Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011 and 2006: Comparing the Two Teams

Through mid-2011, the Pittsburgh Pirates have officially had a winning HALF season for the first time since 2006.

In the earlier year, they had a 37-35 record since the All-Star break. That doesn't translate into a a full half season, but the Bucs also went 12-12 in April 2007 for a 49-47 showing over 96 games. Add the 1-3 tally on either side, and Pittsburgh went 50-50 over a stretch of 100 games—their best record over such a stretch since the 1990s.

Hopefully, the 2011 team, which has compiled a 47-43 tally over 90 games, will have more than 50 wins by Game 100.

Still, the two-year winning intervals, oases in an otherwise barren stretch spanning nearly two decades, invite comparison of the teams Pittsburgh had in 2006 versus the one today. It is noteworthy that the second half 2006 team was a decidedly better one after getting rid of unproductive overpaid has-beens like Jeremy Burnitz, Joe Randa, Sean Casey and Craig Wilson, focusing on younger players.

With two exceptions, the 2006 team has been traded away for a batch of even younger recent prospects. But a position-by-position comparison will show why the 2011 does appear to be better.

Outfielder: Andy McCutchen vs. Jason Bay

Though they played different outfield positions, both were franchise players in their respective times. But the comparison is all in favor of the 2011 version of Andy McCutchen.

That's mainly because McCutchen is a better fielder. And of course, he plays the more critical (center) outfield position.

McCutchen, like Bay in 2006, can also hit for average and hit for power. Both of them went to the All-Star Game in their respective years. But McCutchen is the better all-around player. This was particularly true after Bay injured his knee in 2007 and didn't regain even his previous standards as a fielder.

McCutchen has been worth five wins over a replacement player in just the first half of 2011. That was essentially Bay's value to the Pirates for ALL of 2006. So far in 2011, McCutchen has basically put the team above .500 ALL BY HIMSELF. The same might have been said of Bay in the second half of 2006, given the closeness of the Pirates' victory margin the earlier year.

Despite his problems, the Pirates probably should have offered Bay another contract extension (he had signed one through 2009) at perhaps $10 million a year, given his protestations that he wanted to stay in Pittsburgh, because of the better quality of life and lower cost of living. If he turned them down, THEN the Bucs could have traded him in 2009, rather than 2008.

The reason for this is not Bay, but McCutchen. The Pirates would dearly love to lock him in for the long term, but he is demurring. One reason was the callous trade of Bay, for prospects, and also the trades of McCutchen's friend, Nyjer Morgan (and Sean Burnett) to the Washington Nationals.

Lastings Milledge wasn't worth Morgan, and even if Joel Hanrahan was an upgrade over Burnett, the demoralizing impact on McCutchen might have cancelled any gains on the trades. In any event, one reason for trying to keep some now-marginal players (Bay, Morgan) is to encourage the better ones to also stay.

Advantage: 2011

Outfielder: Jose Tabata vs. Xavier Nady

Even though they play opposite corner outfield positions, Jose Tabata is being compared against Xavier Nady, who was traded for him.

Tabata is a moderately above-average league player. He doesn't have much power, but his batting average is above average. He also walks, runs and fields reasonably well.

In this regard, Tabata is better than Nady in most years except 2008. In 2006, Nady was a mediocre player who had "potential" that resulted in an apparent breakout in 2008. The Pirates had originally hoped to trade Nady and reliever Damasco Marte for Tabata alone, but Nady's "breakout" netted them three pitchers—Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf and Dan McCutchen as well. Nady then reverted to mediocrity, and Marte was a "bust" for the Yankees.

Nady for Tabata would have been a fine  deal "straight up." Nady for Tabata and say Karstens (attributing the other two pitchers to Marte) was a great trade. As Joel Reuter, a fellow B/R sportswriter pointed out, this one deal may have lifted the Pirates above .500 by itself.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/767080-mlb-trade-deadline-history-a-look-back-at-pirates-yankees-2008-deadline-deal

Advantage: 2011

Oufielder: Platoon vs. Question Marks

In 2011, we have a platoon of Matt Diaz, Garrett Jones and prospectively Alex Presley for the remaining outfield position. In 2006, there were a lot of question marks in center field. Such as Chris Duffy. And the pre-emergent Nate McLouth.

Diaz is the least attractive of the platoon options.But he is basically a placeholder for Garrett Jones or possibly an emerging Alex Presley. As such, he represents a floor in the Pirate outfield. If one or both of the others reach their potential, the combination of McCutchen, Tabata and the third one might recreate the strongest outfield offense in the National League that the Pirates enjoyed briefly with Bay, McLouth and Nady early in 2008.

