Fantasy Football Rankings 2011: Value Picks Who Could Win You a Championship
If you've ever played fantasy football on more than one site in the same season, you've noticed the distinct variations in the way different sites pre-rank players. As a result, players often achieve significantly different average draft positions (ADPs) on different sites.
Since most sites use the same or similar scoring systems, comparing these ADPs can be a good way of determining a player's relative value on a specific site. If a player gets picked in the third round on one site, taking him in the fifth round on another site would constitute a good value.
This slideshow will examine variations between player ADPs from Yahoo! and ESPN mock drafts. This information will be used to create a high-value sample team from each site.
Team Yahoo: Tom Brady, QB (New England Patriots)
1 of 13ESPN ADP: 17.3
Y! ADP: 23.3
I know, I know— Tom Brady is not a value pick.
That might be true, but let me retort with this: Is there any good reason Brady is going six spots later on Y! than on ESPN?
That's the essence of this list. If you want a QB late in the second or early in the third, Brady and Peyton are your guys, but so far Brady has outlasted Peyton in Y! drafts and vice versa.
Team Yahoo: Mike Wallace, WR (Pittsburgh Steelers)
2 of 13ESPN ADP: 25.9
Y! ADP: 30.6
Wallace is an interesting fantasy player. He's a long-ball threat on a running offense, which makes him kind of hit or miss. Fortunately he had more hits than misses last year, finishing fifth in the league in receiving yards and scoring 10 TDs on just 60 catches.
It should be mentioned that Yahoo! uses three WR slots and no flex, instead of two WR and a RB/WR. This makes the receivers on this list and the running backs on the ESPN list even more valuable.
Team Yahoo: Vincent Jackson, WR (San Diego Chargers)
3 of 13ESPN ADP: 31.1
Y! ADP: 37.6
I'm not crazy about Vincent Jackson, but he belongs on this list. He has only had one good game in the last 18 months (he's only played four), so I don't agree with taking him before Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson or Dwayne Bowe.
To be fair, he did have one hell of a game (five catches, 112 yards, three TDs), and he's in a pass-first offense, so he'll get plenty of opportunities.
Team Yahoo: Jonathan Stewart, RB (Carolina Panthers)
4 of 13ESPN ADP: 31.9
Y! ADP: 81.5
Stewart's stock drops from the news that DeAngelo Williams will return to Carolina, but Stewart's got a reputation as a TD vulture, at least.
His ADP will rise on ESPN, but I doubt it will go anywhere near the 80's. It also could rise even higher on Y!, so he could be a nice bye week fill-in in the eighth or ninth round.
Team Yahoo: Knowshon Moreno, RB (Denver Broncos)
5 of 13ESPN ADP: 37.8
Y! ADP: 85.7
Moreno gains quite a bit from the DeAngelo Williams decision, as well as Miami's acquisition of Reggie Bush. His ADPs should both drop, but if Moreno remains the feature back in Denver, he could put up top 15 numbers, which would be a good value at No. 30 and a steal at No. 50.
Team ESPN: Michael Turner, RB (Atlanta Falcons)
6 of 13ESPN ADP: 14.6
Y! ADP: 7.9
Turner is an injury risk, but the Falcons were one of the best offenses in the league in 2010 with Turner running for nearly 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Jerious Norwood is a free agent, so for now, Turner will only have to battle rookie Jacquizz Rodgers for carries. Turner has only 23 receptions in three seasons in Atlanta, so he has significantly less value in a PPR league, but in a standard ESPN league, he has great value in the mid-second round.
Team ESPN: Larry Fitzgerald, WR (Arizona Cardinals)
7 of 13Y! ADP: 20.4
No one had a more frustrating 2010 season than Fitzgerald. One of the league's most dangerous downfield threats, Fitzgerald managed a career-worst six touchdowns with Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall and Richard Bartel (Who?) throwing to him last year.
Fitz should be able to easily eclipse his 2010 totals of 1,137 yards and six scores with Kevin Kolb throwing him the ball, so expect him to move up draft boards soon.
Team ESPN: Dwayne Bowe, WR (Kansas City Chiefs)
8 of 13ESPN ADP: 35.8
Y! ADP: 28.7
The Kansas City Chiefs were arguably the surprise of the 2010 season, and Bowe was a huge reason why. The 26-year-old receiver exploded for 1,162 yards and 15 touchdowns last year after tallying just 16 scores in his first three pro seasons.
Bowe remains the main receiving option for Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Cassel, while Jamal Charles will continue to keep defenses honest after having a breakout season of his own in 2010.
Team ESPN: Tony Romo, QB (Dallas Cowboys)
9 of 13Y! ADP: 35.3
Romo lost the majority of his 2010 season to a broken collarbone, but posted a career-high 69.5 percent completion before his injury. He'll return to plenty of offensive weapons, including a stable of talented running backs, two above-average wide receiver options in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, and proven tight end Jason Witten—and don't forget, the fantasy football season ends before the playoffs!
Team ESPN: Shonn Greene, RB (New York Jets)
10 of 13ESPN ADP: 56.9
Y! ADP: 40.5
Stop me if you've heard this before: Greene played well in the playoffs last year, and even though LaDainian Tomlinson is more proven, he's not getting any younger.
Okay, I would have said the exact same thing about Greene before his disappointing 2010 campaign (766 yards and two touchdowns), but remember this—he was a second-round pick last year, so drafting him in the sixth should be a little more palatable.
Plus 1: Jimmy Graham, TE (New Orleans Saints)
11 of 13ESPN ADP: 119.5
Y! ADP: 69
I love Saints TE Jimmy Graham this year. He's a better value on ESPN than on Yahoo!, but I think he's worth it on either site.
Graham only played one year of football as a graduate student at Miami (Fla.) before turning pro, and after playing sparingly for most of the season, he caught four TDs over the last three games of the regular season. He's listed at 6'6" or 6'7" and has good enough hands to be a major factor in the red zone with Jeremy Shockey in Carolina.
Team Yahoo!
12 of 13Assuming the fourth pick in a 10-team league where player selection follows ADP, here are the first eight picks of a sample Yahoo! team picked using the information provided (I'll leave the bench and the DEF/K up to your imagination):
Picks
No. 4: Jamaal Charles
No. 17: Steven Jackson
No. 24: Tom Brady
No. 37: Vincent Jackson
No. 44: Marques Colston
No. 57: Steve Smith
No. 64: Jimmy Graham
No. 77: Jonathan Stewart
No. 84: Knowshon Moreno
Lineup
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Jamal Charles, Steven Jackson
WR: Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston
RB/WR: Steve Smith/Jonathan Stewart/Knowshon Moreno
TE: Jimmy Graham
Team ESPN
13 of 13Assuming the fifth pick in a 10-team league where player selection follows ADP, here are the first eight picks of a sample ESPN team picked using the information provided (I'll leave the bench and the DEF/K up to your imagination):
Picks
No. 6: Ray Rice
No. 15: Michael Turner
No. 26: Larry Fitzgerald
No. 35: Dwayne Bowe
No. 46: Tony Romo
No. 55: Shonn Greene
No. 66: Sidney Rice
No. 75: Daniel Thomas
No. 86: Jimmy Graham
Lineup
QB: Tony Romo
RB: Ray Rice, Michael Turner
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Dwayne Bowe
RB/WR: Shonn Greene/Sidney Rice/Daniel Thomas
TE: Jimmy Graham
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