Though he is testing the free agent market for the first time since becoming a Red Sox in 2003, DH David Ortiz seems destined to return in 2012, likely agreeing to a two year contract.
Closer Jonathan Papelbon may find a team willing to give him the record-setting contract he desires in free agency, but at the end of the day I think he returns to Boston on a four-year deal. If he isn't retained, look for Francisco Rodriguez or Joe Nathan to become the team's closer in the short-term, as Daniel Bard is groomed for the role in a year or two.
Boston may be reluctant to hand out another five-year contract to a pitcher in his 30s following the John Lackey disaster, and may look to cheaper alternatives. Ultimately, I think they sign Mark Buehrle or Edwin Jackson to serve as the team's #4 starter, while acquiring another starter via trade.
Adding offense doesn't figure to be a major part of Boston's offseason plan, and in the end I think they let Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish compete in Spring Training for the job in right field.
Remember, this team barely missed out on the playoffs despite a historical collapse in September, so overreacting with major spending in free agency doesn't seem wise. With a bounce-back season expected from Carl Crawford and an improved starting rotation, Boston could approach the 100-win mark in 2012.