Albert Pujols: How the Hairline Fracture Will Affect the MLB Free-Agent Market

Merry Christmas, Cardinals fans.

Albert Pujols returned to the St. Louis team the day after he was eligible to come off the disabled list, which seems on the surface to be a medical miracle but is likely more attributable to the lack of a serious break to his left arm.

Nevertheless, the injury will have an impact on not only his next paycheck but also the entire free-agent market as a whole come this winter.

It's the timing of the injury that will cause some trepidation among general managers who will have to decide if he is not only worth $30 million a year but also if they can take the gamble by signing the man to a 10-year deal—numbers his agent has hinted he will seek when his client tests the free-agent waters at season’s end.

The 31-year-old is having his worst season, in his walk year, and any injury to the wrists of a power hitter in his 30s throws up a big red flag.

The player's union has always put pressure on each year’s top free agent to raise the bar, as far as yearly salary and contract duration. Pujols, not Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder, is viewed as the game’s best player with the kind of production that could make him the best of all time.

The last notable big-name slugger to suffer a wrist injury was Boston’s David Ortiz, who in June of 2008 tore a tendon in his wrist after fouling off a pitch.

Since then, Big Papi has had to listen to many who questioned whether his best years were behind him. He was 33 at the time of the injury.

Ortiz scuffled out of the gate in both 2009 and 2010, and Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein had to be looking at when Big Papi’s contract ended.

It does at the end of this season, a year in which he is earning $12.5 million in the final year of a five-year contract.

Despite having a rebound season in 2011 (his walk year), some think either Ortiz will have to accept less money, or he’ll have to play elsewhere, or both.

Two other famous Red Sox stars have had their production slowed by wrist injuries.

Carl Yastrzemski hit 40 homers each during the 1969 and 1970 seasons. Then he suffered a wrist injury in 1971 at the age of 31, which immediately robbed him of his power.

From July 17 to the end of the season, he hit two home runs and none in the last two months. He finished with 15 that year (in 508 at-bats) and in the 12 seasons after that, hit more than 20 only three times.

Nomar Garciaparra hurt his wrist in September 1999 after he was hit by a pitched ball, the after effects of which were not dealt with until over a year later. He led the American League with a .372 average in 2000 with 51 doubles and 21 homers but required surgery after the season.

In his first four full seasons in the big leagues prior to the 2001 surgery, Garciaparra banged 174 doubles and 113 homers. After he turned 30, things started going downhill for him.

From 2004-09 (six seasons), he hit 98 doubles and 56 homers, bouncing between the Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers and A's before retiring at the age of 36.

Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, will stick to his guns and seek a 10-year deal worth $300 million. He should. That is part of the negotiation process.

But unless Phat Albert has a monstrous second half, Lozano may well advise his client that the realistic market for him will be about six years and $150 million.

That will have a profound impact on the market of big-money stars for years to come, given that Pujols may defy the injury’s history and continue on his record-setting path.

He hit more homers (408) over his first 10 big-league seasons than any other player, and he ranked fifth in RBI (1230) over the same period, behind only the likes of Lou Gehrig, Al Simmons, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams.

Every free-agent slugger to hit the market in the next five years will be compared to Pujols and to whatever his next contract includes, in years and total dollars.

The analysis is the same in stock-market trending, with a shift in direction from bullish to bearish. And the players’ association cannot be happy about that.

If Pujols' salary caps off at, say, $25 million per year, and while Alex Rodriguez's paycheck decreases incrementally—from $31 million this year to $20 million by 2017—as he approaches 40, baseball’s next generation of power hitters could see an earnings ceiling being formed now.