Fantasy Football Possible Impact: Plaxico Burress to the Houston Texans

While scouring the web for interesting rumors, news and quotes that would help me compile my first official 2011 fantasy football rankings of the summer, I came across the following quote:

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“When you say Houston, all I can say is ‘Wow.’ “That’s all I can say, because I give respect where respect is due. And I believe Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver in football. … The way he’s playing down in Houston, they’re getting everything going in the right direction. Matt Schaub has really taken off as an elite quarterback. I think Arian Foster is one of the top-five running backs in this league.

— Burress said about the Texans, per Jane McManus

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I have been putting off a Plaxico Burress fantasy football investigation for some time, but this quote got my wheels cranking. 

What fantasy football value would Burress have if he signed a deal with the Texans? And, would it make them a playoff contender?

I will answer the second question—first.  

Yes.  I believe that with a healthy, motivated Burress in the fold the Texans become one of the more potent offenses in the NFL.  Burress points out in his quote—and I agree with him—that the Texans that Houston already has the best wideout in the league with Andre Johnson.  

Adding a dynamic threat opposite of him will challenge defenses, and give the Texans additional opportunities on offense.  

While more fire power won’t solve Houston’s woes on the defensive side of the ball, we have seen plenty of teams that spackle together a defense and outgun enough teams to go to the playoffs.

And now for the more challenging—and to me—more interesting question: What fantasy football ranking would Plaxico Burress demand if he were to play opposite of Andre Johnson?  What would the 2011 version of Batman and Robin offer fantasy football owners?

I’ll tell the end of the story, first: Plaxico would have considerable fantasy value for the Texans. He would be a solid WR2 and excellent WR3 in all leagues.

If you dive into the numbers—and put aside the obvious attention and double teams that Andre Johnson will generate and the fact that Houston’s rushing attack is strong—you see a pretty compelling WR2/WR3 story unfold.  

Let’s throw out his two shortened seasons (his rookie season in 2000 and his last season in 2008) and call those anomalies.

SEASON	TEAM	REC	YDS	TD	FP	FP/OPP
2000	Steelers	22	273	0	49.3	2.24
2001	Steelers	66	1008	6	202.8	3.07
2002	Steelers	78	1325	7	252.5	3.24
2003	Steelers	60	860	4	170	2.83
2004	Steelers	35	698	5	134.8	3.85
2005	Giants	76	1214	7	239.4	3.15
2006	Giants	63	988	10	221.8	3.52
2007	Giants	70	1025	12	244.5	3.49
2008	Giants	35	454	4	104.4	2.98

• Five of the seven seasons are worthy of a fantasy football WR1.
• He posted a FP/OPP score of 3.0+ in all but one of those seven seasons
• He posted seven-plus TDs in four of those seasons
• He posted 200-plus fantasy football points (PPR) in five of those seasons

And because I’m such a “data guy,” I don’t want you to take my word for it when I tell you that FP/OPP values of greater than 2.75 would be worth of elite mention in most cases.  

Here is a list of the top ten WRs for the 2010 season based on receiving yardage:

PLAYER	TEAM	REC	TAR	YDS	TD	FP	FP/OPP	REC/TAR
Roddy White	ATL	115	179	1389	10	313.9	2.73	64%
Brandon Lloyd	DEN	77	153	1448	11	287.8	3.74	50%
Reggie Wayne	IND	111	173	1355	6	282.5	2.55	64%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	72	132	1162	15	278.2	3.86	55%
Greg Jennings	GB	76	125	1265	12	274.5	3.61	61%
Calvin Johnson	DET	77	137	1120	12	261	3.39	56%
Andre Johnson	HOU	86	138	1216	8	255.6	2.97	62%
Mike Wallace	PIT	60	100	1257	10	245.7	4.10	60%
Santana Moss	WSH	93	146	1115	6	240.5	2.59	64%
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	90	174	1137	6	239.7	2.66	52%

My fantasy football rankings prediction: If Plaxico Burress signs with the Texans, then he will see about 90 targets, and should be good for hauling in 58.8 percent of those passes (based on his past history) which would amount to 52 receptions.

 Assuming a healthy season, we can boil the ocean down to a likely fantasy football stat line:

Plaxico Burress as a Texan:  52 receptions, 750-plus yards and four to six TDs—or about 150 FP in most PPR formats .  That would make him a solid WR2 and a strong WR3.

For additional fantasy football advice, visit my blog at Gridiron-Guru.