2011 MLB All-Star Game Voting: The Odds of Every Final Vote Player Winning

Alex CarsonCorrespondent IIIJuly 5, 2011

2011 MLB All-Star Game Voting: The Odds of Every Final Vote Player Winning

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    Since 2002, baseball has had a final vote for the All-Star game in an attempt to include a potential snub or other deserving player that may have been blocked by a player at his position having a huge season.

    In those nine previous votes, on the American League side, it's generally meant yet another Boston or New York player being added in.

    Only four times has that not been the case, and only three times has the winner been outside the AL East. Never has the winner been from the AL West. Only six of the 45 nominees have been from the West.

    I did notice one interesting thing. In the AL, the winners from each vote combined for only two previous All-Star appearances before being booted in.

    In the NL, that number is six but mostly due do Nomar Garciaparra's five previous selections before winning the final vote in 2006.

    Does this mean we can draw conclusions based on geographical location of the nominee? Cry "East Coast bias?"

    I don't know. The sample is small, and the winning player has seemingly been a deserving recipient.

    Perhaps fans do seem more interested in giving that final spot to a deserving young snub, regardless of their popularity contest voting habits on the main ballot.

    I have devised a highly complicated mathematical equation to weigh each candidate's chances at winning the final vote. Here's a look at each.

AL: Paul Konerko

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    Seasons Played: 14.5
    All-Star Games: Four 
    Distance to New York: 790mi
    Score: 69.6

    Each player starts with 100 points. For each year played, one point is removed. For each prior All-Star appearance, two points are removed. For each 100 miles from New York City, one point is removed.

    Konerko doesn't have a great score thanks to high numbers in all three categories, and I bet he busts my silly system by winning the final vote.

    Why? Twenty-one homers and 62 RBI.

    He's having a great season late in his career and absolutely deserves to go.

AL: Victor Martinez

2 of 10

    Seasons Played: 8.5
    All-Star Games: Four 
    Distance to New York: 981mi
    Score: 73.7

    Martinez used to play for the Red Sox, so that might help a little. Then again, he doesn't now so maybe it'll hurt a little.

    He's having a nice season in the Motor City, but the six home runs are likely too few for an offensive starved baseball fan base.

AL: Alex Gordon

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    Seasons Played: 3.5
    All-Star Games: Zero 
    Distance to New York: 1191mi
    Score: 86.3

    Gordon rings in with a big score despite being half a country away from the big apple. His relative youth and lack of All-Star game experience helps big.

    I'm counting on him to make me look like a genius with this system, but don't count on it.

    His average is just below that magical .300 mark that will make most fans' tunnel vision keep him out of their sights.

AL: Ben Zobrist

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    Seasons Played: 4.5
    All-Star Games: One 
    Distance to New York: 1121mi
    Score: 83.3

    Zobrist plays for the Tampa Bay Rays, which are technically an East Coast team, but they're still quite a ways from the epicenter of baseball as far as Yankees and Red Sox fans are concerned.

    He's having a fine season, but those of Konerko and Martinez trump his enough that I don't him getting much of the vote.

AL: Adam Jones

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    Seasons Played: Five 
    All-Star Games: One 
    Distance to New York: 187mi
    Score: 88.8

    If my system is right, Jones will win the final vote in the AL. He does have the combination of youth, limited ASG experience and the Orioles only play a short jaunt from Gotham.

    He's an exciting and likable player. Come on, Adam. Make me look smarter than I am.

NL: Shane Victorino

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    Seasons Played: Six 
    All-Star Games: One 
    Distance to New York: 95mi
    Score: 91

    Victorino has nine homers, 34 RBI as part of his .303 average. Not only are those decent numbers but he scores really high on the Carson-Random-Wonkiness scale.

    This might be my chance to cherry pick a result in future years that my system isn't so silly.

NL: Andre Ethier

7 of 10

    Seasons Played: 5.5
    All-Star Games: One 
    Distance to New York: 2790mi
    Score: 64.6

    Ethier has an awful score. Being so far from the East Coast and having less dingers than other options, he's probably going to be fishing over the break.

    Although, he could be handling bounced checks from Frank McCourt.

NL: Mike Morse

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    Seasons Played: Four 
    All-Star Games: Zero 
    Distance to New York: 225mi
    Score: 93.75

    Morse leads all candidates in homers and RBI. His average is just a notch below .300, and he's having a breakout season.

    He's not really what you'd call young, but he still scores extremely high. I think Shane Victorino will squeak it out due to star power, but Morse has more than earned it.

NL: Todd Helton

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    Seasons Played: 13.5
    All-Star Games: Five 
    Distance to New York: 1780mi
    Score: 58.7

    Helton rings in with the worst score of anyone on the ballot. Even though he's played so many of his games in Colorado, he's been a fairly underrated player in my eyes.

    That should continue as the biased voters skip over Helton in the midst of another solid season.

NL: Ian Kennedy

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    Seasons Played: 3.5
    All-Star Games: Zero 
    Distance to New York: 2414mi
    Score: 72.4

    Three pitchers have won the final vote before, with two coming from the NL. So while the odds are stacked against Kennedy a bit, it's not improbable that he wins.

    Perhaps some Yankee fans will pitch in votes wishing he still played for their team.