MLB Trades: San Diego Padres Must Trade for Offense to Become Respectable Again

Something is terribly wrong.

The San Diego Padres are third in runs allowed per game (3.74), third in ERA (3.26), fifth in ERA+ (110) and fourth in WHIP (1.274), yet find themselves securely ensconced in last place.

The Padres are an offensively challenged team, having scored the fewest runs in the league. They are last in home runs with 55 and probably won’t hit 100 this season.

Soon-to-be-traded Ryan Ludwick leads the team with 11 home runs.

No one else is in double figures.

It is a baseball axiom that winning teams are built on pitching.

The first-place Philadelphia Phillies, who have Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels, added Cliff Lee, but they realize that they are still in need of a little more hitting.

The defending-champion San Francisco Giants—the team that overcame the Padres' lead last season—have an offense that challenges that of the Padres for futility, but they added Carlos Beltran yesterday.

What is the point?

Poor offensive teams such as the Phillies, Giants, and even the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates win enough games to contend because their great pitching overcomes their lack of offense.

The Padres' problem is that their pitching, as good as it is, cannot overcome their terrible offense.

The Phillies and Giants offenses are just good enough to score the few runs needed to win.

The Padres offense is not.

The only Padres pitcher with an ERA above four is Matt Latos (5-10, 4.05). Tim Stauffer, the surprising Dustin Moseley, Aaron Harang, and Cliff Richard have pitched quite effectively most of the time. Only Richard has allowed more hits than innings pitched (99.2 IP and 104 hits).

The bullpen, headed by closer Heath Bell (29 saves) and setup man Mike Adams (311 ERA+), is one of the best in baseball.

A little more offense—not a lot, just a little—would make a world of difference. At the very least, it would get the Padres out of the cellar and make them pretenders for the NL wild-card spot next season.

It has been rumored that Bell, Adams, and Harang  might be gone in the next few days. The Padres must balance the young players they receive in trades between pitchers and hitters, with the emphasis on the hitters.

Trading Ryan Ludwick is a necessary move: It would be addition by subtraction.

He hit .211/.301/.330 after he was obtained from the St. Louis Cardinals last season and is doing just as poorly this year (.238/.302/.373). 

National League teams are averaging 4.10 runs a game this year, down from 4.33 in 2010.

The Giants averaged 4.30 runs a game in 2010, which was just about the league average. Their pitching allowed 3.60 runs a game, which was well below the league average.

This season, the Padres allow 3.74 runs. Acknowledging that scoring is off from 2010, that is still close to the 2010 Giants' 3.60. 

The 2011 Padres score a horrible 3.46 runs a game.

The 2010 Giants allowed 3.60 runs a game and scored 4.30.

On a simplistic statistical level, the 2010 Giants scored 0.70 runs more a game than they allowed.

The 2011 Padres allow 3.74 runs a game and score 3.46 runs a game; they allow 0.28 more runs a game than they score.

That is why the Padres are in last place.

They must get offensive help because their pitching is being wasted.

Finally, if the Padres trade Bell and/or Adams and/or Harang, the pitching will suffer greatly, which will expose the weak hitting even further. Instead of losing 2-1 or 3-2, the Padres will lose 6-1 or 8-2. 

Management is going to have a difficult time the next few seasons.