Chad Ochocinco & 12 Other NFL Veterans Facing Huge Production Declines in 2011
Chad Ochocinco needs to continually find new ways to keep his name in the news, because if he ever stops for a second, he will realize that his star in the NFL is one that is starting to fade away with each passing year.
From trying out for a soccer team, to Dancing With the Stars, to having his own reality television show with Terrell Owens, Ochocinco is on a mission to keep his name and face in the public eye. If only he got along with his head coach and his quarterback, life would be grand.
Alas, Ochocinco is in a precarious position of facing a major production drop in the 2011 season. But Chad is not alone, as we will also try to identify some company for him. We present a dozen other long-standing NFL veterans who are on the verge of seeing their personal production drop significantly in the 2011 season. Assuming that there is a 2011 season, that is.
Willis McGahee: Baltimore Ravens Running Back
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It might seem hard to imagine, but Willis McGahee is set to enter his ninth NFL season. Unfortunately, the best days of that career are far behind him and his production continues to fade away.
He topped 1,200 rushing yards twice during his final three years with the Buffalo Bills, and he was then traded to the Baltimore Ravens in 2007. His last four years of rushing yards illustrates how his game is in decline: 1,207, 671, 544 and 380.
His total yards as a pass receiver coming out of the backfield are in a similar decline mode: 237, 173, 85 and 55. Average yards per catch trend in the same way: 7.2, 5.7, to 3.9 last year.
The first downs he has generated running the ball have dropped from 56, 34, 28 to 18 last year. In 2009 he averaged five yards per rush, and last year it was 3.8.
To top it all off, he only had 100 carries last season and fumbled the ball twice in his 100 carries. The Ravens lost the ball both times, adding further insult to injury.
Tony Gonzalez: Atlanta Falcons Tight End
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As painful as this is to suggest, how much longer before the wheels come off of Tony Gonzalez and his long-standing career? Gonzalez is one of my personal favorite players as a tight end, and he has stood for being among the very best during his 14-year tenure in the NFL.
Gonzalez is now 35 years old and Father Time is stating to catch up with him. Examples of the production decline have already been trending in the wrong direction.
Despite playing in all 16 games over the past four seasons, his yardage totals are: 1,172, 1,058, 867, 656. That is almost half of what he did just four years ago. The total of 656 was his personal lowest total since 1998.
His total number of receptions has also dropped, going from 99, 96, 83 to 70.
If you need further proof, 2010 was the first time in his career that his average yardage per catch dropped below 10 yards. He is becoming less of a downfield threat and more of a short-yardage type of receiver. The end can't be too far down the road for this once-mighty warrior.
Donald Driver: Green Bay Packers Wide Receiver
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Donald Driver has enjoyed a long and productive NFL career. The Green Bay Packers wide receiver is now 36 years old and will be coming into his 13th season in the NFL.
From the years 2002-2009, Driver amassed seven 1,000-plus receiving yardage seasons out of that eight-year stretch. But 2010 saw the production for Driver drop across the board at an alarming rate.
Driver played in 15 regular-season games last year for Green Bay. Consider the following numbers: His yardage dropped from 1,061 to 565. His average yards per catch dropped from 15.2 to 11.1. The catches he made that resulted in first downs went from 49 to 29.
Then you look at the number of catches. In the past five years, his reception totals have gone from 92, 82, 74, 70 to 51 last year. Slowly but surely, he is becoming less and less of a factor in the Packers' passing attack.
In 2010, Driver finished fourth in receiving yards for the Packers, as he was bested by Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jordy Nelson. At least Driver will be able to look forward to receiving a NFL Super Bowl ring. Once he gets that, he will realize that all of the years of wear and tear were worth the sacrifice.
But with all of the options available to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, it was probably just a matter of time until his production had to eventually start dropping off.
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Lee Evans: Buffalo Bills Wide Receiver
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Lee Evans has been considered to be the Buffalo Bills' No. 1 receiver for many years. Evans has now entered his 30s, and he is watching younger receivers like Steve Johnson come in and take over his reign as the leading Bills receiver.
The 2006 season represents the high-water mark for Evans, when he came up with 82 catches for 1,292 yards. Since then, his yardage totals have dropped from 1,292, 849, 1,017, 612 and finally down to a career-low 578 last year.
His reception totals have also been dropping, from 82, 55, 63, 44 to 37, which again was a career low.
Evans still has some talent and he has been durable, as he has played in every Bills game since he joined the team, except for the final three games of the 2010 season when he got hurt and was placed on injured reserve to end the season.
