If.
That might be the key word for the Colorado Rockies this offseason.
The Rockies' needs for this offseason shift drastically depending on the "ifs."
The Colorado Rockies went into the 2008 offseason knowing that they had holes to fill on a squad that went 74-88 and finished 10 games out of first place in the worst division in baseball.
After the 2007 World Series, Rockies owners Dick and Charlie Monfort were so thrilled with the Cinderella ride to the World Series, that they said they would do what it took to keep the core of the league champions intact.
The feeling was that the youthful club, who peaked before they were anticipated to, would only get better with the experienced they had just gained.
This year's offseason plans could not be more different.
After learning the lesson that a team cannot have enough depth, the Rockies go into this offseason looking for much more.
The most glaring need for the Rockies is a No. 2 or No. 3 level starter. The Rockies could never turn the corner after Franklin Morales and free agent acquisition Kip Wells did not do the job.
This will pose Dan O'Dowd problems as he looks for a pitcher that has enough Major League experience to be considered a front-end starter, but young enough to fit into the Rockies budget.
The stater could be acquired through free agency or via trade. Rumors swirled during the general managers' meetings early this month in California that the Rockies would ship out center fielder Willy Taveras to the Yankees for Ian Kennedy or Phil Hughes, both young starters who lost their way under the scrutiny that comes with playing in New York.
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If the Rockies can pull off a trade involving Taveras, there may need to be a stop-gap brought in that can play center field on an everyday basis in case top prospect Dexter Fowler is not ready for full time duty in the big leagues.
With the departure of Matt Holliday to the A's, and potential departure of slugging third baseman Garrett Atkins, the Rockies are also in need of some middle-of-the-order thump in their lineup.
If the Rockies end up keeping Atkins, the plan is for former first-round draft choice Ian Stewart to learn left field. This would allow Clint Hurdle to get Stewart's bat into the lineup, and also allow flexibility in case Todd Helton is not completely ready to go, or needs more off days. Stewart could easily slide back into third base, with Atkins moving to first.
If the Rockies end up dealing Atkins, Stewart would be the everyday third baseman with left field being manned by Carlos Gonzalez, who was picked up in the Holliday deal.
If Gonzalez is not ready for everyday outfield duties, Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith could fill in, depending of course, if Willy Taveras has not been dealt and Dexter Fowler starts in Triple-A, meaning their services are not needed on a daily basis in center field.
The Rockies are also courting Dodger Brad Penny. This move comes with some risk, as Penny, who will be 31 in May, is coming off an injury-plauged season, and would require a significantly higher payout than a younger arm.
Penny's option was not picked up by the Dodgers, leaving him to find a new home for 2009. His 2008 season was beset by injuries and he finished with a 6-9 record with a 4.25 ERA in 19 games.
Penny is only one year removed from finishing third in the National League Cy Young voting, a year in which he represented the Dodgers in the All Star Game.
Penny's health is a huge question mark for the Rockies, even before his 2008 season was riddled with injuries, he was known for rarely making it past the 5th inning.
Another way the Rockies may be able to secure a starting pitcher is to flip Gonzalez and Huston Street, also acquired in the Holliday deal.
Gonzalez has a ton of upside and Street could be in demand with so many clubs in need of a closer. If the Mets do not land Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, they could look to deal one of their young starters for Street.
How the Rockies will find their front-end starter remains to be the biggest "if" and will be a large factor in whether or not the club will be a contender in the National League West in 2009.
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about 1 month ago
Nice article. Helton and Penny are the 2 most important issues to me. You get the wheels turning with these types of articles, great job. Losing Matt was tough, we'll see how they bounce back.
from about 1 month ago
It is tough to lose Holliday, that is for sure. Do you think we should get Penny? I think there may be a little too much risk involved in getting him. He was hurt a lot last year, and the 2 previous years he was only going 5 innings or so. He would probably cost 9 million too. I am an optimist, but I predict Helton to hit .330 this year with 100 RBI. Maybe I'm crazy, but a healthy Helton is as good of hitter as anyone in the league. Thoughts?
about 1 month ago
David, you are right, you are indeed an optimist. Helton has not had a season resembling the one that you are describing in years. I sincerely hope that you are right, though, because if Helton were to have that type of season, I would expect the Rox would be right in the middle of the NL West race.
BTW- I would be both amazed and thrilled if the Rockies spent the $$$ to sign Penny. His best years may be behind him, but the Rox would have 4 legit MLB starters if Brad Penny joined the rotation.
from about 1 month ago
I think I am an optimist about Helton, but here is my rationale...three years ago he had the intestinal disease and lost 15 pounds. He still hit .304. Two years ago he hit .320. In both years his power numbers were down, but I wonder how much was due to the back injury that he finally had fixed. Helton is the kind of guy that plays through pain, so in reality, this could have been bugging him for 2+ years.
The thing that scares me with Penny is that if he fails, our ownership will NEVER sign even a semi high priced free agent again. His history scares me.
Thanks for the comment, I appreciate you reading my article.
about 1 month ago
Good read David. I was perplexed as to how badly they played after almost winning it all in 07. I think Penny might be a worthwhile, cheap gamble. In fact, that's what I would do if running the team, I would ook for bargains because there will be some and stay away from the big named free agents for now. You're a talented writer, keep up the good work.
from about 1 month ago
Bob,
Thanks for the read, and thanks for the compliment. I appreciate it. The only way I sign Brad Penny if I am in charge is with an incentive based contract. But I really don't see a high priced free agent worth signing for the Rockies this offseason.
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