2011 NFL Mock Draft: New England Patriots' Final 7-Round Predictions
We are just under four days away from the 2011 NFL draft, to be held at Radio City Music Hall on April 28th. The New England Patriots hold nine selections in the draft, but history would tell us they will end up trading some of those picks.
Whether they use those picks to try and move up, or do what they usually do and acquire more picks by trading down remains to be seen.
I'll take my best crack at matching wits with Belichick in my third and final edition of a comprehensive New England Patriots seven-round mock draft.
Follow Erik Frenz on Twitter @erikfrenz.
Round 1, Pick 17: Trade to Baltimore Ravens for 26th and 58th Picks
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Some people are of the mind set that with so many draft picks, trading down in the first round for more picks is a bad idea. One thing that Belichick loves to do more than anything, though, is to trade. He likes to trade down the board and acquire more picks, while still getting a player he really likes.
It's just their way of creating value.
The Patriots will enter the 2011 NFL draft with a list of a few prospects they really like at pick No. 17, and if none of them are available, they will more than likely trade down.
Round 1, Pick 26: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State
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Height: 6'5"
Weight: 295 pounds
In addition to his strong bloodline (his father is fullback Craig "Ironhead" Heyward) Cameron Heyward is a talented lineman who can get after the quarterback. He played in different spots on a four-man front in Ohio, but could play end in a three-man front and kick inside on passing downs.
The asset that will probably serve him best is his ability to soak up blocks in the running game. This will allow the linebackers behind him to make the plays, as is the M.O. of the 3-4 defense. He's not as explosive as some would like to see but, again, that isn't as big of a deal in 3-4 defensive ends as in 4-3 ends.
One vastly underrated attribute of Heywards is his Patriots mindset. He is a well-spoken, well-mannered person who is a solid teammate and understands putting the team first.
Round 1, Pick 28: Danny Watkins, OG Baylor
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Height: 6'3"
Weight: 310 pounds
A 27-year-old first-round pick makes a lot more sense given the situation the Patriots are in on the offensive line, specifically inside.
At his age, Watkins appears one of the more NFL-ready prospects in the league. If nothing else, his maturity will allow him to make a smooth transition from college to NFL football. With the retirement of Steve Neal and the uncertain contract situation of Logan Mankins, that could be important.
Watkins' versatility makes him a great utility player on the offensive line, and his mean streak makes him a prime candidate for the interior of the Patriots' offensive line.
He has very limited experience with football, only having played for three years. Still, he exhibits sound technique and would be a prime candidate for Dante Scarnecchia to mold into a star.
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Round 2, Pick 1 (33): Trade for 2012 First-Round Pick
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The jump in value from the 89th pick in the draft to a top 32 selection in a two-year stretch will be too great of a prospect for Belichick to pass up on. Who knows what team will be willing to make that transaction, but a team desperate enough to get its hands on a coveted prospect will certainly pick up the phone to dial the Patriots.
This will be one of the most valuable picks in the draft. With an opportunity to re-stack their big boards, teams will have their mind on one or two prospects that they have with a first-round grade that are still left in the draft.
Round 2, Pick 26 (58): Jabaal Sheard, DE/OLB Pittsburgh
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Height: 6'3"
Weight: 264 pounds
This is the second-round pick acquired from the Ravens in the first-round trade of pick No. 17.
Looking at Sheard's height and weight combination is like looking into a shining beacon of light for 3-4 outside linebacker conversion projects.
In that regard, ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss called Sheard one of the most complete conversion prospects in this year's draft. Even more so, he says, than Brooks Reed. His ability to not only rush the passer but also to set the edge will be coveted among 3-4 teams. He also looked fairly natural in coverage drills at the combine.
Of course, what it will all boil down to is his football intelligence and his ability to quickly process information. That's what it usually boils down to with Belichick, and he's a master of measuring both in prospects.
One thing to remember about Sheard, though, is a July 2010 arrest that involved a serious situation with law enforcement. We know how seriously the Patriots and the Krafts take chaacter, and that lone incident might have him already off the Patriots board.
Round 2, Pick 28 (60): James Carpenter, OT Alabama
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Height: 6'5"
Weight: 324 pounds
Football intelligence is always important to the New England Patriots, but with the growing number of 3-4 teams, especially in the AFC East, strength will become a primary component to offensive linemen the Patriots should be targetting.
