MLB Predictions 2011: Ranking All 30 Teams' Chances To Win the World Series
The time for questions is over. Throughout the offseason, that's all we did. Can this team do this? Will that team be able to do that? With each team having completed its opening series, we can get a pretty good idea of what the season will hold for each major league team. Of course, there will always be questions. Can the Philadelphia Phillies continue putting runs on the board, sans Chase Utley and Jayson Werth? Will the Boston Red Sox pitching staff rebound?
In time, those questions will be answered. However, we're an impatient people. We can't wait that long. For that reason alone, let's look forward. In this slideshow, I'll be ranking every team in baseball's chances of capturing a World Series title this season. Will an obvious favorite, like the Phillies or Red Sox, come out on top, or will a dark horse surprise the baseball community?
Let's set some parameters here.
These rankings aren't going to be the same as the Power Rankings that I released a few weeks ago. In those rankings, I took a look at every team on paper and determined its positioning among its peers. These rankings will be a bit different.
Winning a World Series isn't a simple task. There are a lot of roadblocks and challenges throughout the regular season. For example, the road to October is stacked heavily against the Red Sox, who'll need to take care of the New York Yankees, resurgent Baltimore Orioles and pesky teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays if they even want to make it to the postseason. On the other hand, the Phillies play in a considerably weaker division. Their road may be a bit more simplistic.
In short, a team's chances of winning a World Series have no direct relationship with how good it is. There are a lot of factors teams must deal with before even making it to the postseason, and that in the long run, could determine their October fates.
So without further ado, let's begin. Each slide will feature a percentage of the team's chances of making the playoffs, followed by a brief description of its spot in the ranking.
30. Kansas City Royals
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To be honest, I really wanted to give the Royals a zero-percent chance, but I suppose anything is possible over the course of 162 games.
The Royals problem is twofold—they're weak on both sides of the ball, and that certainly isn't the key to success. Looking at their offense, they're going to struggle this season. General manager Dayton Moore signed a few stopgaps this offseason to hold down roster spots until some of their younger guys are ready, like Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera, but in the long run, they'll make little difference.
Their pitching staff is absolutely abysmal. Despite some encouraging performances to open the season, you aren't going to make any noise with a pitching rotation anchored by Luke Hochevar. Outside of Joakim Soria and Tim Collins, who's turned a few heads this spring, the Royals don't have much to offer this season.
But fear not, Royals' fans. The cavalry is on the way.
29. Cleveland Indians
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Personally, I have little faith in the Indians this season. They showed against the Chicago White Sox this weekend that their pitching staff is going to get lit up all season, despite scoring some runs of their own. That said, if all goes according to plan, this should be a rebuilding season for the Tribe.
They do have some interesting talents offensively. Catcher Carlos Santana is going to stick around for a long while and be a productive major league player, and if Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are able to stay healthy, the Indians will have a few guys who can make some noise. More than likely, however, if those guys are healthy, they'll be moved for prospects at the trade deadline.
That pitching staff doesn't inspire much confidence either. The rotation of Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco and Justin Masterson was all but exploited this weekend, and with Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot rounding out the starting five, I don't see much room for improvement. Combine that with a mediocre bullpen, at best, and you're asking for trouble.
If the prospects that the Tribe have acquired for players like Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia don't begin to show signs of life soon, the Indians as a whole could be in serious trouble.
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
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I actually like what the Pirates are doing, so I'm cautiously optimistic about their chances in the NL Central this year, and firmly believe that they can finish above teams like the Houston Astros, and maybe even the Chicago Cubs. That said, they're still years away from World Series contention.
The first thing that they'll need to do is produce pitching, and they got off on the right foot in last year's draft by drafting guys like Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie. If they had any common sense, they'd continue to build their pitching stock up in this June's draft. The current staff is looking quite bleak, however. There is some potential in the rotation in the likes of Charlie Morton and James McDonald, but not much, and an even smaller amount outside of those two. It's not hard to like a couple of hard-throwing guys like Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan in the bullpen, but that's about all that 'pen has to offer.
I think their offense is coming along nicely. A couple of years from now, when they're ready to bring some talented pitchers up to the big club, guys like Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, Garret Jones and Jose Tabata should be able to provide them with some runs.
