After watching JaMarcus Russell play so poorly, and Darren McFadden not even play this weekend, in the Raiders' dismal loss to the Ravens, I started to wonder how likely it is that an NFL first-round pick will fulfill his potential or be a bust.
To find this out, I went searching for information that would help me understand what percentage of first-round picks do succeed in the NFL.
I ended up finding an article that showed where every first-round pick's, from the '95 draft up until the 2004 draft, career was at by the 2005 offseason.
I decided to only look at the '95, '96, '97, and '98 NFL first rounds, because in order to truly evaluate a draft pick’s career, you have to wait at least six to nine years after they were drafted to be fairly judge them.
After looking at these four drafts, I found that 54 out of the 122 (44 percent) first-round draft picks were out of the league by the beginning of the 2005 season. (One out of five Qbs, nine out of 14 RBs, nine out of 15 WRs, eight out of 17 tackles, one out of five guards, one out of three TEs, 10 out of 20 DEs, two out of four DTs, seven out of 15 DBs, five out of 13 LBs, and one out of five safeties).
I also found out that 60 out of the 122 draft picks (49 percent) were starters in the NFL by the 2005 season and 47 of them (39 percent) were Pro Bowlers at least once in their career.
What surprised me the most was that only eight players out of 122 (seven percent) were backup players on NFL teams by 2005, with only one coming from the '98 first round.
I started to wonder if the NFL’s first-round draft is just a miss-or-hit round full of stars and busts. I thought about what could be the reason for this and came up with some possible answers:
30 comments Last one added 3 months ago — Leave a Comment
Buddy Smith 8 months ago
Hey Ari,
This is a nice write up of a very good topic. I liked the data that you used and your conclusions are sound.
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Ari Horing 8 months ago
Thanks a lot!
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Anthony Elias 8 months ago
I agree with you. Although the media if anything will increase their exposure as "stars", the salaries can and should be lowered.
But hey, this article could easily be put right up against an article describing the great early draft picks, etc.
Great Job!
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GoBears 2008 8 months ago
Nice article and links. I agree completely. I wish this topic wasn't relevant to Bay Area teams, though.
I think Leinart is more likely to be a bust than VY because Kerry Collins can't start forever for the Titans (he's 36, i think?), and good offensive line will protect Young well if he becomes starter again. If he does become starter again, though, he'll be compared to Collins and his great start this year. (The expectations you talked about). Darren McFadden is no AD, let alone Bo Jackson yet, but he has a quite a few years to help take some of the pressure off of Russell. A real receiver would help, too.
But VY has the bar set higher for 'success' (whatever that is for a player without a ring) that Leinart will, because his Rose Bowl performance made his expectations so high that he was failing to meet them even before his meltdown this season.
Reason 5b. could be that franchise QB's are often chosen without regard to a franchise O-line to keep them on their feet.
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Tim Seeman 8 months ago
"I think Leinart is more likely to be a bust than VY because Kerry Collins can't start forever for the Titans"
and kurt warner can for the cardinals?
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GoBears 2008 8 months ago
Doh, i left a few sentences out, no wonder it made no sense.
The cardinals have allowed 15 sacks, the Titans 2. Also, the Titans defense has given up half as many points as the Cardinals defense. And the Cardinals are in the bottom 3 in the league in rushing, whereas Tennessee is in the top 5.
Leinart isn't very mobile, and even when he started 16 games in his 1st two seasons, he couldn't break 75 in passer rating, even throwing to Boldin and Fitzgerald.
Granted, VY throws way too many picks (and has a lower career rating than Leinart). But if he's given the chance again in Tennessee, i think he has more of a chance to succeed than Leinart does in Arizona.
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Scott Fender 8 months ago
what about Alex Smith in that mix?
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Brian Smith 8 months ago
Good article. I think there should be some sort of a rookie salary cap. What would fair, I have no idea. I think there should be some guaranteed money in case of injury.
First rounders are definitely a gamble in my opinion and teams are put in precarious positions when throwing all that money at them and if their player "Vicks" them, it's a fight trying to get the money back.
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Thomas H. 8 months ago
Overall this is very true, but McFadden has been mostly a breakout back in the last few games.
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Ari Horing 8 months ago
I have to disagree with that. Besides his game against the Chiefs, who have the worst run defense in the league, McFadden hasn't looked like anything more than an average NFL running back.
However, I'm not going to judge him yet, because he's been playing with a toe injury and hasn't yet been the full time feature back.