In that respect, Carpenter brings a finishing edge to the Patriots front line. He may not be the stout run-blocker the Patriots like inside, but could learn those techniques with time, especially with the coaching of Scarnecchia and the veterans.
What's more, he has the all-important Belichick-Saban tie on his side.
Round 3, Pick 10 (74): DeMarco Murray, RB Oklahoma
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Height: 5'11"
Weight: 213 pounds
One would think, with Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the stable, adding a talented running back may not be a worthwhile investment. Still, Green-Ellis is more of a between-the-tackles running back, and while Woodhead is effective, neither bring the speed Murray has once he gets outside.
He figures to contribute mostly in the passing game on check-downs and screens. What's more, he has good awareness and sound technique in pass protection.
The Patriots love that kind of versatility. Oh, did I mention he can run? He certainly has the ability to find daylight and take it home, racking up 63 total touchdowns in his collegiate career.
Round 3, Pick 28 (92): Trade for 2012 2nd-Round Pick
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And just like that, the Patriots have two first-round and two second-round choices in 2012. This puts them in a favorable position for next year, without sacrificing a whole lot.
One aspect I think is overlooked for the Patriots in the 2011 NFL draft is that they have nine picks, and with so many picks, there's no way all those players will make the roster in their first year.
Furthermore, the team only has five picks for next year. Without a whole lot of needs left to fill, the Patriots would be wise to back out of this spot into 2012 and pull off a similar move to what they did last year with Carolina. Who knows, maybe they could end up with the 33rd pick yet again if they find the right trade partner.
Round 4, Pick 28 (125): Jaiquawn Jarrett, FS Temple
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Height: 6'0"
Weight: 198 pounds
Safety may not be a pressing need right now, but it could become one as early as next year. Mike Reiss mentioned at his Q&A at Patriot Place that Brandon Meriweather played in over 80 percent of defensive snaps. There's no indication, in that regard, that Meriweather is falling out of favor with the Patriots. What could happen, though, is that Meriweather could be a victim of free agency. It's not likely the Patriots will pay him what he'll be asking.
Jarrett helped the fledgling Owls rise back to respectability, leading the team with 88 tackles and three interceptions in 2008. With good ball skills, solid tackling, and a head-hunter's mentality, Jarrett can contribute quickly to the Patriots secondary.
Round 5, Pick 28 (159): Chris Matthews, WR Kentucky
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Height: 6'5"
Weight: 219 pounds
Chris Matthews is a unique prospect, especially for such a late-round prospect. With that frame, one would think he'd be higher on people's list. There is some work to do in terms of his technique.
For such a big guy, he doesn't consistently beat press coverage. If he learns how to use his frame in that regard, he could significantly improve. He already knows how to use his frame to win jump balls, though. The Patriots don't necessarily need a receiver who can "stretch the field," they just need a guy who can win a one-on-one matchup. With Brady to throw the ball in a place where only Matthews can get it, the two could be an excellent combination.
Oh, and allow Deion Branch and Wes Welker to teach you something about separation, Mr. Matthews.
Round 6, Pick 28 (193): Craig Marshall, DE/OLB South Florida
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Height: 6'4"
Weight: 265 pounds
Marshall only had four sacks in each of the past two seasons, but he's a big physical guy who looks like he could have an impact as a sub package pass rusher, and may even play some in the base 3-4 later on.
The biggest question marks around him, as they usually are for these hybrid prospects, are whether he has the athleticism to drop into coverage and whether he has the football intelligence to grasp the Patriots complex defensive system.
Still, as mentioned earlier, the sheer fact that the Patriots played more downs in the sub package than in the base defense means Marshall will have the opportunity to put his hand in the dirt as a rookie and probably wouldn't be asked to contribute much to the base defense until later.
He's still a raw prospect, and would require molding into the defense, but he has the size and skill set to warrant a late-round flier.
Conclusion
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This draft follows many trends that the Patriots have created for themselves over the past decade. Belichick trades down to acquire more picks, while still getting players that fit his system. He surely won't be disappointed trading down and still landing Cameron Heyward, a projected three-down contributor at defensive end in the 3-4.
Belichick also acquires more picks for 2012. With only five picks for next year, Belichick will likely try to add picks for next year. It's his way of staying on top of the competition when draft time comes next year.
He also acquires players who mostly come from big schools. Players like Heyward, James Carpenter and DeMarco Murray have experience against more talented competition, and will likely have an easier transition to the NFL.
All in all, this looks like a very solid draft that addresses needs with talented players that fit the system.
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