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27. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Even without Mark Reynolds, the Diamondbacks have plenty of guys who can leave the ballpark in a hurry. But since I'm of the old school of thought that pitching and defense wins championships, I'm not particularly fond of the D-backs chances under manager Kirk Gibson.
Up and down the lineup, the D-backs have power. They'll field a lineup with guys like Chris Young, Justin Upton and Stephen Drew that can hurt you several ways offensively. However, they're a couple of pieces away from fielding a contending club.
New general manager Kevin Towers has his work cut out for him as he attempts to rebuild this team's pitching staff. After losing Brandon Webb to free agency and Dan Haren in a trade last season, there aren't any big names on that staff. The rotation is anchored by young Ian Kennedy, and while he and Daniel Hudson can be quality pitchers on a contending club, the D-backs are going to need to add a few more quality pitchers to push themselves over the top, especially in the bullpen.
26. Houston Astros
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My faith in the Astros is fleeting quickly. Their season-opening series against the Philadelphia Phillies really exposed holes in their roster that I'm not sure they can fix in time to save this season, and after reading some interesting quotes from a numbers of scouts, they aren't so sure either.
Outside of a quality start from Brett Myers, the pitching was dreadful this past weekend. Both Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris faltered thanks to lack of command, and if they can't straighten things out quickly, the Astros could find themselves at the bottom of the NL Central. Their shoddy bullpen was also exposed, as the Phils' exposed their closer, Brandon Lyon, and other core parts of their bullpen.
Offensively, this team does have talent. They have good role players, like a speedy leadoff hitter in Michael Bourn, and a middle-of-the-order power threat in Carlos Lee. In my estimation, what they really need is time to let some of their young hitters, like Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace, develop and realize their potential.
25. Tampa Bay Rays
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I'm sure this placement will cause a bit of a stir, but anyone who watched the Rays' first weekend has to be somewhat concerned. Heading into the season, it was obvious that they'd need to find ways to replace losses in their bullpen and lineup, and it's painfully obvious that they haven't done that.
Over the offseason, some people, myself included, believed that the Rays would be able to get some young talent into their lineup and in the back of the bullpen and still be competitive. Now, I'm not so sure. It's impossible to replace impact players like Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford in your lineup with guys like Dan Johnson and Johnny Damon and remain an elite contender. Even with Manny Ramirez on board, I have little faith in the Rays offense.
A couple of weeks ago, I thought that their pitching would carry them through the season, but that may have been a little too much to ask for. With virtually no bullpen, they're putting an extreme amount of stress on their starting rotation, and outside of David Price, their young pitchers are going through an adjustment period.
24. Baltimore Orioles
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Early in the season, the Orioles have that "feel-good" story written all over them, but I won't get ahead of myself. Though the Baltimore Showalters, as they've jokingly been called, are off to a hot start, they play in the toughest division in baseball and have a long way to go.
Despite pitching being the story out of Baltimore early in the season, this team is going to make its living off of its offense. The Orioles brought in several good veterans in Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy and Vladimir Guerrero to complement a couple of rising stars, and this lineup has the potential to make some noise.
It's the pitching staff that concerns me. While they have plenty of talent, they also have plenty of young, inconsistent arms. If they want to have any chance of reaching postseason baseball, they'll need some of their younger arms to excel, as well as veteran guys like Kevin Gregg and Justin Duchscherer to have consistent, and relatively healthy, seasons.
23. Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners are ranked ahead of the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays for no other reason than the fact that they don't have to play in the AL East. If they did have to play in that division, they'd probably be ranked right around No. 30.
The Mariners are a good defensive team, but they're going to have to start hitting at some point if they want to make any noise. A lot of players the team acquired at various points during last season, be they Milton Bradley, Chone Figgins or Justin Smoak, need to start swinging the bat and having some success.
The starting rotation has the potential to be a pleasant surprise this season. They're led by the reigning AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez, and have some arms with upside in the likes of Erik Bedard and Michael Pineda. It's the bullpen that will be a cause for concern, especially with closer David Aardsma on the disabled list recovering from offseason hip surgery.
22. Washington Nationals
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The Nationals play in the easier league and an easier division, so they'll move up the list a little bit—but not by much. The NL East isn't going to be a cakewalk and the Nats simply don't have the pitching to make a postseason run.
