2011 NFL Draft: Meet NFL Mock Draft King Rick Gosselin of Dallas Morning News
Rick Gosselin, Senior Writer of the Dallas News, is widely considered to be one of the best in the business at correctly predicting first round NFL draft picks. The 2011 NFL Draft was no exception, and Gosselin easily outproduced other NFL Draft experts such as Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Peter King,
What was especially interesting was how astute Gosselin was regarding the priority that NFL teams were placing on potential franchise quarterbacks compared to his industry counterparts.
We will take a detailed look at his selections and compare them to what Kiper, McShay and King did. At the conclusion, we will reveal the only two NFL teams that Gosselin gave an A grade to, and one of them will be a surprise to most NFL fans. In addition, we will share his gem selection for each round of the draft.
According to his blog on the Dallas Morning News, his bio reads as follows: Rick has covered the NFL for 31 years, including the past 14 as NFL columnist for The Dallas Morning News. He grew up playing hockey on the canals on the east side of Detroit and played high school games at Olympia Stadium, the old home of the Detroit Red Wings. He has been to more Super Bowls than his hometown Lions have.
Meet Rick Gosselin, NFL Draftnik
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What exactly is a NFL Draftnik anyway? According to Wikipedia, draftnik is a term describing those who study professional sports leagues drafts and cover the draft in the media. The term is most often used in reference to the NFL Draft and was coined in the mid-1980's after the draft was first televised by ESPN.
In 2002, TheHuddleReport.com began grading the efforts of draftniks and tracking the success of their mock draft. The Huddle Report awards two points for correctly predicting a team's draft pick and one point for each player correctly placed in the first round. You can see which draftnik has been graded out as the best by the Huddle Report right here.
Huddle Report Annual Mock Draft Winners
2011 - Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News
2010 - Will Spencer and Rob Engle, Draft Breakdown
2009 - Mike Band, DraftAce
2008 - Robby Esch, The Huddle Report
2007 - Clark Judge, CBS Sportsline
2006 - Rick Gosselin Dallas Morning News
2005 - Harry Aitkens
2004 - Scott Wright - Draft Countdown
2003 - Rick Gosselin Dallas Morning News
2002 - The Red Zone
As you can see from the chart above, there has only been one repeat winner, Rick Gosselin. In fact, this year is the third year that he has won, according to the Huddle Report.
How Experts Faired on Picks 1 to 10
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Here are the results for Rick Gosselin (RG), Todd McShay (TM), Mel Kiper (MK) and Peter King (PK) for picks 1 - 10.
Overall Pick 1 - Actual Pick: Cam Newton. All four experts had it correct.
Overall Pick 2 - Actual Pick: Von Miller. RG, TM and MK had it right. PK guessed Marcell Dareus.
Overall Pick 3 - Actual Pick: Marcell Dareus. RG, TM and MK had it right. PK guessed Blaine Gabbert.
Overall Pick 4 - Actual Pick: A.J. Green. All four experts had it correct.
Overall Pick 5 - Actual Pick: Patrick Peterson. RG and MK had it correct. TM guessed Aldon Smith and PK guessed it would be Von Miller.
Overall Pick 6 - Acutal Pick: Julio Jones. All four experts again had it correct.
Overall Pick 7 - Actual Pick: Aldon Smith. RG, TM and MK all guessed it would be Blaine Gabbert. PK guessed it would be Patrick Peterson.
Overall Pick 8 - Actual Pick: Jake Locker. RG was the only one to get it right. Other three guessed Nick Fairley.
Overall Pick 9 - Actual Pick: Tyron Smith. RG and PK got it right. TM guessed JJ Watt, and MK guessed Cam Jordan.
Overall Pick 10 - Actual Pick Blaine Gabbert - RG guessed Christian Ponder. Other three guessed Robert Quinn.
How Experts Faired on Picks 11 to 20
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Here are the results for Rick Gosselin (RG), Todd McShay (TM), Mel Kiper (MK) and Peter King (PK) for picks 11-20.
Overall Pick 11 - Actual Pick: JJ Watt. RG, MK and PK guessed Aldon Smith. TM guessed Patrick Peterson.
Overall Pick 12 - Actual Pick: Christian Ponder. RG guessed Andy Dalton, TM guessed Anthony Castonzo and MK and PK both guessed Jake Locker.
Overall Pick 13 - Actual Pick: Nick Fairley. RG was correct. TM and MK guessed Tyron Smith. PK guessed Prince Amukamara.
Overall Pick 14 - Actual Pick: Robert Quinn. RG guessed Mark Ingram. Other three guessed Corey Liuget.
Overall Pick 15 - Actual Pick: Mike Pouncey. All four were correct.
Overall Pick 16 - Actual Pick: Ryan Kerrigan. RG, TM and MK were correct. PK guessed Cameron Jordan.
Overall Pick 17 - Actual Pick: Nate Solder. RG and TM guessed Cameron Jordan. MK guessed Muhammad Wilkerson and PK guessed Da'Quan Bowers.
Overall Pick 18 - Actual Pick: Corey Liuget. RG was the only one that had it right. TM guessed Muhammad Wilkerson, while MK and PK both guessed it was JJ Watt.
Overall Pick 19 - Actual Pick: Prince Amukamara. RG guessed Nate Solder. TM guessed Mark Ingram. MK and PK both guessed it was Anthony Castonzo.