Bills fans have observed that Evans is starting to have a tougher time shaking off press coverage at the line of scrimmage and he also tends not to fight to break up bad passes that become interceptions. If he tried to be more of a defensive back when he realized that there was no way to catch the ball, the Bills wouldn't have given up 21 interceptions last year.
Chan Gailey went on record as saying that he needs to get Evans more involved in underneath routes, meaning that he will become less of a home-run threat than before, another sign that his production will continue to drop.
Jake Delhomme: Cleveland Browns Quarterback
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Jake Delhomme has completed 12 seasons in the NFL, but the end appears to be right around the corner.
Delhomme began 2010 as the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, but eventually the job was taken over by Colt McCoy, and the rookie appears to have won the starting job for next year already.
Delhomme had a nice run as the Carolina Panthers quarterback, leading them to the Super Bowl. During his most productive years, 2003-2008, Delhomme generated a QB rating that was consistently in the 80s, ranging from a low of 80.6 to a high of 88.1.
Then the bottom dropped out when he hit 2009. He threw eight touchdowns compared to 18 interceptions in his last year in Carolina, which resulted in a QB passer rating of 59.4. In his first year in Cleveland, he once again had an abysmal ratio of two touchdowns to seven interceptions, with a passer rating of 63.4.
Delhomme might feel like he is still a starting quarterback, but his production says otherwise.
Ricky Williams: Miami Dolphins Running Back
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Miami Dolphins running back Ricky Williams is now 33 years old. Williams has been a horse over the span of his 10-year NFL career.
Williams turned in an impressive four-year stretch from 2000-2003, when he gained at least 1,000 yards in four-straight years. From 2004 through now, he has only had one more 1,000-yard season, which was 2009, when he exploded for 1,121 yards. From 2006-2010, his rushing totals have been 743, 15, 659, 1,121 and then 673, which is what he did last year.
He is clearly more of a threat as a rusher than a receiver. He caught the ball 35 times for 264 yards in 2009, but those numbers went down to 19 catches for 141 yards last year.
Other signs that he is being phased out: His rushing attempts dropped last year from 241 to 159; touchdowns dropped from 11 to two; first downs gained via rush dropped from 55 to 26; and he has fumbled four times in each of the past three seasons.
As Williams and his partner Ronnie Brown are both free agents, it is very possible that some new blood will be coming to the Dolphins backfield. As for Williams, his fans can point to the average of 4.2 yards per rush and say that he still has something to offer. But when you look at the annual totals for the past five years, it appears that he is not the running back that he used to be.
Randy Moss: Tennessee Titans Wide Receiver
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What a strange year 2010 was for Tennessee Titans wide receiver Randy Moss. The prolific wide receiver looked like he was ready for the loony bin at times last season, especially when he was seen paying tribute to the New England Patriots while he was a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Some homecoming party in Minneapolis. Not!
Moss is now 34 years old. He is entering his 14th year in the league, but will lucky No. 13 be remembered as the season when he hit the wall? Moss has turned in 10 1,000-plus receiving yard campaigns and had three-straight 1,000-plus yard years from 2007-2009.
But 2010 was just a bizarre year. Appearing in all 16 games, he went from 1,264 yards in catches down to 393 and 13 touchdown catches down to five. He had turned in at least two straight years of a long play of at least 70 yards. Last year his longest catch was 37. He went from 83 catches in 2009 down to 28.
What is his role going to be in 2011? Not sure, but the evidence is hard to ignore. It appears that Randy Moss' days of being a prolific receiver are history.
Hines Ward: Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver
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Just like Randy Moss, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward is 35 years old and entering his 14th season in the NFL. Just like Moss, Ward saw his 2010 production numbers drop across the board, and one has to wonder if the physical abuse he has taken over the years is starting to get the best of him.
As recently as 2008 and 2009, Ward was still cranking out over 1,000 receiving yards. His totals went from 1,043 to 1,167, then down to 755 last year. For those three years, his catches went from 81 to 95, and then only 59 last year. Over the last three years, his touchdowns have been dropping from seven to six to five last year.
It is not just the receptions. Ward historically was counted on to be involved in the running game as well. He would get at least 10 rushes on reverses a year from 2001-2003, but those numbers gradually declined as well. Now he has only been involved in two rushes over the last three seasons. He is just not the same athlete that he once was.
There was the appearance on Dancing With The Stars as a nice diversion for Ward. But it seems like he is becoming more outspoken as he gets older, and he is turning into a cranky, old veteran. With the influx of young wide receivers on the Steelers roster, it is not hard to envision that the Steelers are grooming Ward's replacements.