Offensively, they have guys that can make a bit of noise, despite losing Adam Dunn to free agency. Of course, they brought in Jayson Werth to play right field, but they've also gotten some pleasant surprises in the likes of Mike Morse and Danny Espinosa, and have other nice offensive pieces like perennial All-Star Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche.
Like I said, it's the pitching that's going to hold them back this season. Any staff that is anchored by Livan Hernandez is in trouble. Jordan Zimmerman has the greatest potential in the current rotation, but that staff won't be making any noise until Stephen Strasburg is ready to throw again. That said, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard could be nice bullpen options this season and in years to come.
21. New York Mets
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The Mets have the potential to be a good team, but they also have a ton of question marks which will keep them relegated to the bottom half of this list.
If they can get healthy and stay healthy, the Mets will have some big names in their lineup. There simply is no reason that a lineup featuring Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Jose Reyes can't score runs. However, health has been an issue, and if those guys are unable to go for a good part of the season, things could snowball on the team, and quickly.
From a pitching standpoint, the rotation is looking weak with Johan Santana on the disabled list. R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, Mike Pelfrey and Jonathan Niese are an interesting cast of characters, but they've been inconsistent and injured in recent seasons—that's not a good mix. In the bullpen, Francisco Rodriguez's contract will keep him out of a lot of save situations, and behind him, the Mets have a lot of questions.
I could see them making some noise, but not much.
20. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
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I have little faith in the Angels, and it's disappearing by the day. Over the offseason, I thought it was painfully obvious that they needed to sign at least two of the players from a group including Adrian Beltre, Rafael Soriano and Carl Crawford, and after signing none, their season was already in doubt.
The front-three starters in their rotation are easily the most impressive things about this club. The trio of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana should combine to form a formidable threesome this season, but the back-two starters, Joel Pineiro and Scott Kazmir, have a long way to go. The bullpen also has plenty of question marks, culminating with closer—Fernando Rodney lost his job to young reliever Jordan Waldon.
Offensively, the Angels are probably going to have to spin a few deals at the trade deadline if they want to get into the postseason. They have obvious holes at several positions around the diamond, and made questionable decisions in the offseason, highlighted by the trade for Vernon Wells. They'll receive a boost when Kendrys Morales returns to the lineup, but other than that, it's going to be a long season for the Halos.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
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It certainly isn't the level of talent on this club that pushes it down so low—it's the division. If the Blue Jays played in any other division in baseball, they'd probably be one of the favorites. However, in a division where you have to play teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox 18 times apiece...it just isn't fair.
Led by Ricky Romero, the Jays have a ton of talent in their starting rotation. Kyle Drabek has all the potential in the world, and if all goes according to plan, he should be a leading candidate for the AL Rookie of the Year Award all season long. If the veterans in their bullpen, including Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch, can finish off games, the Jays could be a pleasant surprise.
The Jays also have a ton of power throughout their lineup. Though he probably won't hit 50-plus home runs again, Jose Bautista is certainly a menacing threat in the middle of that order. When you toss in a few more good batters like Travis Snider, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar, it's not hard to tell that the Jays have something cooking.
18. Chicago Cubs
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Could this finally be the season for the Cubs?
Probably not. Looking over their lineup, I don't see anything special, and they're going to encounter some tough pitching this season. Outside of Starlin Castro, there aren't many bright spots for the Cubbies. Carlos Pena should provide some power this season, but they'll need more than that, and struggling, aging stars like Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Aramis Ramirez aren't going to put them over the top.
Their rotation is surprisingly deep though. Even after trading Tom Gorzelanny to the Washington Nationals in the offseason and releasing Carlos Silva before the season, the Cubs will field five good pitchers, led by staff ace Ryan Dempster. If Carlos Marmol can hone his control and Kerry Wood can stay healthy in the bullpen, the Cubs could be tough to hit this season.
17. Florida Marlins
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The Marlins are probably a dark horse to make the postseason this year, and they have the talent to make some noise, but their play as of late hasn't been very awe-inspiring.
They certainly have a ton of talented offensive players. With the addition of John Buck this offseason, the Marlins added to a lineup that features a ton of promising, young players like Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez.
