Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Sports betting is very similar to the stock market and oddsmakers can go a little too far in terms of public perception sometimes.
The Green Bay Packers are currently receiving the highest percentage of bets in Las Vegas, which has pushed the opening number higher, as most shops have moved the line by 2.5 points.
Last year's playoff game between these two teams was a bloodbath, as Atlanta earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, only to be handed a 48-21 loss as one-point home favorites.
The Falcons have been unimpressive this season, but bettors need to examine last week's time of possession.
Atlanta come out with a 40:10 to 19:50 advantage, which will allow the defense to be well rested against one of the league's best offenses.
Also, Green Bay must prepare for Atlanta rookie wide receiver Julio Jones, who broke out for 11 catches and 127 receiving yards last week.
Did I mention that Matt Ryan is one of the best home quarterbacks in the NFL?
He's never gone off as a home underdog of this price in his career.
That's enough for me.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+6)