The debate between Duffy and McLouth for center field in the earlier year was about which had the higher ceiling. The answer turned out to be McLouth but only for a couple years.

The debate between the three mentioned above is which should play right field, which should find another position (e.g. first base) and which should go.

Advantage: 2011

First Base: Lyle Overbay vs. Ryan Doumit

The Pirates have put a lot of question marks at first base. In 2006, it was a combination of Sean Casey and Ryan Doumit, then (and now), a utility man. In 2011, it is Lyle Overbay, replaced at times, by Garrett Jones.

For most of the interim, it was the rather forgettable Adam LaRoche at the corner infield position.

The 2006 duo were replacement players at the plate. The same can be said for Overbay in 2011. With the important difference that he is also a liability in the field.

Advantage: 2006

Second Base: Neil Walker vs. Freddy Sanchez

Neil Walker is a solid, basically league-average second baseman. So, nowadays, Freddy Sanchez is with his new team, the San Francisco Giants. Walker is also in his pre-arbitration years, meaning that he is far cheaper, as well as having more room to grow.

But neither of them are the Freddy Sanchez of 2006.

THAT second baseman won the National League batting championship. Although he lacked power, his value to the Pirates in 2006 was a close second to Jason Bay. This value was recognized by the fact that Sanchez (and not Bay) was the Pirates' All-Star in 2007, when Bay was hobbled by an injury.

Advantage: 2006

Shortstop: Ronny Cedeno vs. Jack Wilson

Ronny Cedeno, who has basically been a league-average shortstop during his tenure with the Pirates, is a younger and more consistent version of the man who was traded for him (and Jeff Clement), Jack Wilson. Still in his arbitration years, he makes less than Wilson.

Wilson has higher highs in his peak years and lower lows in his trough years. Overall, he is no better than Cedeno but offering a wider range of possible outcomes. His 2006 contribution was worse than Cedeno's (so far) in 2011.

I opposed trading Wilson for Cedeno because of "citizenship" and role model issues in favor of the former. But from a strictly baseball point of view, it was a good trade, even "straight up." (Clement turned out to be worthless.)

Advantage: 2011

Third Base: Brandon Wood vs. Jose Bautista

No, I'm not putting Pedro Alvarez here. At least not yet. But he appears later in the show.

Alvarez was sent back down to AAA, when his batting average approached the Mendoza line (.200). Wood, who is basically a replacement player, is just above Alvarez in this regard.

Bautista's "low" batting average in 2006 was actually higher than either of these two. Overlooked is the fact that he hit 16 home runs playing two-thirds of a season—a number that extrapolates to over 20 for a full season.

We now know that Bautista will hit more than "over 20" this season. The question is over or under 60. He has improved markedly in other ways, hitting for average and as a fielder. He, Paul Maholm, and Ronnie Paulino are the three Pirates that are probably better today than in 2006.

More to the point, the Pirates aren't sure who their 2011 third baseman will be eventually. It could be Wood, it could be Alvarez, it could be a third party that they trade for.

Advantage: 2006

Catcher: Chris Snyder vs. Ronnie Paulino

Ronnie Paulino had the makings of a breakout player in 2006. He is showing signs of a second breakout, as a New York Met in 2011.

Between those years, he has been barely above a replacement player for the Pirates, Phillies and Marlins, which is why he has been on four teams in five years.

Chris Snyder is a decent hitter for a catcher. Formerly a good defensive catcher, he hasn't shown much of that recently. Neither did Paulino, but Snyder's lack of defense gives Paulino a bit of an edge.

Advantage: 2006

Floater: Pedro Alvarez vs. Ryan Doumit

Pedro Alvarez is regarded as a talented player in 2011. So, too, was Ryan Doumit in the 2006-2008 time period. But there has been a question of where they will play.

Alvarez is believed to possess a lot of what passes for "power" on the Pirates' team. If Pittsburgh were in the American League, he might be a designated hitter, Adam Lind-style. As it were, with the Bucs in the National League, he has to play some position.

But the "hot corner" might not be right for him, since he is weak defensively. A transfer to first base might be in order, which would fill a major (hitting) hole there. In any event, he will have to spend some time in AAA regaining his hitting ability.

Doumit was the other way. His offensive ability wasn't appreciated until 2008 (and later proved ephemeral). What made him special was his ability to play more than one position "up the middle," in both center field and catcher, as well as first base.

