NFL Draft 2011: Predicting Where the Top 10 Quarterbacks Will Land
The first round of this year’s NFL draft is expected to be dominated by both offensive and defensive linemen. We could also see zero running backs selected in the first round.
Yet the talk of the entire draft will be where exactly the top quarterbacks land—which could be as many as six quarterbacks taken in the first round alone!
Quarterback is top-heavy this year, highlighted by Auburn’s Heisman winner Cam Newton, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, Washington’s Jake Locker, Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett, Florida State’s Christian Ponder, TCU’s Andy Dalton and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick.
There are still a few other signal-callers in the draft who could make an impact such as Virginia Tech’s Tyrod Taylor, Alabama’s Greg McElroy and Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi.
Last week I power ranked the top 10 quarterbacks in the draft; now it’s time to predict where the top 10 quarterbacks will land in the 2011 NFL draft without using trade scenarios.
10. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech
1 of 10
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 217 lbs
Career Stats: 7,017 yards, 44 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.51
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—37.5
Broad Jump—126.0
3-Cone Drill—6.78
20-yard Shuttle—4.12
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Tyrod Taylor projects to have more of a Brad Smith-type impact than Troy Smith in the NFL. Taylor is an extremely athletic quarterback who would do fine in spot starts but will most likely not be an NFL starter.
He wants to play quarterback, and he should, but right now his career is heading on a different path and he must accept that he can offer a great deal of versatility to an offense. His ability to pass the ball will be a factor, but not as a starter barring injury to the team’s No. 1 signal-caller.
With his ability to play different positions a la Brad Smith, I believe we will see him in green and white to serve an all-purpose role as a rookie.
Prediction: Round 5 to the New York Jets
9. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
2 of 10
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 223 lbs
Career Stats: 7,377 yards, 56 touchdowns, 31 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.93
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—32.5
Broad Jump—110.0
3-Cone Drill—6.95
20-yard Shuttle—4.43
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Ricky Stanzi at one point was pegged as a potential second- or third-round selection, but his draft stock has fallen back down as the top seven quarterbacks could be gone by the middle of the second round.
This will allow one team to luck out and draft a potential starter, or at least a serviceable backup who could push the incumbent starter. For this team, Stanzi will light a fire under the incumbent or will be the starter by next season. This team relies on its power running and has a solid wide receiver corps, the perfect destination for a rookie quarterback.
Prediction: Round 6 to the Miami Dolphins
8. Greg McElroy, Alabama
3 of 10
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 220 lbs
Career Stats: 5,691 yards, 39 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.91
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—33.0
Broad Jump—107.0
3-Cone Drill—7.11
20-yard Shuttle—4.45
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Greg McElroy enters the draft as one of the most intelligent players in history, as he scored 48 out of 50 on the Wonderlic test.
Some are worrying that McElroy’s test score could hurt his draft stock as he may be too intelligent. If things go the way I intend, that will actually be a blessing in disguise.
Rumors circulated recently that New England could be drafting the heir apparent to the current-day king, Tom Brady, in this year’s draft. This would be the perfect fit for McElroy as he has the greatest coach in NFL history (and also diabolical genius) teaching him the game and a Hall of Fame quarterback to watch every day in practice.
Prediction: Round 6 to the New England Patriots
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7. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
4 of 10
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 233 lbs
Career Passing Stats: 10,098 yards, 82 touchdowns, 24 interceptions
Career Rushing Stats: 4,112 yards, 59 touchdowns
40-yard Dash—4.53
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—32.5
Broad Jump—115.0
3-Cone Drill—6.85
20-yard Shuttle—4.18
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Colin Kaepernick may actually be even more athletic than Cam Newton. The Tennessee Titans are ready to end the Vince Young era and head in another direction. As the team looks to get the ball in Chris Johnson’s hands more often in 2011, Tennessee appears to be an excellent destination for any rookie quarterback.
The Titans may be looking to move away from Vince Young, but that doesn’t mean they can’t select a player with a similar style who could translate better in the NFL. Kaepernick has much better accuracy and will be able to put the pressure on opposing defenses on the ground with his running ability. The Titans may hope a more traditional pocket-passer falls, but they cannot pass up a player with Kaepernick’s abilities.
Prediction: Round 2 to Tennessee Titans
6. Andy Dalton, TCU
5 of 10
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 215 lbs
Career Stats: 10,314 yards, 71 touchdowns, 30 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.87
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—29.5
Broad Jump—106.0
3-Cone Drill—6.93
20-yard Shuttle—4.27
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Andy Dalton is a proven winner who has solid arm strength and accuracy. He will translate well in the NFL and lands on a team in rebuilding mode. He is a hot commodity heading into the draft and could even be selected late in the first round. I believe the tail-end teams are just fine with their quarterbacks, which will allow Dalton to fall to a team on the rise following this draft.
