Jake Peavy: The Key to Who Wins the AL Central Division

Two years ago, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams acquired pitcher Jake Peavy from the San Diego Padres.  The White Sox were hoping to see results similar to those during Peavy's days in San Diego.

While Sox fans have seen flashes of the Jake Peavy of old, but he has left much to be desired.  In 2010, Peavy went 7-6 with a 4.63 ERA, getting injured right as he was turning the corner.  Now, in 2011, he is struggling.  Aside from his complete game, three-hit shutout of the Cleveland Indians in May, Peavy has underperformed.  He is 4-4 on the year with a 5.27 ERA.

Yesterday, Peavy struggled through six innings against the Detroit Tigers, giving up four earned runs on 10 hits.  He seemed to hit a wall around the fifth inning, which has been a growing trend.  Peavy has not gone more than six innings in a start since May 30th.  Furthermore, Peavy has not had a good pitching performance since June 25th when he threw four scoreless innings in relief.

Clearly, Peavy does not have the stamina he once did.  While that was not a problem with a six-man rotation, Edwin Jackson was dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays (and subsequently to the St. Louis Cardinals) today.  The White Sox added bullpen depth in Jason Frasor, but lost a good starting pitcher in Jackson.  Now Peavy is not getting an extra day off, and his stamina will be an even bigger question mark.

The White Sox are only 3.5 games back of Detroit in the AL Central race.  The White Sox need Jake Peavy to step up.  The Sox can't afford to send out Jake Peavy every fifth day and have him go, at most (but often less), six innings and give up four earned runs.  It is taxing on the bullpen.

Peavy or the White Sox need to figure this situation out fast.  Perhaps Kenny Williams will acquire another starter as a safety option for Jake Peavy.  This scenario seems unlikely.  

It is becoming more apparent that Jake Peavy needs to start lengthening his outings or giving up fewer runs.  Every game Peavy starts, the White Sox are required to score five or six runs to win the game.  Even if Adam Dunn and Alex Rios turn it around soon, it is unreasonable to ask a team to score half a dozen runs per start, regardless of who is on the mound.

With 59 games left in the regular season, Peavy will have approximately a dozen starts (if he remains healthy).  Based on his recent track record, the best the Sox can expect from him is six innings and four earned runs.  However, one can't doubt Peavy's talent and the possibility of him turning his season around.  

In a division race that looks like it will go down to the wire, Jake Peavy's remaining starts could determine which team wins the AL Central.  If Peavy turns the corner, the White Sox will be the favorites to win the division, but if he doesn't, all bets are off.