2011 MLB Mock Draft: MLB Players the Top 10 Prospects Most Resemble
With every draft, there is a lot of uncertainty. This is especially true with the MLB draft. There are college players who have proven themselves at a high level and then there are high school stars who have dominated against inferior competition but have incredible tools.
There is no real clear-cut superstar at the top of this year's draft as there was in 2009 with Stephen Strasburg and 2010 with Bryce Harper. In addition, there is a lot of uncertainty when it comes down to what the draftees will be like when they reach the majors.
However, based on their past performances, we can compare these draft prospects to major leaguers that represent good matches for their career paths.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA
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MLB Comparison: Stephen Strasburg
The Pirates took two great pitching prospects (Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie) in the first two rounds of last year's draft, but that should not stop them from selecting Cole. He has struggled a bit this season, but he has shown the tools that make him worthy of being the No. 1 pick.
Cole has a fastball that can touch 99 mph and also features a biting slider and a devastating changeup. He has 99 strikeouts in 99 innings this year and he has shown that he certainly has a power arm.
The comparison to Strasburg may be unwarranted, but they are a similar type of pitcher. Strasburg proved that he was ready to compete in the majors quickly and Cole is similar in that regard, although it will take him more time than it took Strasburg. They also have similarities with their repertoire although Strasburg's was better and he was much more polished when he was drafted.
2. Seattle Mariners: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
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MLB Comparison: Ryan Zimmerman
It had looked like Rendon would be the No. 1 pick in this year's draft before he faced injury issues. Scouts have questioned his durability and wonder if he is injury prone. He will not drop far though if the Pirates decide to pass on him with the top pick. The Mariners would certainly be happy to select him.
Rendon has managed to play in all of Rice's 56 games this season and has put up impressive numbers. He is batting .323 with 76 walks in 262 at-bats, which gives him an absurd 29 percent walk rate. He has hit just five home runs this year, but he was a big power threat in 2010, knocking 26 balls out of the park.
Zimmerman and Rendon seem to have a lot in common. They are both power bats at third base and each is considered to be a strong defender. Zimmerman has already proven it by winning a Gold Glove. Another common trait that they share is that they have both had to struggle through injuries.
Photo Credit: Rice University
3. Arizona Diamonbacks: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia
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MLB Comparison: Cliff Lee
There has been speculation that Hultzen could actually be taken as the first pick in the draft this season. That talk is certainly not unwarranted as Hultzen has been the ace of the University of Virgina's staff since his freshman year, and he has done nothing but impress during his time on campus.
Hultzen has great mechanics to go along with his great statistics. He has a 1.49 ERA, .189 BAA, and 131 K's in 90.1 innings during 13 starts this season. Hultzen has a slender, yet muscular build and has room to get a bit bigger so that he can increase his ability to go deep into games. His pitches have great movement and they should only get better when he is able to work with MLB pitching coaches.
Virginia coach Brian O'Connor has compared Hultzen to Phillies ace Cliff Lee. He has finesse when he pitches and has shown an ability to strike out a lot of hitters. He profiles to be a similar pitcher to Lee but he might not be able to be as dominant as Lee has been.
Photo Credit: University of Virginia
4. Baltimore Orioles: Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA
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MLB Comparison: Tim Lincecum
There is speculation that the Orioles may select high schooler Dylan Bundy with this pick. However, the Orioles have had issues with high school pitchers in the past (see Matt Hobgood), so they may want to go the safer route and pick a college star.
Bauer's scouting report notes that he has a strong throwing arm and is quick to learn new things in the dugout due to his high baseball IQ. Bauer put out good numbers in his first two years at UCLA, but this year he has been phenomenal. A 1.37 ERA and a .151 BAA would normally be the highlights of any pitcher's line, but there is another number that stands out for Bauer. He has a 13.3 K/9 rate.
The comparison between Lincecum and Bauer is an easy one to make. Bauer must also love to hear it as he has said that Lincecum is his favorite player. Both pitchers have a similar delivery and Bauer's fastball and slider stack up well against his competition.
Photo Credit: UCLA
5. Kansas City Royals: Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS)
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MLB Comparison: Carl Crawford
Bubba Starling will have a big decision to make in his near future. He has a scholarship to play quarterback for the Nebraska Cornhuskers and he will most likely be a top-10 pick in the MLB draft this year. It will likely take a team that is willing to go over slot to sign something. The Royals have been known to do this. It also does not hurt that they play very close to Starling's home state.
Starling is one of those players that contains a unique combination of speed and power. These players are very hard to find, which obviously makes them very valuable. The scary thing is that Starling has never committed himself fully to baseball because of his talents on both the football field and basketball court.
