MLB Trade Rumors, Facts and Scenarios Before the 2011 Deadline

After enjoying a restful slumber from Major League Baseball during the three-day break that included the lowest-rated All-Star Game in the history of the sport, hardball fans can now focus on the second half of the 2011 season, and whether their favorite team will be viewed as a buyer or seller with the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline less than three weeks away.

However, the quandary remains as to which teams will stockpile talent for the home stretch towards the postseason versus the organizations that are headed into fire-sale mode. 

Each of the six divisions are still up for grabs, as are both the AL and NL wild-card berths. The Philadelphia Phillies, widely considered to be the preseason runaway favorites to win the National League pennant, currently sport the biggest divisional lead in baseball at just 3.5 games over the second-place Braves in the NL East. Every other current division leader is one series sweep away from squandering first place in their respective divisions.

While this exciting albeit unlikely scenario makes for hundreds of potential playoff matchups, it handcuffs many general managers who have been accustomed in years past to throwing in the proverbial towel come mid-to-late July, and dumping some of their most attractive veterans in exchange for prized prospects currently ascending the ranks of the minor leagues.

Since perennial cellar dwellers like the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians and Arizona Diamondbacks still have a shot at the postseason after playing some of their best baseball in years from April through mid-July, these teams can't trade their overpaid veterans for help on the farm like the case had been in years past.

Despite the sea change in Major League Baseball, trade rumors continue to swirl around some of the most unlikely candidates to be dealt before August. Much of this chatter can be reduced to heresy, but other discussions carry weight.

This slideshow will separate the speculation from sourced rumors, with a few possible self-generated scenarios sprinkled in by yours truly.

For MLB's so-called "haves," the period in baseball from the All-Star break through July 31 is a time rife with wishful thinking when playoff contenders can rent a much-needed bat or acquire a pitcher in a contract year to possibly launch them into the playoffs.

For the "have-nots," July is a time to unload expensive payroll and milk desperate teams for their top minor league talent. But given the increased parity across both the National and American Leagues, those lines between buyers and sellers are more blurred than ever.

Let's start with what we know, followed by said rumors surrounding some of the most talented players in the game, topped off with pure speculation as to other possible scenarios.  

What We Know

The Milwaukee Brewers made the first splash of the trading season by acquiring New York Mets reliever Francisco Rodriguez and $5 million for two minor leaguers to be named later. Rodriguez has a $17.5 million option for 2012 that would kick in if he finishes 55 games this season (he has 21 to go before the option vests—otherwise, the Mets are on the hook for the $3.5 million buyout option).

The Brewers already have a reliable (and much less expensive) closer in John Axford, and Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke recently stated that both Axford and Rodriguez will share both closer and setup duties. While this adds legitimate depth to the back of the Brewcrew's bullpen, it divvies up saves for both Rodriguez and Axford. Suffice it to say that fantasy owners of both Axford and K-Rod are not thrilled with the deal. 

The Mets didn't want to face the possibility of paying K-Rod a lofty $17.5 million in 2012, so they got what prospects they could for him before having to deal with Rodriguez's new agent, infamous power broker Scott Boras.

While Milwaukee makes for a surprising destination for Rodriguez, it should be noted that the Mets spoke with several teams, but the Brewers were willing to take on more of his salary than any other organization, which is why the deal was done so suddenly. 

Another recent albeit insignificant trade that went down on Tuesday was the Dodgers' acquisition of OF Juan Rivera from Toronto for cash considerations and/or a player to be named later. Rivera had been designated for assignment to clear roster space for young OFs Travis Snider and Eric Thames, so this was a low-risk deal for both sides.

One might infer that the insolvent Dodgers would prefer the financial incentives that came with taking the overpaid Rivera off the Blue Jays' books. He shouldn't serve as more than a situational outfielder who plays exclusively against lefties, although Rivera does have an extensive history in Southern California after playing with the Angels from 2005-2010. 

I Heard a Rumor...

Speaking of the Mets, the Amazins sit in third place in the NL East, their record one game above .500 with an outside chance at a Wild Card berth. But given some of their expiring contracts, their payroll is tied up with some of their pricier veterans, namely Carlos Beltran, who is finally healthy and productive after a pair of lost seasons in 2009 and 2010.

