretty good hunting for Smith, and I expect him to have his way in all three games. +4

Conclusion 

All of this means nothing, because players prove us wrong every single week in the NFL. Miller has the edge this week, and Smith might have a three-sack performance against the Steelers in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. 

Call me a homer if you must, but I am predicting a late-season push by Smith to overtake the electric Miller and win the NFL Defensive ROY award.