Fantasy Free Agency: Ray Rice's Stock Up, Arian Foster's Down

The incredible free agency rush is beginning to wind down, especially on the offensive skill position side, which is obviously your focus in fantasy.

Most fantasy rankings are putting Arian Foster anywhere from first to third. First of all, I think expectations should be tempered with Foster. He put up a lot of touchdowns, which is something that almost always regresses to the mean the season after. He was also benefited from very good offensive run blocking last season.

This is not to say that Foster lacks elite skills, he clearly does. In truth, he has a similar skill set to Ray Rice. Both can catch the ball quite well, are good in space, and lack the bruising nature of backs like Hillis and All Day. Foster is probably better than Rice between the tackles, he does have the added benefit of size but isn't quite as elusive in the open field.

Statistically, he will regress in terms of sheer fantasy points. Not only from a naturally coming back to the mean, but from the regression of his offensive line and all around blocking. That line played above it's talent last year, and this is the key: Vonta Leach is gone. Leach made the pro bowl for the first time last year, and for good reason. Leach's blocks found their way onto the highlight reel consistently last year. He was responsible for a lot of extra yards gained for his running back.

This free agency saw Leach go to the Baltimore Ravens, and you will see Leach get many of those same blocks for Ray Rice. Combine that with Willis McGahee going to the Broncos and not thieving anything from Rice and you have a perfect combination for fantasy success. Many people aren't even considering Rice as a first round prospect. I suggest you take advantage of that.