While the Carl Crawford comparison is a good one, there is one major difference between the two. Starling has a lot more power potential. He's already a big kid at 6'5", 200 lbs., and he should only get bigger. He has the potential to be a 30/30 player if everything goes right.
Photo Credit: Pro Draft Central
6. Washington Nationals: Dylan Bundy, RHP, Owasso HS (OK)
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MLB Comparison: Kyle Drabek
The Orioles have Bundy's brother Robert in their system, but that likely will not be enough to convince them to take him over Trevor Bauer. The Orioles' loss is the Nationals' gain, as Bundy will not slip past them.
The Nationals already have two of the best young players in baseball and will not be competitive for a few years. While Bundy is a high school arm, he is fairly polished and will only need a few years in the minors. Bundy has a smooth delivery and an impressive pitching arsenal for someone so young.
Physically, the comparison to Drabek is easy to make because both athletes are a similar size. Drabek was able to dominate in the minors and reached MLB before his 22nd birthday. It is very possible that Bundy develops into a similar pitcher and takes a similar path.
Photo Source: Perfect Game USA
7. Arizona Diamondbacks: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
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MLB Comparison: Roy Oswalt
The success of shorter pitchers such as Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum has made teams more willing to draft players early that are less than 6'0". This is great news for the 5'11" Gray. He also features a quirky delivery, but once again, pitchers have demonstrated success with unique deliveries.
Gray is in the middle of a very successful junior year. He has posted a 2.17 ERA and a .193 BAA in addition to 105 strikeouts in 95.1 innings. Gray has good control and has been able to limit his walk total to just 38. He is one of the top college pitchers available in the draft and has shown an outstanding curveball and an improving changeup to go along with his fastball.
Roy Oswalt has a very similar physical stature to Gray. Just like Oswalt, Gray is not an overpowering pitcher, and he uses his strong secondary pitchers to generate outs. Oswalt has shown the ability to strike out batters and limit his walks, something that Gray should be able to accomplish as well.
Photo Credit: University of Vanderbilt
8. Cleveland Indians: Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
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MLB Comparison: Josh Beckett
The surprising Indians, who are in first place in the AL Central, already have two great, young pitching prospects in Alex White and Drew Pomeranz. However, there is no reason for them not to add a third so that they could potentially have a top-flight rotation in the future.
Bradley has done a lot this year to improve his draft stock and he has a shot to go in the top 10. He has effortless arm action when he delivers to home plate and also has great control of his pitches. Bradley has an advanced feel for the game and it can be seen through his pitch selection. He has shown the ability to throw two changeups, one with sink and another that is straight, and he knows when to throw each one.
One of the major tenants of Beckett's success has been his ability to throw his secondary pitches for strikes. Bradley also shares this ability. Like Beckett, Bradley may face some ups and downs, but in the end, he will turn out to a be a solid No. 1 or No. 2 option.
Photo Credit: Perfect Game USA
9. Chicago Cubs: Matt Purke, LHP, TCU
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MLB Comparison: Clayton Kershaw
This pick may seem to be a bit of a reach because of Purke's shoulder injury, which kept him out for part of this season, but the sophomore may be the most talented left-handed pitcher in this draft. He was already selected 14th overall in the 2009 draft and he has done nothing but impress when he has been on the mound.
In 2010, Purke went 16-0 with a 3.02 ERA. This season, he has only improved, albeit in just nine outings, and has gone 5-1 with a 1.44 ERA. Purke throws a hard fastball, a solid curve and an average slider; however, questions about Purke's mechanics and how they will impact his health have been an issue.
Yes, Purke has the potential to be that good. Like Kershaw, Purke is a physically imposing pitcher. He goes out and attacks hitters but will likely post slightly lower strikeout numbers than Kershaw. There is no reason that, if he stays healthy, Purke can't be the ace of the Cubs staff within a few years.
Photo Credit: Associated Press
10. San Diego Padres: Francisco Lindor, SS, Monteverde Academy (FL)
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MLB Comparison: Stephen Drew
Lindor is a switch-hitting, five-tool shortstop, which makes him an incredibly valuable commodity. He has also committed to play at Florida State next year, which means that he may be difficult to sign.
As the winner of the Aflac All-American High School Baseball Classic's Home Run Derby last year, one would expect a lot of power form Lindor; however, that is not that case. He is much more of a gap hitter than a power hitter. He could hit about 15 home runs a year, while his speed allows him to steal 20 bases.
Just like Drew, Lindor projects to be an above-average defender at shortstop. He should also produce numbers similar to what Drew was able to put up last year—a .278 average with 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases. Lindor is also similar in size to Drew, but if he is able to grow a bit, then he could develop some more power and speed.
Photo Credit: Pro Draft Central
