What Are an NFL First-Round Pick's Odds for Success?

After watching JaMarcus Russell play so poorly, and Darren McFadden not even play this weekend, in the Raiders' dismal loss to the Ravens, I started to wonder how likely it is that an NFL first-round pick will fulfill his potential or be a bust.

To find this out, I went searching for information that would help me understand what percentage of first-round picks do succeed in the NFL.

I ended up finding an article that showed where every first-round pick's, from the '95 draft up until the 2004 draft, career was at by the 2005 offseason.

I decided to only look at the '95, '96, '97, and '98 NFL first rounds, because in order to truly evaluate a draft pick’s career, you have to wait at least six to nine years after they were drafted to be fairly judge them.

After looking at these four drafts, I found that 54 out of the 122 (44 percent) first-round draft picks were out of the league by the beginning of the 2005 season. (One out of five Qbs, nine out of 14 RBs, nine out of 15 WRs, eight out of 17 tackles, one out of five guards, one out of three TEs, 10 out of 20 DEs, two out of four DTs, seven out of 15 DBs, five out of 13 LBs, and one out of five safeties).

I also found out that 60 out of the 122 draft picks (49 percent) were starters in the NFL by the 2005 season and 47 of them (39 percent) were Pro Bowlers at least once in their career.

What surprised me the most was that only eight players out of 122 (seven percent) were backup players on NFL teams by 2005, with only one coming from the '98 first round.

I started to wonder if the NFL’s first-round draft is just a miss-or-hit round full of stars and busts. I thought about what could be the reason for this and came up with some possible answers:

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