Overall Pick 20 - Actual Pick: Adrian Clayborn. RG guessed Robert Quinn. TM and MK guessed Prince Amukarama, and PK guessed Ryan Kerrigan.
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.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
How Experts Faired on Picks 21 to 26
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Here are the results for Rick Gosselin (RG), Todd McShay (TM), Mel Kiper (MK) and Peter King (PK) for picks 21-26.
Overall Pick 21 - Actual Pick: Phil Taylor. RG, MK and PK all guessed Gabe Carimi. TM guessed Nate Solder.
Overall Pick 22 - Actual Pick: Anthony Castonzo. RG was the only one that got it right. TM guessed Gabe Carimi and MK and PK guessed it was Nate Solder.
Overall Pick 23 - Actual Pick: Danny Watkins. PK was the only one that got it right. RG, TM and MK guessed it was Jimmy Smith.
Overall Pick 24 - Actual Pick: Cameron Jordan. RG and PK guessed it was Adrian Clayborn. TM guessed it was Phil Taylor. MK guessed it was Da'Quan Bowers.
Overall Pick 25 - Actual Pick: James Carpenter. RG guessed it was Prince Amukamara. TM guessed it was Danny Watkins. MK and PK both guessed it was Andy Dalton.
Overall Pick 26 - Actual Pick: Jonathan Baldwin. RG guessed JJ Watt. TM guessed Adrian Clayborn. MK guessed Akeem Ayers. PK guessed Jimmy Smith.
How Experts Faired on Picks 27 to 32
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Here are the results for Rick Gosselin (RG), Todd McShay (TM), Mel Kiper (MK) and Peter King (PK) for picks 27-32.
Overall Pick 27 - Actual pick: Jimmy Smith. RG guessed Phil Taylor. TM guessed Da'Quan Bowers. MK guessed Adrian Clayborn. PK guessed Jonathan Baldwin.
Overall Pick 28 - Actual pick: Mark Ingram. MK and PK both got it right. RG guessed Danny Watkins. TM guessed Brooks Reed.
Overall Pick 29 - Actual pick: Marvin Austin. RG guessed Marvin Austin. The other three guessed Derek Sherrod.
Overall Pick 30 - Actual pick: Muhammad Wilkerson. RG guessed Derek Sherrod. TM guessed Akeem Ayers. MK and PK guessed Phil Taylor.
Overall Pick 31 - Actual pick: Cameron Heyward. RG and TM both got it right. MK and PK both guessed it was Aaron Williams.
Overall Pick 32 - Actual pick: Derek Sherrod. RG and TM guessed it was Aaron Williams. MK guessed Danny Watkins. PK guessed it was Cameron Heyward.
For a chart that breaks down all 32 picks, you can find that here.
What Were the Hardest Picks to Forecast?
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From the panel of experts in this comparison, there were 16 players that nobody predicted correctly when they would be drafted. At least one expert got the other 16 correct.
This suggests that some were clearly surprise picks, either going much higher or much lower than projected. Just to clarify, not that they were surprises that they were picked, but rather where they were picked overall, which was the surprise. Except for James Carpenter, who did not appear on anyone's first round ballot.
Those players were: Aldon Smith, Blaine Gabbert, JJ Watt, Christian Ponder, Robert Quinn, Nate Solder, Prince Amukamara, Adrian Clayborn, Phil Taylor, Cameron Jordan, James Carpenter, Jonathan Baldwin, Jimmy Smith, Gabe Carimi, Muhammad Wilkerson and Derek Sherrod.
Why Rick Gosselin won: He was the only one that identified Jake Locker going to Tennessee at 8. Nobody else had him going in the top 10. He also projected Christian Ponder as going at 10, and even though he missed it, the fact that he had him going so soon took some major conviction. None of the other three experts even had Ponder going anywhere in the first round.
Looking at the results, I can see why Bud Light is willing to pay $10,000,000 to anyone that can guess all 32 picks correctly.
Which Two NFL Teams Did Rick Gosselin Give "A" Grades To?
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According to an article that appeared in the Buffalo News, Mark Gaughan wrote that Dallas Morning News draft analyst Rick Gosselin gave the Buffalo Bills the only A+ grade in the draft in his analysis of the selections today.
Wrote Gosselin: The Bills had nine selections and five of them were above value for the round they were drafted: Williams, Hairston, the two Whites and Rogers. A good draft becomes great in the third day. The Bills hit for the cycle on Saturday. A+
According to a story ran by Chris Brown, lead journalist for Buffalo Bills.com, the only other NFL team that Gosselin awarded an A grade to was the Baltimore Ravens.
As of now, I have not been able to secure the rest of Rick Gosselin's draft grades. If anyone has a link for them, or cares to share them with everyone else, please make a notation in the comment section.
What Were Rick Gosselin's Gem Picks in Each Round of the Draft?
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According to an article that Rick Gosselin ran after the draft concluded, here is his list of draft gems for each round of the NFL draft. He considers these to be the best values in each round.
First round - NICK FAIRLEY, DT, DETROIT
Second round - DANIEL THOMAS, HB, MIAMI
Third round: RYAN MALLETT, QB, NEW ENGLAND
Fourth round - LUKE STOCKER, TE, TAMPA BAY
Fifth round - JEREMY KERLEY, WR, NY JETS
Sixth round - TYLER SASH, S, NY GIANTS
Seventh round - ANDREW JACKSON, G, ATLANTA
Thank you for reading this presentation. If anything struck you as interesting from their picks, feel free to leave a comment. Hope you enjoyed it.
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