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Raider Card Addict 8 months ago
Well, you did give yourself an answer earlier...you won't really know how these guys do, until several seasons later. In the NFL anymore, usually you're going to see a star emerge in one to two seasons....but just as simple, you might also see them implode.
How many remember guys like Christian Okoye? Or Marion Butts? Or Bobby Humphrey? Or Harvey Williams? All were respective running backs for their collective teams, had decent years, but never had the longevity issue.
Right now, the tires are coming off one back named LT, and we got to see guys like Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin retire, and needs-to-retire Shaun Alexander.
I wouldn't throw McFadden out with the bathwater this early, or junk Russell. After all, with a QB, you also have to look at what the guy plays with. Archie Manning, for example was a good qb with a horrible team. Ken Stabler went from a great team, to a average team, and then to a sucky team.
Give Russell some WRs that can actually catch the ball, and a line that doesn't look like swiss cheese, and he may surprise people.
Or simply let Al Davis expire....he's aging like milk.
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John Fennelly 8 months ago
Your last statement about providing Russell with an infrastructure is a very telling one. That is most teams' problem - building a team, that is - but it most evident in this Raider franchise. They go about building a team in a backwards fashion. Instead of drafting skill players first, they should build an offensive line, draft some receivers and then find a QB that can run the offense. Getting themselves a GM that understand the modern-day NFL wouldn't hurt, either as would finding - and keeping - a coach who knows how to win.
I say the Raiders should hire someone from the NE/Pit/NYG/ front office to run their ops and then court someone like Pete Carroll or Steve Spagnoulo to coach the club. That is only the beginning. They may have to make some hard decisions along the way as well, meaning the JaMarcus experiment could be over...
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Brad James 8 months ago
Yes, I remember Christian Okoye. I remember Steve Atwater rocking his world. The Nigerian Nightmare was a nobody from that time on.
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John Fennelly 8 months ago
I like your idea, but your time frames are way too broad. The average shelf life of NFL players is 4 years - regardless of how they entered the league, be it through the draft or free agency. You should look to shorten your study to 6 years. I'll bet the results are similar. How many players from the 2002 draft are on NFL rosters right now? Do a study on that for me. Thanks.
Second, the reason a lot of first rounders crap out is because of hype. Many teams do not do their homework. They rely on what too many others think they should do with their pick. That is why so many teams in this league suck. Look at these 4 teams - NY Giants, New England, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. I'll bet these teams have more draft picks on their rosters than most teams do.
The reason why is they draft guys they KNOW will make their teams. They don't care what Mel Kiper says. Many highly touted players turn out to be busts because the wrong team drafts them at the wrong time. These 4 teams work out guys and make the determination if a player will fit their needs or not. They don't care about his 40 time or how many reps he can do on the bench press. Can he play our brand of football? Case closed.
I'll give you a quick example. Vernon Gholston was picked 5th by the Jets - who really wanted Darren McFadden. Instead, they missed out and settled for Gholston. Bad move. A lot of former players - even Ohio State players - questioned how good he was. Instead of trading down, and grabbing a better player such as Keith Rivers or Jerrod Mayo, the Jets took the bait and chose Gholston. My Jet contacts say he would have been cut in training camp if he were not the team's 1st round draft pick. The Jets wasted a first round pick because they succumbed to the media pressure rather than doing their homework and building their team with players that can actually play.
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Angel Navedo 8 months ago
From what I understand, the Jets were trying to trade away from that pick when the Raiders stole McFadden.
It's not always as easy as calling another team and saying, "Hey, care to give me the farm for my sixth overall?"
Nearly everyone I spoke to after the draft referred to Mayo as a reach where the Patriots selected him. And even they traded back out of their seventh spot. Sometimes there just aren't any moves to be had.
I'm not so angry with the draft choice as I am with the contract he received. Sure, the Jets may not have wanted him.. but a $9M a year contract?!
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Matthew Billard 8 months ago
i dont think vince young is a bust or will be. the guy had a mental breakdown but took his team to the playoffs the first year. i believe a bust is one in which they bust right after college, no? vince young is a great player who will come back
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Andrew Stephan 8 months ago
Nice article, I especially agree with your point about the first round hype. There is not a huge difference between the player taken 32nd and the player taken 33rd, but the expectation if for the first rounder to be a star and for the second rounder only to be a somewhat decent player. Often times, however the guy drafted 33rd is better and was not drafted higher because he didn't fit the teams in the first round. I like the analysis, I'd like to see a comparison between early first rounders and late first rounders because I think there is a different set of expectations for those two groups and they are usually put on vastly different teams and in vastly different situations.