Of course, the question in regards to the Fish all along was whether or not their pitching would be able to hold up. At first glance, they have a very strong, deep staff, led by Josh Johnson. However, a lot of scouts believe that Javy Vasquez is all but washed-up, so if the Marlins are going to contend, they'll need big performances out of guys like Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Volstad.
However, if the revamped bullpen featuring young guns like Leo Nunez, Mike Dunn and Ryan Webb can make strides this season, the Marlins could contend with any team.
16. San Diego Padres
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They lost Adrian Gonzalez. They traded away several pieces of their bullpen. Their ace is opening the season on the disabled list. Still, I like what Jed Hoyer has done with the Padres. Pitching and defense win championships, and the Padres play in the perfect ballpark and have assembled a good team to do just that.
Losing Gonzalez and replacing him with guys like Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu seems crushing at first glance, and it is. However, when you look at the Padres lineup, you have to look at it as a whole. They've completely revamped their infield, adding veteran guys like Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett to complement a strong third baseman in Chase Headley. As long as Ryan Ludwick provides some thump in the outfield, the Pads should be okay.
From a pitching standpoint, you can only hope that a lot of these guys won't go through a sophomore slump. Aaron Harang should provide a veteran presence, and the Padres have a lot of talent in guys like Tim Stauffer, Mat Latos and Clayton Richard. Oh, and they also have Heath Bell at the back of a very good bullpen.
15. St. Louis Cardinals
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In my opinion, any team that has an offense led by Albert Pujols and a rotation led by Chris Carpenter has a chance to win the World Series. That said, the Cardinals have a lot of work to do if they want to make that dream come true.
Even with Adam Wainwright shut down for the season, the Cards have a strong starting five. Led by Carpenter, Jaime Garcia looks to follow up on a strong rookie campaign, and veteran starters like Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse should make this a strong rotation. The biggest concern, from a pitching standpoint, has to be the bullpen, but the Cardinals have a lot of veteran arms out there and could see a big season out of Jason Motte.
Offensively, you have to think that the Cardinals will go as far as Pujols will take them. He'll be accompanied/protected by Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman in the lineup, and the team should get a good deal of production out of Colby Rasmus and David Freese, but Pujols holds the key.
14. Detroit Tigers
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A lot of people like the Tigers a lot, but I'm not as big a fan as some people around baseball, and personally, I think they're still just the third-best team in that division.
Though their starting staff has struggled a bit in the first go-around, it should be good during the regular season. Led by Justin Verlander, the Tigers have a good mix of young guns and veterans that should be able to win them some games. With more than a few hard-throwers in the back of their bullpen, the Tigers have a strong staff.
Much like the St. Louis Cardinals with Albert Pujols, one would imagine that the Tigers will go as far as Miguel Cabrera takes them. They'll need him to have an MVP-caliber season, and they'll need to receive above-average performances out of their surrounding cast, including Magglio Ordonez, Victor Martinez and Austin Jackson, if they want to put up a fight against the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins.
13. Colorado Rockies
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Last season, the world champions came out of the NL West, and that could very well be the case again this season. However, it won't be the Colorado Rockies.
They have the hitting to get themselves into postseason play. Despite Coors Field once again being a huge factor in some of their inflated numbers, guys like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are the real deal. The real question is whether or not they can get hitting from their supporting cast, and that is yet to be seen.
The pitching on this team is a bit of a concern for me. Ubaldo Jimenez really slowed down at the end of last season, and his 2011 campaign has started in much the same fashion. If they can't depend on him, who can they depend on? The remaining starters in the rotation—Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin, Jason Hammel and Esmil Rodgers/Aaron Cook—don't exactly instill fear in the opponent.
They'll need their rotation pitching into the middle innings of games so that they can hand the ball to a strong bullpen consisting of Matt Lindstrom, Rafael Betancourt and Houston Street—all of whom must stay healthy to be effective.
12. Minnesota Twins
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Outside of an inability to get past the New York Yankees in the divisional series in the last few years, the Twins aren't higher on this list because I'm not sure that they have the pitching to take them through October and capture a World Series.
The hitting is going to be there. If Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau can stay healthy for the entire season, look out—even in that beautiful, new, spacious ballpark in Minnesota. Guys like Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Jim Thome really stepped things up last season to give the Twins a formidable lineup in a tough AL Central.
