NFL Draft 2011: Odds of Each Philadelphia Eagles Draft Pick Starting in 2011

Mike BurkeCorrespondent IMay 4, 2011

NFL Draft 2011: Odds of Each Philadelphia Eagles Draft Pick Starting in 2011

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    Whenever a new draft class comes in, you have to stop and reflect on how these guys will fit in on their rosters.  What role will they immediately serve?  If they are not a day-one starter, at what point point should they be expected to crack the starting lineup? 

    I've asked myself all of these questions about the new Eagles draft class. There's a variety of situations out there. Some guys should definitely start from day one, others may not be an opening-day starter but have the ability to work their way in, later in the season.  Some guys may struggle.

    All in all, the Eagles brought in another big draft class, and they should be exciting to watch.  We won't be able to fully judge them until later, but for now we can make our own predictions.

    Here is a pick-by-pick breakdown of the players I think would start at some point during the 2011 season.

Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor (First Round)

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    Whether you liked the selection of Danny Watkins or not, one thing is clear: he fills a big need and was drafted with the expectation of starting from day one.

    With Howard Mudd taking over the reigns of the offensive line, I'm sure he spent a lot of time watching film on Watkins before the draft. Mudd probably told Andy Reid "that's my guy", and it wasn't that surprising that Watkins was selected.

    He fits the mold Reid looks for in a player. Watkins is hard working, has a high motor and isn't afraid to get his hands dirty along the line. He's a solid pick by the Eagles and a guy you'll see on the field when the 2011 season starts.

    Chance of Starting: 100 percent

Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple (Second Round)

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    Jarrett was a player we knew the Eagles were interested in, since they decided to bring him in for a workout prior to the draft. However, a lot of people were surprised to see him taken in the second round, as most scouts projected him as a third-round pick.

    Despite the projection, the Eagles decided he was a good fit for them and wanted to make sure he didn't go anywhere else. 

    With free agency yet to begin, we're unsure of the fate of Quintin Mikell.  However, all indications seem to be that the Eagles will let him walk. They drafted a safety higher than most expected, and Mikell is now 30 years old, the dreaded age for many Eagles players.

    If Mikell does indeed walk, I don't expect the Eagles to just hand Jarrett the starting position.  He'll have to compete for it in camp with Kurt Coleman. I think he has a good shot of taking the starting position when the season starts, but if he doesn't, I expect him to start at some point in 2011.

    Chance of Starting: 85 percent

Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State (Third Round)

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    This was a bit of a bewildering pick by the Eagles. Many believed they would look for a corner early in the draft to fill the void they have opposite Asante Samuel. Instead, the Eagles waited until the third round and drafted a player who only played the position his last two seasons in college.

    Marsh is a great athlete and has a nice combination of speed and size. He's shown that he can be talented in the short time he's played the position, but he still has a lot to learn. He'll face much more talented receivers in the NFL and won't be able to rely on his athleticism as much.

    Unless there are a rash of injuries, I don't see Marsh cracking the starting lineup in 2011. He'll fight for a position in the nickel package, but his talents are too raw to be thrown into the starting lineup next season.

    Chance of Starting: 10 percent

Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon (Fourth Round)

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    Matthews is a guy I knew the Eagles were high on heading into the draft, and I'm sure they were very happy to pick him up in the fourth round.  He's has a high motor and is a relentless player that is always making plays around the ball.

    He's going to work hard from day one and will absolutely shine on special teams from the start. 

    When it comes to defense, the Eagles are in an interesting situation. It looks like Jamar Chaney will take over in the middle.  If Stewart Bradley is resigned, which I expect him to be, he'll likely bounce out to the SAM position, and there will be some competition for the WILL spot.  Moise Fokou, Keenan Clayton, Brian Rolle and Matthews should likely be the contenders.

    I don't think Matthews will win the battle in camp, but he'll continue to work hard. They'll likely have some packages that he'll work into. If he shines in the time he's given, he may be able to get into the starting lineup at some point in 2011.

    Chance of Starting: 35 percent

Alex Henery, K, Nebraska (Fourth Round)

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    This pick caught me off guard. However, after I pondered it, I think it was a good pick by the Eagles.  Like it or not, the Eagles are going to have to replace David Akers some day, and this pick indicates that they have found a guy they believe can do so.

    Akers is the longest-tenured athlete in Philadelphia, and it's going to hurt to see him go.  However, Henery had an outstanding collegiate career and has proven that he has a good leg.

