How Penn State Will Play for the BCS Championship

First things first. Let us examine the current top ten in the BCS rankings [link];

1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. Southern California
7. Utah
8. Penn State
9. Boise State
10. Georgia

Clearly some teams (many in fact) will have to stumble along the way and Penn State must win their remaining two games against Indiana and Michigan State. For argument's sake let us assume the Nittany Lions close out their home season with two home victories and Penn State wins the Big Ten, with a record of 11-1. Let's go down the rankings and explore what Penn State fans will be rooting for team by team.


#1 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
There is no love lost for Alabama, dating back to the 1979 Sugar Bowl...


Like many college football fans outside of the Crimson Tide fan base, they do not like Nick Saban either. Alabama controls their own destiny to the BCS championship game though so a loss, maybe two would have to happen. Alabama will play Mississippi State and Auburn at home and has locked up a date with the Florida Gators in the SEC title game. I believe Florida is going to win that SEC Championship so let us mark down a loss for Saban and company. Another game to watch will be the Auburn game. Auburn has beaten Alabama six straight times and they may very well be fighting for bowl eligibility of their own entering that game. The Tigers are sitting at 5-5, one shy of becoming bowl eligible and face Georgia this weekend. Plus you know Auburn will be fired up to trash their bitter rival's chance at a national championship. As Lee Corso might say, this one will be closer than the experts think.

Two losses for the Crimson Tide? Entirely possible, although Auburn's offense is almost non-existent.


2. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
When discussing the Big XII we need to have some patience. Who represents the Big XII South can be hard to figure out depending on how this week's game between Tech and Oklahoma fares. Texas Tech, like Alabama, controls their own destiny. If they beat Oklahoma in Norman this weekend, the picture is a lot clearer. Naturally, if the Raiders win out they will play for the BCS Championship. I don't think that will happen.

In fact I fully believe that Oklahoma (the team I believe will be in the Big XII title game) is going to beat them this weekend so we will explore this scenario. If Oklahoma wins this weekend then Texas Tech would only have one game remaining in the regular season, against Baylor. I do not think there is any way that Baylor wins that game, so I am predicting an 11-1 finish for Texas Tech, with no shot at the Big XII title. While not winning your conference, let alone playing for your conference championship, is not required by the BCS formula, it does account for something in the pollster's minds. If Tech loses to Oklahoma and gets exposed they could drop in the rankings behind three teams who likely win their conference titles, making it hard to overcome and reach the championship game. One might think that the champion from the Big XII, SEC, Big Ten and possibly the Pac-10 might be ranked higher than Tech in this situation.

Expect an 11-1, Big XII Championship-less season for the Red Raiders.


#3 TEXAS LONGHORNS
Here is where things get interesting. Texas, even if it wins their next three games is likely to be on the outside looking in at the Big XII championship game, leaving them in the same category as Texas Tech, who beat the Longhorns to start this whole mess.

The Longhorns beat Oklahoma and if my prediction of Oklahoma over Texas Tech holds, the Sooners would likely be ranked above Texas, setting the whole Longhorn community in a fit of rage (understandably). But Texas still has business to take care of themselves, and a loss isn't exactly impossible. Texas has a rescheduled game this weekend against Arkansas, struggling for bowl eligibility and of course from the almighty SEC. After that it is a pair of Big XII games against Kansas (on the road) and the rivalry game with Texas A&M. Texas has shown weaknesses against good quarterbacks and Kansas has one themselves. Kansas can score points with the best of them and they are also 5-1 at home. Kansas will be no push over for the Longhorns. If Texas can survive those two games then all of their marbles will be put up against the Aggies in the final game of the regular season. As I mentioned earlier I believe that Oklahoma will be playing in the Big XII championship game, so Texas' last chance to prove something will be against their biggest rival. In a familiar position, Texas A&M will be fighting for bowl eligibility (currently 4-6 with Baylor and Texas remaining). The Aggies would love to beat Texas in any situation, but for a chance to bump the Longhorns to a possible 10-2 would be priceless.

Texas will have to get a second loss if Penn State wants to pass them, and it is not impossible.


#4 FLORIDA GATORS
The Gators appear to be the favorites to claw their way to the championship game in the BCS. And as mentioned earlier, I believe they will win the SEC Championship game against Alabama. Even winning the SEC though does not make me believe it will be impossible for Penn State to jump the Gators in the final BCS rankings. Before Florida gets to Atlanta they have three games to play.

This week the Gators host division rival South Carolina, coached by none other than Steve Spurrier, a former Florida Gator icon (well he still is but you know what I mean). Florida may be ahead of the other USC in terms of where their program is, but you know Spurrier would love to knock off his old team in his old stomping grounds. It likely will not happen, but Florida did lose at home this year to a less superior team (Mississippi). And South Carolina is not a team to overlook either. They are 7-3 and a Top 25 team entering this game. Let's see what the ole ball coach has cooked up this weekend! If Florida does survive the Gamecocks, they are rewarded with what is essentially a bye week against The Citadel. That's right, the 3-7 Bulldogs will travel to Gatorville as a human sacrifice and a big payday as the Gators prepare for their end of the season game at Florida State.