Their pitching staff isn't as awe-inspiring. After Francisco Liriano, there isn't much to be confident about in that starting rotation, and anyone that thinks Carl Pavano is an "ace" needs a reality check. Having to move Kevin Slowey to the bullpen makes it seem like the Twins have depth, and they do, but it isn't quality depth. You can run any one of Nick Blackburn, Sean Baker, Scott Duensing and Slowey out there and get about the same performance (which isn't great).
Looking at the bullpen, getting Joe Nathan back and keeping him healthy may be the key to the season. For that reason alone, Matt Capps should see a lot of work out of the bullpen this season. They lost a lot of key pieces from last season's 'pen, however, and outside of those two aforementioned guys, there aren't many reliable arms out there.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers
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A lot of people were ready to write the Dodgers off after watching the San Francisco Giants take home the World Series last season, but not I. Even with their financial questions, I like what the Dodgers have done in terms of adding pitching depth and key role players. This could be a nice season for the guys in blue.
When you talk about that pitching depth, it's already coming into play early in the season. After a rough spring training, the Dodgers had to open the season with Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland on the disabled list, but I wouldn't be worried. They still have four quality starters in Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda, and when the first two guys return, they'll have a tough starter on the hill every five (or six) days.
The bullpen could be a bit of a question mark, but not because they don't have good arms out there. When he's consistent, Jonathan Broxton is one of the best closers in the game, and they have a couple of good situational arms in Hong-Chih Kuo and Matt Guerrier.
They may not have the most thunderous lineup in the National League, but they can string some runs together, especially if Matt Kemp's early-season success continues. They have one of the best outfielders in the game in Andre Ethier, and good bats in guys like Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames and James Loney.
10. Oakland Athletics
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Yes, the Texas Rangers are off to a torrid start and are favorites to win this division, but the A's have plenty of talent and pitching to make some noise this season, and could surprise teams as they contend for the AL West, or the Wild Card, at the very least.
Hands down, they have one of the best rotations in baseball. They have a ton of young arms who are developing quickly at the major league level and are looking to improve off of a strong 2010 season, not to mention plenty of depth in the minor leagues. They'll be led by Trevor Cahill, and he'll be followed by a supporting cast of Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Brandon McCarthy.
The bullpen has the potential to shut the opposition down late in ballgames, even with closer Andrew Bailey opening the season on the disabled list. They have a couple of strong veterans, like Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour, as well as a few young arms that could be impressive this season.
All along, we knew that it was the offense that really had to step its game up, and Billy Beane went out and picked up a few guys to help do that. Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus should go a long way in providing some support for rising star Daric Barton, as well as the annually underrated second baseman, Mark Ellis.
9. Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox are one of the scariest teams in baseball this season, make no mistake about it. If this were a power ranking, they'd be soaring towards the top, but I think a couple of equally talented teams have easier schedules, and thus, the White Sox make the list at No. 9.
If there is anything that's obvious about this team, it's that they can flat-out mash the baseball. Led by slugger Adam Dunn, they have plenty of guys that can leave the yard in a hurry, including Paul Konerko, Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios and Juan Pierre (I'm kidding, I'm kidding.) If the rest of the lineup can get on base in front of these sluggers, look out.
The pitching staff is equally strong, and can throw a fastball by you with the best of them. The White Sox have an incredibly deep starting five, led by Mark Buehrle, that includes All-Star-caliber players like Jake Peavy, Edwin Jackson, John Danks and Gavin Floyd.
Out in the bullpen, one guy after another can knock your block off with a fastball. With Bobby Jenks in Boston, Matt Thornton takes over the role of closer, and guys like Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, Will Ohman and Chris Sale should get the ball to him without much of a problem.
8. Milwaukee Brewers
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A lot of people seem to be on the fence about the Brewers, but in my opinion, they're sort of like the Chicago White Sox of the National League. They don't have the same caliber bullpen, but they do have a starting rotation with the potential to hang some zeroes on the board and a starting lineup that can go yard with the best of them. They shouldn't have much problem making their way through the National League—or should they?