Advantage: 2006

Starter: Kevin Correia vs. Zach Duke

Kevin Correia, whose career somewhat parallels that of Zach Duke (except that Correia is right-handed) was supposed to be the "new, improved" version of Duke. In this regard, Correia has so far delivered.

Forget, for a moment, about Duke's disastrous 2010 performance. In 2009 and the second half of 2008, Duke pitched to a four-ish ERA. Not counting his spectacular (and short-lived) start in 2005, that was basically Duke's career best level, one that Correia is meeting. That's decidedly better than the "fourth starter," five-ish ERA that Duke delivered in 2007 and 2010, that people also feared for Correia.

Correia has produced  a solid, "good enough" level of pitching that isn't really "first starter"-worthy. But he also adds what passes for a "veteran" presence on the team. This is reflected in the fact that he has done best on the road, an area of traditional Pirate weakness. He pitches less well in PNC Park, which may not be "home" to this San Diego transplant.

Starter: Paul Maholm vs. Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm is the only Pirate left from the 2006 team apart from Ryan Doumit. And the only one playing the same position. As such, he is the only other player that can be compared to his earlier self.

Maholm was the Pirates' worst member of the everyday rotation in 2006, producing a result somewhere between replacement level and league average. He improved steadily in 2007 and 2008, thereby outlasting more obviously talented hurlers like Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny. By late 2008, he was clearly above league average.

Maholm peaked in 2009, with 2008 being a close second. He regressed in 2010, but this year, is on track for a performance somewhere in the 2008-2009 range.

Maholm is now the second starter for the Pirates. More to the point, he is a pitcher who could well be the second starter on some other team.

Advantage: 2011

Starter: Charlie Morton vs. Ian Snell

I am putting Morton in a comparison with Ian Snell, because both have problems that are more mental than physical. 

Morton is beginning to come into his own as a pitcher in 2011, after having struggled in 2010, and to a lesser extent, in 2009. In this regard, he more resembles Snell in 2007 than in 2006.

Snell improved steadily in 2006 but became a front of rotation hurler only in 2007. Unfortunately, he regressed in 2008, perhaps due to lack of confidence and the difficulty of living up to his first starter role.

Morton is believed to have front of rotation potential, if he can get past his former difficulties, which recur from time to time in the present. Ironically, his past struggles may have bought him extra time to develop, so that when he does get to the head of the line, he won't regress.

Advantage: 2011

Starter: James McDonald vs. Tom Gorzelanny

Both of these starters are sometime relievers, whose durability has been called into question.

At their best, they've been solid performers. McDonald started off strongly in the second half of 2010, then regressed moderately in 2011. Hopefully, this will be the extent of his slide, and we won't see a Gorzelanny-like collapse in 2012.

Gorzelanny peaked in late 2006 and early 2007, then collapsed in 2008, which is to say that his personal fortunes mirrored those of his team. He returned to his earlier, upper middle of rotation form, after being traded.

Essentially, McDonald pulled back sooner in his career but not as deeply (so far) and will hopefully come back to or past his earlier high.

Advantage: 2006

Starter: Jeff Karstens vs. Ryan Vogelsong

One of the great strengths of the Pirates' rotation in 2011, and of the team generally, is that the fact that our fifth starter, Jeff Karstens, is so in name only. He actually has the lowest ERA of the team starters.

His one weakness is that he pitches fewer innings and pitches per game than other starters, because he is less durable. That was one factor in his fifth starter role. The other was his formerly high ERA.

In 2006, the Pirates had a bunch of genuine fifth starters, including Kip Wells and Ryan Vogelsong. Not to mention Ollie Perez who was traded to the Mets in disgust for Xavier Nady in an exchange of "promising" mediocrities.

Vogelsong spent several years in Japan and has been pitching amazingly, even better than Karstens for the San Francisco Giants in 2011. But the comparison between Karstens in 2011 and the 2006 Vogelsong is all in favor of the former.

Advantage: 2011

Summing Up

The advantage is mostly with the 2011 team, especially Andrew McCutchen.

In general, the outfield is better than in 2006, and with some additional contribution from e.g. Alex Presley, could end up rivaling the 2008 trio of Bay, McLouth and Nady. The 2006 team did have an advantage in the infield, with future All-Stars Freddy Sanchez and Jose Bautista wearing Pirate uniforms.

The difference in 2011 has come from pitching: Correia is better than Duke, Maholm today much better than his earlier self and Karstens far better than any of the fifth starters. There are near "pushes" in the matchups between Morton and Snell, Gorzelanny with McDonald.

Nevertheless, the late 2006-early 2007 team played respectable ball. A 2011 team that beat that is a strong team indeed, at least for the Pirates.