MLB 2011 Home Run Derby: Ranking All Participants' Chances of Winning It

Perhaps the biggest festivity of All-Star weekend isn't the game itself, but the always entertaining home run derby.

The concept is really simply eight of the biggest sluggers in baseball (usually) take the center stage and slug as many balls out of the park as they can before they get 10 outs and the top half moves on to the next round.  Then so on and so forth till everybody but one has been eliminated.

Obviously some players are built for the home run derby better than others.  If you're built like a lanky pitcher, you're not going to get anywhere. But if you're 6'5", 250 pounds, you have an advantage.

But who really has the upper hand going into this one?  Here are my rankings.

8. Rickie Weeks, 17 Home Runs

Standing in at a measly 5'10", Rickie Weeks is the only player in this derby under six feet.  True, size doesn't matter, unless you're trying to hit a ball 500 feet. 

Not many people are giving Rickie Weeks a chance, and it's hard to disagree with them.  He appears to be the Justin Upton of this Home Run Derby.  Knock a couple boppers outta the park and get the crowd going for the big boys. 

7. Robinson Cano, 15 Home Runs

Like Weeks, Robinson Cano is a filler more than anything else.  

Cano is known for spraying line drives around the yard rather than actually knocking the ball out of the yard.  He might be respectable, but there's no way he is going to overtake all these next people for the crown.  

6. Matt Holliday, 14 Home Runs

At 6'4" and 235 pounds, on paper you would think Matt Holliday would be a major factor in this derby, but it is hard to put him higher when he has fewer home runs than anybody on this list. 

He's my sleeper, but like Robinson Cano, I can't see him overtaking the likes of David Ortiz and Prince Fielder. 

5: Matt Kemp, 22 Home Runs

Matt Kemp is a stud in his prime right now. He is on pace for about 40 home runs and 120 RBI.  He is another dark horse in this derby.

Really, it was a toss-up between Kemp and the next person, but lefties do tend to have more success in the derby.

4: Adrian Gonzalez, 17 Home Runs

Adrian Gonzalez is another All-Star having an All-Star year.  You could bet on him winning the derby, and nobody would think twice about it.

Sure, his 17 home runs may be average compared to the rest of the lineup, but "A-Gon" is capable of putting on a show.  Him at No. 4 just shows how much depth is in this Derby. 

3: Jose Bautista, 31 Home Runs

Jose Bautista at No. 3 sounds bad, but these next two names are, like I said, built to drive the ball 500 feet. 

That's not saying Jose Bautista can't, at all.  He is on pace to hit more home runs than he did in 2010 (54).  A lot of people said that Jose Bautista can't keep up his offensive onslaught, but he has, and that makes him a favorite in this Derby as well. 

2: Prince Fielder, 22 Home Runs

Prince Fielder has arguably the perfect build for a home run derby.  He may only be six feet, but those 275 pounds of strength can pack a punch.  That along with his natural upper cut swing makes him the prototypical home run derby participant.

He has already won it once, so there is no reason to say he won't win it again, although I'm sure this next man will have a say in it...

1. David Ortiz, 19 Home Runs

As you can see from the photo, David Ortiz is fired up and does not want to give up that Home Run Derby crown to anyone else.

Ortiz is the man. While his skills to hit a breaking ball have diminished, his skills to hit a straight-up fastball have not.  He has hit a ball completely out of the ballpark in Japan. 

You might be able to make a case why anybody else on this list will win, but you CAN NOT make a case on why David Ortiz won't win.