You have to think that if the Brewers can survive April, they'll be okay through the rest of the season. Through two starts, Yovani Gallardo has shown why he's the real deal, and with Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf following, the Brew Crew have a very solid rotation. Of course, fans are also patiently awaiting the debut of Zack Greinke, who opened the season on the disabled list and will provide an instant boost the moment he toes the hill.
The bullpen will be a bit more of a question mark, but there are good relievers out there for the later innings. Along with John Axford, who really broke out last season, the Brewers added proven veteran Takashi Saito over the offseason, who should provide some leadership and be a good example for the plethora of young arms in the bullpen.
The lineup speaks for itself. If runners can get on base at the top of the order, the middle is going to be an absolute nightmare to face. Not only do you have to worry about Prince Fielder, but also a healthy Ryan Braun, Casey McGehee—who has really made a name for himself—and one of the best offensive second basemen in baseball in Rickie Weeks.
With arguably the best lineup in the NL Central and (arguably, of course) the best one-two punch in baseball, the Brew Crew could make some real noise in postseason play.
7. Cincinnati Reds
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Of course, if the Milwaukee Brewers are going to make any noise in the NL Central and beyond this season, they're going to have to get past a tough Reds club that is talented and more experienced than last season.
Frankly, there is a lot to like about this Reds team, but what I like most is the amount of quality starting pitchers on this club. They may not have a bona fide ace, but they have plenty of guys that can keep a good lineup in the game. They'll open the season with a five-man rotation of Edinson Volquez, Tim Wood, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake and Sam LeCure, but that's far from where their depth ends. A couple of key cogs in last year's club, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, will open the season on the disabled list.
Of course, if those guys can get through seven innings, there is a good chance the Reds are going to win the game. Along with a number of talented arms out in the bullpen, their setup man and closer—Aroldis Chapman and Francisco Cordero, respectively—are second to none.
Anchored by reigning NL MVP Joey Votto, the Reds have a lineup that can string some runs together in a hurry. Along with a good mix of veterans that features names like Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have prominent young talent in the likes of Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs.
6. Atlanta Braves
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The Braves are a lot like the Cincinnati Reds before them in that they have a ton of starting pitching and a good lineup. However, the thing that separates the two, in my mind, is the strength of the Braves bullpen.
The addition of Dan Uggla only makes this lineup better, and he'll join a bunch of guys who can hurt you in multiple ways. With Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Martin Prado and Jason Heyward, there are very few holes in this lineup.
Even with Jair Jurrjens opening the season on the disabled list, the starting rotation is equally deep. Along with veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe, the Braves have a good amount of young arms like Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor. Of course, the best starter on that staff may be Tommy Hanson, and we haven't even mentioned Rodrigo Lopez, who is currently pitching in Triple-A and has major league experience.
If you had to finger a weak spot, I guess you would point towards the bullpen, but even that isn't much of a weak spot. Though the Braves have a ton of young arms out there, new closer Craig Kimbrel has shown through the first week that he doesn't care about how old he is, and his left-handed teammate, Jonny Venters, is equally talented.
5. Texas Rangers
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Yes, the Rangers have mashed their way to a perfect start and, to some excited fans, are easy favorites to win the World Series, but hold your horses. The Rangers are a major threat out of the AL West, but pitching concerns limit them to No. 5 on my list.
Like I said, the Rangers are going to hit. There's no doubt about that. When you talk about not having any holes in your lineup, take a look at the Rangers. I dare you not to approach guys like Mitch Moreland and Yorvit Torrealba with caution. I dare you. In all seriousness, along with reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton, opposing pitchers will have to make their way through Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young, among others. That's no simple task.
I still find their pitching staff questionable heading into the season though. Like the Reds, they don't have that bona fide ace, or the "stopper" that a lot of World Series teams often feature, but they do have a lot of good, young arms. They'll start the season with a rotation of C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and Derek Holland, but that will change when guys like Brandon Webb, Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter are ready to go.
The bullpen figures to be a bit more solid. They have one of the best young closers in baseball in Neftali Feliz, and plenty of veteran arms that have postseason experience, including Arthur Rhodes and Darren Oliver.
4. New York Yankees
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There are a lot of people around the game of baseball that aren't big fans of the Yankees rotation (I'm one of them), and that's understandable. At the same time, this is the type of club that forces you to look at the entire picture. When I finish my explanation, you'll see why the Yanks always have a chance to win.
