NFL Picks Week 11: The Safest Teams to Bet on Based on History vs. the Spread

Katie DayCorrespondent INovember 17, 2011

NFL Picks Week 11: The Safest Teams to Bet on Based on History vs. the Spread

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    Week 11 of the NFL has arrived and it's here early, so grab your money and—if you're cautious—bet on the safest teams based on their history rather than relying on the Vegas spread. It will be good for those of you who have no idea what a spread is.

    So if you're tight on money or saving up for the holidays, here's some quick ways to make some money to bet on teams that are for sure going to win based on their history versus the spread.

Baltimore Ravens

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    The Baltimore Ravens play at home against Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Vegas spread for this game is:


    Baltimore: -7

    Baltimore is the favorite to win by seven or more points at home. If you look at their schedule this season, you'll see that the Ravens are undefeated on their home turf and won most of those games by double-digits.

    While the Bengals have shown to be strong on the road, this may be the one place where the Ravens will step up and defend their home territory.

    The Ravens are coming off an upsetting loss against the Seahawks and are looking to rebound.

Detroit Lions

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    The Detroit Lions are coming off a loss that they needed to win against the Bears in Week 10. They return home to face the Carolina Panthers. While they lost the last two games at home, history shows (against Kansas City and Denver) that the Lions will blow out the teams considerably weaker than them.

    Also, the Lions are fourth in the league in passing defense. They'll be limiting Cam Newton.

    The spread for the game is:

    Carolina: +7

    Detroit: -7

    Carolina has rarely been covered by the spread this year and their record proves why.

    Bet on Detroit to cover the spread or go against the spread in this game.

Green Bay Packers

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    This is a big no-brainer. The Packers are undefeated. They have blown out most of their opponents this season. They are playing at home where they have dominated this year. The spread for their upcoming game is:

    Tampa Bay: +13.5

    Green Bay: -13.5

    Bet against the spread in this one. It's obvious the Packers are going to win by more than 13.5 points. Tampa Bay has one of the worst passing and rushing defense in the league. They won't be able to stop the Packers, especially at Lambeau Field. 

San Francisco

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    Put your money on the 49ers in this upcoming game versus the Arizona Cardinals. The Vegas spread states this:

    Arizona: +9.5

    San Francisco: -9.5

    San Francisco has won all but one of their games at home. Arizona has lost all but one of their games on the road. At the rate both teams have been going and their history, it's obvious that this game will go the 49ers way on Sunday.

New England Patroits

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    Another easy bet to place. The Patriots are playing their second Monday night game this season and it's against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have been struggling all season and they lost last week at home to their division-rival, Denver Broncos.

    The Patriots are known to be putting points up on the board, especially with Tom Brady and their improved rushing game. They will be playing with a home field advantage.

    This game is in the bags for New England.

    The spread on the game was:

    Kansas City: +15.5

    New England: +15.5

    For this game, ignore the spread and just bet against it.