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Bruce Dickenson 8 months ago
That is why I have never understood the old saying you build through the draft.
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Brad Webster 8 months ago
Who's this Jones you speak of?
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Brad Webster 8 months ago
I never liked Michael Vick, because of his "run first" mentality. I believe Vince is going to fall in the same trap. The Titans wouldn't be undefeated at this point if not for Collins. By the way, even in his mid-30's, Collins isn't necessarily a game manager, but a gunslinger. I think Leinart has the makeup of a great future QB, but he's got to work harder and put football first. Russel will probably be a bust as long as things are a mess in Oakland. They can't keep coaches, some say they have trouble getting the best coaches, and there just isn't any stability there. A young quarterback can't develop behind an unstable offense.
San Francisco had some of the same instability issues as Oakland, and that's why Alex Smith won't pan out. The shining star in waiting stands on the Browns' sidelines. He's got the work ethic, the time on the sideline, he's seen the best and worst from Derek Anderson, and he's got the confidence in himself, and in an improving Cleveland franchise.
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Scott Rieger 8 months ago
Good topic Ari and good research. It's interesting but I think the hype is something that will always be there and is perpetuated by fans. Most fans are so excited when a player that was awesome in college gets selected by their team, because in most cases, the team "needs" talent at that position and the fan expects the Offense/Defense to instantly become better based solely on the kid's presence. This is magnifyed at the Offensive skill positions like Quarterback, Running Back and Receiver since those guys have the ball in their hands so much and are expected to score touchdowns.
I agree that the expectations are tough to live up to and like some other posters have said, the rookie salaries are out of control and need to be looked at.
Anyways, I liked this article brother. Good job!
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Bob Barker 8 months ago
I cant believe that the NFL players association wont agree to a rookie salary cap.
Players that have never played in the league make gazillions more than established
pros that have worked hard and deserve more money.
This way the owners and the players both get what they want. Players, money for
productivity and the owners get results for their money. If the rookie is that good,
he'll get his money down the line when he's earned it.
I know that the players association wont agree to it, but pay for production. Look
what happens to a player in the last year of his contract. Great year, signs big new
contract, goes to crap after that, more times than often.
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Eric Gomez 8 months ago
Excellent idea for an article. Considering college and the professional level are so markedly different, it isn't really a crap shoot, but it's really in "educated guess" territory when it comes down to predicting who's going to be a star in the NFL.
PS - Good job making a Chargers fan hurl with your article's picture.
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Rick Still 8 months ago
Motivation is hard to measure, but you can tell in some of the first round picks that their motives were purely extrinsic (money, fame, glory) and this type of motivation does not last long, and then once you receive all these things you are left without motivation. Those with intrinsic motivation (making HOF, being better than you thought possible, doing this for yourself) will last a lot longer in the league and although they are motivated to get the big bucks, thats not their only motivation, just an added bonus. Once these players receive that big contract they still have the strongest motivation left, intrinsic. Those with extrinsic motivation also tend to burnout a lot faster, usually once they get the big contract, and you cannot play the game of football at any level if you don't care. Those players who are drafted in the later rounds usually develop intrinsic motivation, chip on their shoulder and have something to prove (e.g. Steve Smith) these are the types of players you want on your team. I'm sure one day, if they haven't already, sports psychologists will be able to measure this and busts should go down.
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Benji Zeledon 8 months ago
Huh that is true
You really do never know how things do run do you? =/
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Chris Abbott 8 months ago
Hey, I don't know if you know this, but Ted Kluck on ESPN.com has a similar write up, but waaaay more in depth. I'm not saying you copied his work at all, just advising that you might want to check it out if you are interested in the subject.
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luis garcia 8 months ago
Very smart and sound, I have s suggestion that would be great, to run the same analysis for 2nd, 3rd, etc rounds.
My guess is that even has we label a high rate of failure on 1st round, its probably higher success rate than other rounds? This is my hypothesis.
So then what happens is that we are placing too much expectation on 1st rounders and when they fail, we truly focus much more on it.
Cheers for smart analysis.
Luis
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Yo Momma 3 months ago
Fuck You
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I ate 3 months ago
Fuck you all!! You all just need to die a slow but painful death and burn in hell you dumb ass wipe sad excuse of a life!
Thank you, have a nice day :]
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Eat'a cowout 3 months ago
Naw fuck you u white trash bitch!
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