The rotation is ugly. There's no doubt about that. After CC Sabathia, there isn't much security. A.J. Burnett's struggles have been well documented, and there is much more to Phil Hughes than the 18 wins he secured last season. Ivan Nova looks good, and Freddy Garcia is a proven major league starter, but there are a ton of question marks in this rotation.
That said, they have the best bullpen in baseball. If their starters can get through six innings, there is a good chance the game is over. When fully healthy, they'll feature names like Pedro Feliciano, Joba Chamberlain, Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera—four guys with filthy stuff out of the bullpen.
Of course, it's that lineup that is going to be the breadwinner. Say what you want about Derek Jeter's decline; he isn't the only guy the Yankees can count on. Along with a healthy Alex Rodriguez, the Yanks have guys that can mash from top to bottom.
3. Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox losing streak may have opened a few eyes to some of the holes in their roster, but worry not, Chicken Little, the sky is not falling. They're still arguably the best team in baseball, and the only reason they're No. 3 on this list is because they may have a tougher time getting to the Fall Classic than others.
Offensively, they'll need some of their new additions to start swinging the bats. Adjusting to a new club can be tough, but when Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez get going, their just is no stopping them. Combine them with guys like Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkillis, and you can see why the Red Sox can be a nightmare to face.
The bullpen is going to be equally tough when it gets rolling. The Red Sox have arguably three of the best relievers in baseball in Daniel Bard, Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon, all of whom can be closers.
The starting rotation harbors the majority of this team's question marks. With uncertainty surrounding Josh Beckett and John Lackey, the one thing that Red Sox Nation didn't want to see was Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz struggle, but I wouldn't put too much stock in that. This team will be just fine.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Now seems like a good time to introduce the defending world champions, the San Francisco Giants.
We all know about the strength of this pitching staff. There are four very good starters at the top of this rotation—Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. Following those guys, Barry Zito is the type of guy that can give you a quality start from time to time, and he forced Jeff Suppan, a quality major league starter, right out of San Francisco.
You're not going to catch a break with this pitching staff. Once you get through that day's starter, you're going to have to face one of the league's toughest bullpens, anchored by one of the league's toughest closers, Brian Wilson.
However, my concern about this team is the same as last season—will it be able to score enough runs? The Giants will need to make a roster spot available soon for Cody Ross, and that may spell the end of Brandon Belt's early-season feel-good story, since the Aubrey Huff-outfield experiment clearly isn't working. There are definitely a few threats in that lineup, led by Buster Posey, but can they produce?
Of course, I said they wouldn't be able to last season, and though they didn't for most of the season, they still won the World Series.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
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Go ahead, get it out of your system. I can hear it already. "You're such a homer, Greg!" "This guy is a Phillies fan! That's the only reason he put them at No. 1!" In all seriousness, at least give me an opportunity to explain before you attempt to destroy my feelings.
So much has been made about this rotation that watching these guys pitch almost seems surreal. As many times as we've talked about them, watching the first go-around felt great (for Phils fans, of course.) Outside of Cole Hamels' start against the Mets, the big four have been every bit as good as advertised, and as the season progresses, they're only going to get better. The rotation speaks for itself.
Even with Brad Lidge on the disabled list, the Phils bullpen is stronger than it seems on paper. They have plenty of guys that can go matchup for matchup and get the Phillies through the later innings, including Ryan Madson and Jose Contrereas, who have emerged as two of the better relievers in the National League.
As for the lineup, well, it has its question marks. However, there is no reason to believe that a lineup with prominent names such as Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez can't string enough runs together to get the starting staff a lead and eventually a win. Let's not forget, at some point this season, they'll also receive a pretty big boost with the return of second baseman Chase Utley.
Bottom line—there is no reason why this team can't steamroll its way through the National League, and if they make it to the postseason, look out.
A Disclaimer, of Sorts...
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I do believe a new disclaimer is in order... (Still in bullet point form, of course.)
- The people have spoken, and my terrible mathematics have disappeared.
- The former numbers were not meant to be a perfect mathematical analysis of each team's chances to win the World Series, and no, I can not give you the winning numbers for tomorrow's lottery.
- This way should have made things a little less confusing.
Thanks for the read and feedback everyone!
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