NFL Rumors: What the Miami Dolphins Can Expect from Kyle Orton in 2011

At this juncture in the NFL free agency carousel, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb and Vince Young are the only noteworthy quarterbacks still up for grabs.

But with the Eagles and Cardinals reportedly close to finalizing a deal for Kolb, Kyle Orton will soon become the only sure-fire, starting caliber quarterback available and therefore the hottest commodity on the NFL trade market.

According to a flood of reports from Wednesday, the Miami Dolphins are in hot pursuit of the 28-year-old quarterback.  

As each minutes passes, a deal seems more and more imminent, and both parties will soon likely try to expedite the process.

Training camps are about to kick into full gear, and the Dolphins need Orton on board as soon as possible. He must absorb an entirely new system consisting of foreign verbiage and schemes.  

Considering how desperate the Dolphins are for a quarterback, the deal should be done within the next day or two. And an Orton-Miami marriage should be a beautiful one.

Theoretically, anyway.

By acquiring Kyle Orton, the Dolphins are assuming that he can lead them to the playoffs. If they did not believe Orton was capable, then they would not bother parting with valuable draft picks (Or whatever else they decide to swap. Wouldn't be surprised to see them send a defensive end to Denver. Miami has a surplus and the Broncos need help up front. Makes too much sense).

But here's the caveat. Orton has never started an NFL Playoff game. So what can we actually expect from this guy?

Well, the Dolphins are actually taking a much more significant gamble than anybody seems to acknowledge. Sure, Orton has posted impressive numbers over the past two years in Denver, but how many of those 41 touchdowns came when the Broncos were trailing by wide margins late in games?

His 58.8 completion percentage was nearly three points lower than Chad Henne's 61.4 in 2010. And, let's not overlook this nugget: Over the past two seasons, Henne has a better record (13-14) as a starter than Orton (11-17). 

Obviously, the record factoid is not entirely valid—though it's not entirely invalid either. We can safely declare the 2010 Dolphins superior to the 2010 Broncos. But the 2009 teams? The discrepancy is much smaller. 

Ultimately, this trade looks an awful lot like the deals Miami has made for countless promising but eventually terrible quarterbacks in the past. Players like A.J. Feeley, Daunte Culpepper and Trent Green all looked like solid fixtures when the 'Fins dealt for them as well.

Because the quarterback market is so paper thin this summer, it's starting to feel like Orton is being vastly overrated. 

But let's exhale for a second and recognize the obvious. Kyle Orton is better than Chad Henne. Far better.

Stats aside, there is just no question. We've successfully exposed every negative facet about Orton, but don't forget that he does have a 30-27 career record as a starter.

During his three seasons with the Chicago Bears, Orton posted a 21-12 record despite throwing to some very substandard receiving corps. He has never played on an offense that even compares to the one he might soon captain in Miami.

He will have a stable rushing attack, a fortified offensive line and will be reunited with former teammate Brandon Marshall whom he tossed 10 touchdowns to in 2009.

Surprisingly, his pre-existing chemistry with Marshall is hardly being discussed. This is a huge bonus to a potential deal and could prove invaluable considering the limited time frame Orton will have to harmonize with his new batch of receivers. 

Moreover, Orton (at least from the clips I've seen on NFL Network) is a vocal leader, which contrasts ever so nicely from Chad Henne's stolid demeanor.

Mechanically, Orton has a laser arm backed by a relatively smooth throwing motion. He can zip the ball into small windows and launch it deep but still needs to shore up his consistency.

Still, he threw only 21 interceptions (significantly less than Henne's 33) during his Broncos tenure, which makes him an even more ideal fit for a team that succeeds when they control the game.  

Plus, Orton is only 28. There is a good chance he is just entering his prime, which might be the icing on the cake for the Dolphins.

Whether Miami is making this trade out of desperation or anticipation that Orton can be a franchise quarterback does not matter. Barring any shocking developments, he will be a Dolphin within the next 48 hours.  

It's impossible to gauge how Orton will fare in Miami given his odd NFL career, but one thing is for sure. If he fails, so will the Dolphins.