AccuScore gives Sox the edge

Evan Brunell@evanbrunellFeatured ColumnistOctober 9, 2008

What in the name of Mike Benjamin is AccuScore?

Straight from the horse’s mouth:

AccuScore Forecasts are generated by an unbiased, unemotional and powerhouse super-computer that carefully models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions (environment and opponent characteristics). Once the models are made, games are simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times. The averages of all these simulations are used to generate the AccuScore Game Forecast.

Okay, so what’s their forecast for the ALCS?

Rays Win %47%54%50%43%47%44%50%48%
Red Sox Win %53%46%50%57%53%56%50%52%

AccuScore simulations give Boston the slight edge in the series. The Red Sox are 53 percent favorites to reach their second consecutive World Series, and third in the last five seasons. Tampa won the division with two more wins in the regular season than Boston. The Rays also played incredibly well at home (57-24) and will have home-field advantage hosting four of the seven games at Tropicana Field. Both teams played under .500 on the road. Despite not having homefield, the Red Sox still hold the position as favorites.

Great, we’re going to win right?

I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it. Look, I know every writer for Fire Brand, present company included, picked the Sox in six. Probably because it sounds cool when you say it out loud, I don’t know. Just don’t expect the Rays to go all Kimbo Slice on us; they won the AL East for a reason, and they are in the ALCS for a reason. They are a good team.

To read the entire AccuScore forecast, click here. Just don’t get too excited, these same “experts” gave the Angels a 64% chance of winning in the first round.