    The only thing that he'll need to prove is that he can make kicks in pressure situations. He did it in college, but the NFL is a whole new ball game.

    With the Eagles taking a kicker this high in the draft, I believe they fully expect him to come in and be the guy in 2011.

    Chance of Starting: 100 percent

Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh (Fifth Round)

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    When the Eagles entered the draft, we knew that they had interest in taking a running back in the middle rounds. They worked out a number of backs before the draft, all of whom were projected to be mid-round or later selections.

    As expected, the Eagles took a running back in the fifth round. Dion Lewis was the selection, and the Eagles went back to the University of Pittsburgh to get him, the same place they found LeSean McCoy.

    Lewis was not drafted to come in and compete for a starting position. He was drafted to come in and compete as a backup. The Eagles hope McCoy will take Lewis under his wing and the two can turn into a dynamic duo for years to come.

    Again, this is a player who won't start unless there are injuries.

    Chance of Starting: 5 percent

Julian Vandervelde, OG, Iowa (Fifth Round)

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    As we got deeper into the draft, I believe Howard Mudd had a list of targets that would fit into his plans for 2011. I believe Vandervelde is one of those guys.

    Mudd has never been the type of coach to sign the biggest lineman out there. He prefers to find guys who may be considered a bit smaller, but who have quick feet and are very athletic.

    Vandervelde fits the bill here and was a known leader and team captain at Iowa.  He should provide some nice depth, but with Todd Herremans and Danny Watkins projected to be starters, I don't see him finding a starting position this season.

    Chance of Starting: 5 percent

Jason Kelce, C, Cincinnati (Sixth Round)

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    Jason Kelce also seems like another Howard Mudd guy. He's very versatile and played guard at Cincinnati until his senior year when he moved to center. Fortunately, he'll likely be asked to learn both positions for the Eagles.

    His build is like Vandervelde's. He's a guy that could be considered a smaller offensive lineman but has more athletic ability than most guys who are bigger than him.

    The Eagles have had recent success in drafting guys out of Cincinnati in the later rounds—Trent Cole and Brent Celek—and the Eagles are hoping Kelce is another late gem.

    However, with the players the Eagles currently have on the interior of their offensive line, it seems very unlikely that Kelce will find his way into the starting lineup in 2011.

    Chance of Starting: 5 percent

Brian Rolle, LB, Ohio State (Sixth Round)

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    Rolle is a player who is a lot like Casey Matthews.  He has a high motor and is absolutely relentless when he's on the field. Wherever the ball is on the field, he'll likely be around it. 

    Like Matthews, I expect Rolle to come in and immediately shine as a special teams player. He'll use his speed to get downfield and has been known to lay down a big hit or two.

    As mentioned earlier, there's definitely going to be a lot of competition with the linebackers, both in training camp and throughout the season. Whoever ends up starting needs to realize that there are a bunch of guys working hard behind him, and that they need to play at a high level or they will be replaced.

    I don't expect Rolle to be a starter from day one, but I know he has a great work ethic and will try to find his way on the field at some point in the season.

    Chance of Starting: 30 percent

Greg Lloyd, LB, Connecticut (Seventh Round)

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    Unlike the other two linebackers the Eagles drafted, Lloyd's game is not built on speed.  He is built for power and is known to be a devastating hitter in the run game.

    He's a big player and is someone who appeals to me because he can deliver that nasty blow. It's been a while since the Eagles had a hard-hitting linebacker, and that's exactly what Lloyd is.

    However, the Eagles took a risk in drafting Lloyd. He tore his ACL and MCL at the end of the 2009 season and it forced him to miss a lot of games in 2010.

    My gut tells me that Lloyd is going to have trouble staying healthy for the Eagles. Even if he does, I don't see him making his way into the starting lineup in 2011.

    Chance of Starting: 5 percent

Stanley Havili, FB, USC (Seventh Round)

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    In drafting Havili, the Eagles have shown they aren't very confident in Leonard Weaver returning this season, or possibly ever. It's not the biggest surprise in the world, and it's a shame because Weaver is such a great guy.

    The Eagles aren't a team that uses a traditional blocking fullback too often. We saw Weaver shine two years ago as a runner and receiver out of the backfield, and Owen Schmitt was used this way last season as well.

    Havili fits well with what the Eagles are looking for in a fullback.  He's not known to be a very good blocker, but he has tremendous hands for a guy his size and can be a situational runner as well.

    However, the Eagles will only keep one fullback on the roster and it's hard to see Havili beating out Schmitt for the job.

    Chance of Starting: 5 percent