NL Central: Which Team Will Win the Division in 2011? You'll Be Surprised!
At first glance the N.L. Central would seem to be a two-team race between the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers. Some people add the St. Louis Cardinals to the mix because, well, they're the St. Louis Cardinals. But most analysts seem to agree that it's between the Reds with their combination of speed, power and pitching, and the Brewers, who have one of the top offenses in baseball.
But hold on!
If you take a closer look you'll see that each team in the division has significant weaknesses as well as some hidden strengths, making this a five-team race (sorry, Houston) that could come down to the wire and be one of the most exciting in baseball for the 2011 season.
So now, a look at each team and why they can win and why they won't...
The Cincinnati Reds: Dusty Baker Is Still the Manager
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I believe that the Reds can only go as far as Dusty Baker takes them and it is rarely where expected.
Baker has been the manager of three division-winning teams prior to last season, and only once has the team improved on their record the next season (in 2004 with the Cubs) and they have never repeated. In fact, a Dusty Baker managed team has never made the postseason in consecutive years. The only time he has been to the postseason in consecutive years was '03 with the Cubs after going to the World Series with the Giants in '02.
Why is this?
I think it is due to a number of factors.
The largest is probably the way he handles his pitching staffs. Dusty Baker is notorious for over working his starting pitchers despite their youth (Mark Prior and Kerry Wood in Chicago, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto more recently). And though it would seem that he has been more careful of late (only Volquez has had to have Tommy John surgery as of yet), it is not just being overworked that causes his pitchers problems. On many occasions Baker will leave a pitcher in a game well past the point when his pitcher has clearly lost control.
This is best evidenced in the 2003 NLCS when the Cubs had late leads in Game 6 and Game 7. In each case the starter (Prior in Game 6 and Wood in Game 7) had pitched well, but as the game seemed to get out of hand, Baker never moved to the bullpen. The results are well known with the Marlins putting an eight spot on Prior in the eighth inning of Game 6 and three on Wood in the fifth inning of Game 7.
It is a practice that he has not changed. On more than one occasion last season I watched a one-run deficit become four or five runs because he would leave his pitchers out on the mound when it was clear that they were done. He says that he prefers to let his pitchers get out of the jams they get themselves into and there is a time and place for that. The sixth inning of a game that was close but is now about to get out of hand, isn't it? If a pitcher is going to pitch 240 innings in a season they should be quality innings, not innings that get out of hand. However, Baker's pitchers were forced to toil through because he was letting them "work their way out" of a jam. That is what the bullpen is for.
His working of pitchers has cost Dusty Baker much throughout his career. It cost a World Series in '02 (just watch Game 6) and a trip to the World Series at least in '03.
But will it cost the Reds in '11?
St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols' Contract...or Lack Thereof
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The biggest concern among the experts for the St. Louis Cardinals is the lack of healthy pitching arms. Adam Wainwright is done for the season due to Tommy John surgery, there are questions about Chris Carpenter's health and there is a lack of major league pitching depth.
But that is all nonsense.
Dave Duncan is easily the best pitching coach in all of MLB and he knows how to maximize the talents of any pitcher you trot out there. Add to that Tony LaRussa is easily a top five manager who knows how to utilize a bullpen and rotation properly and their pitching should be fine. Not great, mind you, but well enough to work for that offense.
No, their problem will be the distraction caused by Albert Pujols not having a contract.
It is not uncommon for players in today's day and age to say that they don't want to discuss contracts during the season and that there will be no negotiations during the season because they don't want to be a distraction.
That works for some players, but not for someone like Pujols.
Albert Pujols is the St. Louis Cardinals. He is the best hitter in baseball by far, a guy who makes every other hitter in the lineup better and not just the guys hitting before him or after him. Opposing pitchers throw differently to the No. 7 hitter on the St. Louis Cardinals than they do any other No. 7 hitter in baseball because they know that Pujols is five guys away from coming to the plate. Think I'm joking? I'm not. No other player affects his team like Pujols, and if you think that it's not on the minds of every player on that team that Pujols may be gone in 2012, you would be wrong.
It will be discussed in every city he goes to,and every team that thinks they have a shot at acquiring him will put on the full court press. It is going to be on everybody's mind and it will actually cause more of a distraction than if he allowed the Cardinals and his agent to continue negotiating throughout the season.
But is it enough to keep the Cardinals from winning the division?