The Gators should watch out for Florida State. Florida State is better this year and on track to play for the ACC championship. Bobby Bowden's team is 5-1 at home so far this season, and of course Bowden wants to keep pace with Joe Paterno! The Seminoles will be jacked up to play a possible role of spoiler for the Gators. I mark this down as a loss for the Florida Gators.

That would mean Florida would have two losses before the SEC championship game, which again I believe they will win. Penn State would be in great position to pass the Gators as they will finish their season the week before Florida plays Florida State, and of course before the SEC championship game.


#5 OKLAHOMA SOONERS
If you think Oklahoma will be the least likely team that Penn State jumps, I think you are right. As I have already mentioned, Oklahoma is my pick to play in the Big XII championship game. In order for my prediction, and the basis of this whole argument, to come true that means they have to beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State next week (unless Baylor knocks off Tech and Texas loses to A&M but that's a whole other can of worms we'll worry about if it happens). Assuming that does happen it does not mean Penn State can't jump the Sooners in the final BCS rankings.

Oklahoma will still have to play the Big XII title game. Even if Oklahoma wins the Big XII game it would still be possible for the Nittany Lions to sneak in to the BCS championship game. For the basis of the argument, let's assume Oklahoma wins the Big XII and solidifies a spot in the national championship. But if they lost...

Missouri is on track to play in the Big XII title game and Chase Daniel, although he has been exposed more this season, still has the tools to pull an upset. Oklahoma though needs to get to the title game. A loss to either Tech or the rival Cowboys would surely drop them below Penn State.

It's a toss up. I think Oklahoma is going to win the next two weeks, and is likely to win the Big XII. With that said, expect the Sooners to finish at 12-1. 11-2 is what to wish for though, as long as the second loss comes in the Big XII championship game.


#6 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
No coach is probably more furious about the BCS than Pete Carroll, but his team lost to Oregon State, who is currently on track for the Rose Bowl. The USC Trojans though have a realistic shot to jump some of the other BCS contenders in the following week. Will it happen? Truthfully, probably. They have the easiest schedule the rest of the way, with Stanford presenting the biggest obstacle in their final three games.

Stanford pulled the upset at USC last year so one would think USC is using that as fuel to take care of business this season. But Stanford is better this year than they were last year. A win at home, where they are undefeated this season, would clinch the Cardinal bowl eligibility, something you don't want to put on the line in the final week of the season against your bitter rival (Cal). Clearly we know that this is not an impossible task just by looking at last year. But if it doesn't happen then our hopes rely on Notre Dame and UCLA the following two weeks.

Notre Dame may be better this year than in 2007, but in reality that is not saying diddly poo. Add in the fact that the game will be at USC and the Irish can't win on the road and all signs are pointing to yet another Trojan victory. Charlie Weis has to earn his money somehow though, right? If he isn't going to be taking his team to BCS games than he might as well beat USC and earn some staying power with Irish fans.

USC finishes up with UCLA, who has no defense and can not win on the road. But they did knock off USC a few years ago to mess up things a little bit. Here's hoping to a repeat performance by the Bruins.

Count on USC finishing their season 11-1. The Trojans are in the same situation as Penn State, where they do not play a conference championship game. If all other scenarios happen then USC is more likely to slip into the championship picture instead of Penn State. But if Jimmy Clausen gains some of that old Irish magic from the legend of Joe Montana then who knows...

Never before did I anticipate hoping for a Notre Dame victory.


#7 UTAH UTES
Perhaps the easiest team for Penn State to sneak by will be Utah. While there is no logic to predict Utah will falter on the road at 1-9 San Diego State be sure to pay attention to the following game against BYU. If BYU can get past Air Force this weekend then next week's game will be for the Mountain West title. A Utah win would win it outright while a BYU win could set up a three way tie between the two schools and TCU. Utah beat TCU who beat BYU who could beat Utah. Yowza!

Here is where I am going to argue against my true feelings. I believe that if you go undefeated in the regular season than you should have a chance at the national championship by any means necessary. While some may point to last year's Hawaii team to argue against that thought, I will point to Boise State or Auburn or USC (or Penn State of course). All three of those schools will agree with my feeling. However, I know how polls go and a one loss Penn State is likely to jump an undefeated Utah team, or at least make up enough ground in whatever computer ranking they need to pass Utah in the BCS formula.

Utah may be leaking some oil as well. The offense has put up 26 points in the last two games and the pollsters will always have a prejudice against the little guys. Fair? No. But a loss to BYU is a real possibility and that would dismantle all hope of a BCS bowl bid, allowing Penn State to move up a spot anyway.


CONCLUSION
So now that I have explained those scenarios to you in detail, what am I expecting the final BCS rankings to look like? I am glad you asked...

1. Texas - Being idle they will rise to #1
   
2. Penn State - Big Ten champs rise to #2 while idle
   
3. Missouri - Surprising Big XII champ
   
4. Boise St - WAC champs bust the BCS party again, advancing past others while idle
   
5. Oklahoma - Will fall to #4 after beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State but losing to Missouri
   
6. Texas Tech - A loss to the Sooners will doom them.
   
7. Ohio State - Forget about these guys?
   
8. Florida - Seminoles knock them down, but the Gators win the SEC.
   
9. Alabama - Losing to Gators in the SEC title game, after losing to Auburn
   
10. Ball State - A team to watch closely as the season winds down. They could be the first MAC team to crash the BCS if things roll their way!