This team’s defense will be much improved and will boast a better running game in 2011 as well. The receivers stepped up big-time last year, but more importantly, Dalton will learn from an emerging veteran.
Prediction: Round 2 to Denver Broncos
5. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
6 of 10
Height: 6’7”
Weight: 253 lbs
Career Stats: 8,388 yards, 69 touchdowns, 24 interceptions
40-yard Dash—N/A
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—24.0
Broad Jump—103.0
3-Cone Drill—N/A
20-yard Shuttle—N/A
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Ryan Mallett’s draft stock has fluctuated throughout the draft process and could inch back into the first round on draft day. Although I don’t condone the pick, I believe he will be selected early in the second round.
He has off-field concerns but his destined organization never seems to care about any of those issues. He has the strong arm necessary to beat the cold and winter weather mix. In this division, the quarterback needs to be able to take a pounding, and Mallett’s towering stature will fool teams into thinking he is just about indestructible.
Prediction: Round 2 to the Cincinnati Bengals
4. Christian Ponder, Florida State
7 of 10
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 229 lbs
Career Stats: 6,872 yards, 49 touchdowns, 30 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.65
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—34.0
Broad Jump—116.0
3-Cone Drill—6.85
20-yard Shuttle—4.09
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Christian Ponder may actually be the most NFL-ready quarterback heading into the draft. He does have durability concerns, but he has the arm strength, accuracy and leadership qualities to become a winner. He lands in a great destination where he can learn from a fantastic quarterback guru and wait his turn behind a veteran quarterback who had a fine season last year.
Should things heads south during the season, he could step in and become a spark plug in the middle or tail end of the year.
He joins a team with two very good running backs and one of the league’s top young wide receivers.
Prediction: Round 2 to Buffalo Bills
3. Jake Locker, Washington
8 of 10
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 231 lbs
Career Stats: 7,693 yards, 53 touchdowns, 45 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.59
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—35.0
Broad Jump—120.0
3-Cone Drill—6.77
20-yard Shuttle—4.12
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Jake Locker cost himself a lot of money by staying in college last year as he was expected to rival Sam Bradford for the No. 1 overall selection last year. Now, we’re going to see him fall in the draft a la Matt Leinart, but not as far as Aaron Rodgers did.
He has the physical tools to play the position but does need to work on his accuracy. Luckily, he’ll land with a head coach in Mike Shanahan who will be able to put Locker in prime position to succeed. He’ll be able to roll out and use his athleticism to his advantage in Shanahan’s system. A great destination for Jake.
Prediction: Round 1 to Washington Redskins
2. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
9 of 10
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 234 lbs
Career Stats: 6,822 yards, 40 touchdowns, 18 interceptions
40-yard Dash—4.62
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—33.5
Broad Jump—120.0
3-Cone Drill—6.84
20-yard Shuttle—4.26
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Blaine Gabbert appears to have all of the tools and intangibles necessary to become a successful, winning quarterback. Teams will look for him to have a Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford-type of impact immediately in his rookie season.
He has solid field vision and accuracy, which as we saw from Bradford in 2010, is the key to starting your career off on the right track.
Gabbert is expected to go anywhere in the top 10, even top five. Should he land in Carolina, Arizona or Cincinnati, he will at least have a great wide receiver to toss the rock to on any given play.
Steve Smith and Chad Ochocinco are great veterans heading towards the downside of their careers. There is only one perfect fit for Gabbert and one team who desperately needs his services…
Prediction: Round 1 to Arizona Cardinals
1. Cam Newton, Auburn
10 of 10
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 248 lbs
Career Passing Stats: 2,908 yards, 30 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
Career Rushing Stats: 1,586 yards, 24 touchdowns
40-yard Dash—4.59
Bench Press—N/A
Vertical Jump—34.0
Broad Jump—126.0
3-Cone Drill—6.92
20-yard Shuttle—4.18
60-yard Shuttle—N/A
Cam Newton put together one of the greatest college seasons of all time. He was simply terrific and clearly has the talent to be a superstar in the NFL.
He does have some character concerns—but they should be overlooked with his playmaking ability. Accuracy will be his biggest question mark, but his ability to will and lead his teammates and pound the rock will lead to great success at the professional level.
Newton is the type of franchise-changing player organizations seek at the top of the draft, because we know people want to see him play. We know he will put the butts in the stands and drive ticket and jersey sales.
Prediction: Round 1 to Carolina Panthers
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