Jim Thome: Why He Will Walk into the Baseball Hall of Fame

By Joe Procopio , Contributor
Aug 24, 2011

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Jim Thome: Why He Will Walk into the Baseball Hall of Fame

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It's fascinating, from a purely statistical standpoint, that there's an argument over whether or not the Minnesota Twins' 600-homer-hitting Jim Thome will be inducted to the Hall of Fame.

It's a true historian vs. geek argument, the kind that has been putting wives and philosophy students alike into nap-like states since the beginning of time.

As for credentials, awards, and intangibles, I can only guess at what a voting committee might think.

Yeah, Thome has no MVP, no ring and only a handful of All-Star appearances—a total lack of the key ingredients that make up a dominant player.

But when you use the right numbers, Thome could be A-Rod—if it weren't for Barry.

Take a gander at these stats for Thome vs fellow 600-plus man and Cooperstown-lock Alex Rodriguez when we chop off the first three years of Thome's career (thereby conceding the completely inarguable fact that the velocity of A-Rod's upward mobility is meteoric) and discount this current year, as well, as we're still playing it out.

Jim Thome

Season	G	HR	RBI	R	EBH	BA	OPS	BB
2010	108	25	59	48	43	.283	1.039	60
2009	124	23	77	55	38	.249	.847	69
2008	149	34	90	93	62	.245	.865	91
2007	130	35	96	79	54	.275	.973	95
2006	143	42	109	108	68	.288	1.014	107
2005	59	7	30	26	14	.207	.712	45
2004	143	42	105	97	71	.274	.977	104
2003	159	47	131	111	80	.266	.958	111
2002	147	52	118	101	73	.304	1.122	122
2001	156	49	124	101	76	.291	1.040	111
2000	158	37	106	106	71	.269	.929	118
1999	146	33	108	101	62	.277	.967	127
1998	123	30	85	89	66	.293	.997	89
1997	147	40	102	104	65	.286	1.001	120
1996	151	38	116	122	71	.311	1.062	123
1995	137	25	73	92	57	.314	.996	97
1994	98	20	52	58	41	.268	.882	46

Alex Rodriguez

Season	G	HR	RBI	R	EBH	BA	OPS	BB
2010	137	30	125	74	61	.270	.847	59
2009	124	30	100	78	48	.286	.933	80
2008	138	35	103	104	68	.302	.965	65
2007	158	54	156	143	85	.314	1.067	95
2006	154	35	121	113	62	.290	.914	90
2005	162	48	130	124	78	.321	1.031	91
2004	155	36	106	112	62	.286	.888	80
2003	161	47	118	124	83	.298	.995	87
2002	162	57	142	125	86	.300	1.015	87
2001	162	52	135	133	87	.318	1.021	75
2000	148	41	132	134	77	.316	1.026	100
1999	129	42	111	110	67	.285	.943	56
1998	161	42	124	123	82	.310	.919	45
1997	141	23	84	100	66	.300	.846	41
1996	146	36	123	141	91	.358	1.045	59
1995	48	5	19	15	13	.232	.672	6
1994	17	0	2	4	0	.204	.445	3

Let's call this these players' "prime."

Beyond the basic symmetry of the trajectory of the numbers, you'll note that games and home runs are very close on a per-season basis (134 and 34 vs 135.5 and 36). Sure, A-Rod has more RBI, runs, and extra-base hits and also a better batting average.

OK, so right before I talked myself back out of this argument, I asked: If A-Rod were that much better at the plate, why is Thome's on-base plus slugging (OPS), so much higher than A-Rod’s (.964 to .916)?

Simple enough: It's the walks.

Thome was in the MLB top 10 for walks 10 times from 1995 to 2006.

A-Rod was in the top 10 once, in 2005, one of only two years Thome wasn't. Furthermore, Thome led that top 10 in home runs in 2002 and 2003 and would have led it in 2001 and 2000 were it not for Barry Bonds.

2002 MLB Player Leaders for Walks

BB	Player	Team	HR
198	Barry Bonds	San Francisco Giants	46
135	Brian Giles	Pittsburgh Pirates	38
128	Adam Dunn	Cincinnati Reds	26
122	Jim Thome	Cleveland Indians	52
109	Jason Giambi	New York Yankees	41
107	Lance Berkman	Houston Astros	42
107	Chipper Jones	Atlanta Braves	26
104	Rafael Palmeiro	Texas Rangers	43
104	Bobby Abreu	Philadelphia Phillies	20
103	Sammy Sosa	Chicago Cubs	49

2003 MLB Player Leaders for Walks

BB	Player	Team	HR
148	Barry Bonds	San Francisco Giants	45
129	Jason Giambi	New York Yankees	41
111	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	33
111	Jim Thome	Philadelphia Phillies	47
109	Bobby Abreu	Philadelphia Phillies	20
109	Carlos Delgado	Toronto Blue Jays	42
107	Lance Berkman	Houston Astros	25
105	Brian Giles	San Diego Padres	20
102	Jose Cruz Jr	San Francisco Giants	20
100	Frank Thomas	Chicago White Sox	42
100	Erubiel Durazo	Oakland Athletics	21

That sounds dominant.

This should be figured out by the first ballot. The numbers show that Jim Thome was feared and, in the prime of his prime anyway, as feared as Barry Bonds.

Combine that with 600 home runs, and he's a lock. If he picks up a ring on his way out, he's a first-ballot lock.

Statistically speaking, of course.

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