Although their fans would like to see the team stick together and make a run towards October, that scenario seems unlikely, even though the Mets no longer have to worry about paying Francisco Rodriguez over $17 MM in 2012. Hence, Beltran seems all but certain to switch uniforms before the calendar flips to August. The Giants, who  look like the early front-runners to acquire him, could certainly use another bat in their light-hitting outfield. The Tigers have also been mentioned as a suitor, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Foxsports.com. While Beltran is the most talked-about and most talented hitter likely to be dealt, he is merely the tip of the iceberg in trade discussions.

One last footnote on the Brewers is that the team is also looking to improve the left side of their infield, as SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 3B Casey McGehee have provided a stark contrast in the power department to Monday's Home Run Derby contestants, 2B Rickie Weeks and 1B Prince Fielder. The Dodgers' Jamey Carroll has been floated as a possible future Brewer SS, as has Royals 3B Wilson Betemit.  

ESPN.com has speculated that other notable candidates around the majors who could be dealt in the coming weeks include Orioles SP Jeremy Guthrie, DH Vladimir Guerrero, 1B Derrek Lee, and 3B Mark Reynolds, Astros SP Brett Myers and All-Star OF Hunter Pence, Padres RP Chad Qualls, slugging OF Ryan Ludwick, RP Mike Adams, and All-Star closer Heath Bell, Royals OF Jeff Francoeur and SP Jeff Francis, A's OFs Josh Willingham and fleet-footed Coco Crisp, Dodger SPs Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly, Cubs 1B Carlos Pena and OF Kosuke Fukudome, Mariners SP Erik Bedard, and Nationals SP Jason Marquis. 

Scenarios That Would Make Sense

Future Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez is taking at-bats away from talented youngster Wilson Ramos. The Nationals are a .500 team, but factoring injuries to key players like 3B Ryan Zimmerman, 1B Adam LaRoche and SP Stephen Strasburg, they may soon pack it in and become sellers in a tough division.

Rodriguez is a shadow of his former self offensively, but he provides a steady presence behind the plate, and carries a detailed knowledge of MLB personnel with 20-plus-years in the major leagues. Although rumors that he may replace the injured Buster Posey in San Francisco have long since been shot down by Giants' front office personnel, Pudge's $3 million salary may indicate that he could get dealt after the non-waiver deadline to a contending team that suffered an injury to their backstop.

The Padres may very well have a 25-man roster comprised entirely of minor leaguers by August. This means 1B/OF Brad Hawpe, slated to be a free agent after the season, could get dealt to a team looking for some pop off the bench, or possibly to an AL team as a situational DH. Although the former Rockie has been shelved on the disabled list with elbow and finger injuries, he should be activated before too long, and dealt immediately once he's healthy.

While we're still in San Diego, the Friars would be well served to sell high on SP Aaron Harang after the photogenic hurler tossed six no-hit innings against the Dodgers last week. He makes $3.5 million this year with a mutual option for 2012. Harang, when healthy, can be a innings-eating horse, and is still in his prime at 33 years old. Don't be surprised to see Harang become a coveted commodity in the coming weeks. 

Moving up the California coast, the last-place Dodgers are obvious sellers despite the curious acquisition of Rivera. Given embattled owner Frank McCourt's willingness to slash payroll, recently healthy SS Rafael Furcal, who has a $12 million club option for 2012 with a $3.5 million buyout, seems like a choice candidate to get dealt by the end of July. The Brewers would make a fine landing spot for Furcal since they're looking to upgrade at short.

Furthermore, the Dodgers want to get rookie Dee Gordon more playing time, and the 33-year-old Furcal is essentially hindering Gordon's development at this stage.

Mariners DH Jack Cust is making an affordable $2.5 million this year, but has been struggling to get regular at-bats what with the youth movement brewing in Seattle. Although he is a defensive liability in the outfield, he could serve as a pinch-hitter on a National League team or stick around in the AL as a part-time DH. At 32, Cust shouldn't be at the end of his career just yet, although his .682 OPS is an indication of the holes in his swing. Perhaps a change of scenery from the spacious confines of Safeco Field might do his bat some good.

Kansas City SP Bruce Chen is enjoying a renaissance season, and is earning just $2 million before he becomes a free agent in 2012. The last-place Royals would be well served to sell high on the 34-year-old for prospects before he reverts to the pumpkin he's been for most of his career.