Milwaukee Brewers: Small Market Team Means Small Market Wallet
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Lost in all of the Albert Pujols free agency buzz is that Prince Fielder is also entering his final year before free agency, and he is on pace to shatter the contract record for first basemen. Having given Ryan Braun and Corey Hart huge contract extensions, and facing an extension for Zach Greinke (whom they just gave up many talented prospects to acquire) after next season and then Yovani Gallardo a few years later, can the Brewers afford to break the bank for Fielder?
To this point I don't believe that Brewers GM Doug Melvin intends to trade Fielder at any point, but you have to wonder if his stance on that could change if the Brewers find themselves five to 10 games out of the division or Wild Card come July. Add to that the fact that most teams don't want to give up a large number of prospects to get a guy that may not resign with them and moving him is most likely not going to happen.
BUT...
If a move can be made, Melvin will make it. As they find themselves slipping further and further out of contention it will become increasingly likely that Fielder could be on the move.
If the Brewers can't whether the storm until Greinke gets back from injury (yes, they said three starts, but cracked ribs are funny and then you factor in all the missed time in spring training and it could be almost June before he is really ready), and they fall behind too much early the season, the Brewers could tumble and Fielder may get shipped out.
Chicago Cubs: They're Young, They Didn't Hire Ryno and They're the Cubs
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At first, the 2011 season seemed to be a throwaway season for the Cubs. Ownership made it clear that there would be no increase in payroll; management made a further commitment to the prospects in the minors instead of attempting to replace positions from outside the organization; Jim Hendry hired Mike Quade to replace Lou Piniella instead of Ryne Sandberg; they signed a one-year stop gap to man first base (Carlos Pena) until the big first baseman free agent bonanza of 2012; and longtime pitching coach Larry Rothschild moved on to the Yankees organization.
But they also refused to move veterans Kosuke Fukudome and Aramis Ramirez—though I am told that the Cubs had multiple offers for both (maybe not good ones, but still)—and then they added Matt Garza via trade from the Tampa Bay Rays. If you look at it a little closer you see that this team may just be more than meets the eye.
Carlos Zambrano had his best spring as a Cub, meaning he seems to have his emotions in check and wants to live up to the hope of his 8-0 finish to 2010. If he and Ryan Dempster can team with Matt Garza and Randy Wells can be more like his rookie self than his sophomore self, this can be one of the better pitching staffs in the National League.
What really makes them dangerous, though, is their minor league system.
With an excess of talent in some positions that are already pretty young (Wellington Castillo, Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, plus young pitchers Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter), this is a team that may be able to acquire any available player in baseball come July. And if they find themselves within five games of the division or the Wild Card, Jim Hendry will pull the trigger. It's what he does.
Of course, they're still the Cubs, so who knows...
Pittsburgh Pirates: Good Pitching + Decent Lineup = Division Title?
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In a word, NO. But they'll be closer this year than last.
Andrew McCutcheon has the looks of a star in the making and shows the signs of being a five-tool player that the Pirates can build around. Jose Tabata could develop into a top of the order guy and table setter for Garret Atkins, McCutcheon and Lyle Overbay. But the pitching is still a major concern and there doesn't seem to be a consistent stopper in the rotation, though their bullpen has a chance to be much improved.
The real question is whether or not they can resist moving their tradeable pieces in anticipation of being able to contend in 2013 or 2014.
Houston Astros: Remember When They Contended Every Year?
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Almost certainly not this year, though.
The Astros have made it pretty clear that this is a rebuilding year. J.A. Happ would appear to be the centerpiece pitcher of the future and the hope is that they can surround him with enough talent to contend again in a few years. While a few of their young players have had excellent springs—Brett Wallace at first base specifically, and the outfield is certainly formidable with Hunter Pence, speedster Michael Bourn, and Carlos Lee—it seems hard to believe that this team will be able to avoid the inevitable last place finish they seem headed for.
The only question really is how many of their young players fit into their future plans, and could Pence or Bourn follow Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman out the door?
Your 2011 N.L. Central Champions??????????????
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The Reds would seem to have the best team and the inside track to repeat, but the Cubs did just enough this summer.
Carlos Pena will probably be lucky to hit .250 on the season, but he might hit 45 home runs with that short porch in right field.
Matt Garza is a fly-ball pitcher in a park that punishes the fly-ball pitcher in June and July, but rewards them in April, May and September.
Aramis Ramirez is in his free agent season and looking to prove 2010 was an aberration.
Plus, the last two Cubs managers have made it to the postseason in their first year. It would seem that the signs are pointing to another season of heartbreak for the Cubs as they wait until September to break your hearts.
Of course they could just as easily be out of contention in May.