Clinton Portis: Free Agent Running Back
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Clinton Portis is looking to enter his 10th year in the NFL. The ex-Washington Redskins running back had a great stretch run from 2002-2008. During those seven years, he turned in six different rushing totals of at least 1,000-plus yard seasons.
But from 2009 on, it is looking like the wear and tear of running the ball and getting pounded by NFL defenses is taking a toll on his body. Portis saw his production in the last four years go from 1,262 to 1,487 to 494 and then 227 last year. His touchdowns went from 11 to nine to one and then two. Rushing attempts have gone from 325 to 342 down to 124 and 54 last year.
Receiving yards have dropped off from 389 to 218 to 57 and then 55 last year.
It was nice to see Portis reunited with old head coach Mike Shanahan, but the spark that the two of them shared in Denver is not the same thing in Washington. Portis has been released by the Redskins since the 2010 season ended and is now a free agent. Can the end be that far away?
LaDainian Tomlinson: New York Jets Running Back
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At 31 years of age, New York Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson is looking to enter his 11th season in the NFL. For the vast majority of those years, Tomlinson was a feared rusher, as he turned in eight-straight 1,000-yard seasons as a member of the San Diego Chargers.
But over the years, all of the wear and tear of creating those accomplishments is starting to diminish his skills. You look at his production last year and see 914 yards gained and a 4.2 yards per carry, and think that he is still doing pretty good. On the surface, you would think so. But if we dig a little bit deeper, we see the following as a sign that all is not well:
His longest run from scrimmage in the past five years has dropped from 85 yards, to 49 to 45 to 36 and then 31 yards last year. During those five years, his rushing totals have dropped from 1,815, 1,474, 1,110, 730, to 914 last year.
Tomlinson's rush attempts in the last five years have gone from 348, 315, 292, 223, to 219 last year. His touchdowns in the last five years are like this: 28, 15, 11, 12 to six last year.
He brings a veteran presence to the Jets and he was seen trying to rally the team during the past year. His role may eventually become a third-down back or giving the starters a blow on a rotational basis, but the days of being the featured lead back seem to be winding to a close.
Thomas Jones: Kansas City Chiefs Running Back
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Kansas City Chiefs running back Thomas Jones is 32 years old and will be entering his 12th year in the NFL. Although Jones never did crack the 1,000-yard barrier in his first five years in the league, he did manage to crank out five-straight 1,000-yard seasons as a member of the Bears and Jets from 2005-2009.
His first year in Kansas City saw that streak stop as he gained 896 yards last season. If you take a closer look at his numbers, you will see that his game is starting to drop off. His average yards gained per rush attempt in the past three years have gone from 4.5, to 4.2 to 3.7 last year. His touchdowns went from 13 and 14 down to six. His first downs went from 63, 64, down to 39 last year.
His reception totals in the last three years went from 36 to 10 to 14, which adds more proof that his skills are starting to fade. With the emergence of Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones will probably continue to see a drop in his personal production.
Carson Palmer: Cincinnati Bengals Quarterback
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Carson Palmer has seen enough. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback has backed himself into a corner, as he has taken a stand and vowed to never return to Cincinnati wearing a Bengals uniform. Tired of losing, poor management and a bunch of wide receivers that act like prima donnas, Palmer has thrown his arms up in the air and claimed: "I just can't take it anymore."
Will Palmer play in 2011? Where will he play if he does? Or have we seen the last of Carson Palmer in the NFL?
From a performance standpoint, Palmer threw a career-high 586 passing attempts in 2010. In his eight-year career, it is interesting to note that he has never thrown that many passes before. Palmer was only 30 yards shy of turning in a 4,000 passing-yard season in 2010. His 82.4 passer rating was reasonable and throwing for 26 touchdowns was fine too, as was a completion percentage of 61.8 percent.
So why is he on this list you ask? Let's explore some other stats. His ratio of 26 touchdowns to 20 interceptions was not very good at all. His average yards per attempt was down to 6.8, which ranked him 20th in the NFL. The 28 sacks weren't that many, but the statistic that matters the most is the win-loss record. A season of 4-12 is very hard to take.
The 2011 season will be the ninth of Palmer's NFL career. Will he resurface in Cincinnati, or will some NFL team make an offer to the Bengals that can't be refused? This figures to be one of the more interesting situations to emerge as we approach the 2011 season.
Chad Ochocinco: Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receiver
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What is Chad Ochocinco? Is he a football star, is he a dancer or is he a budding soccer star? One thing he may not be is a Cincinnati Bengal for much longer. Ochocinco continues to run his mouth, and he has taken turns bad-mouthing Carson Palmer to Marvin Lewis. He is doing his best to make sure he doesn't wear a Bengals uniform for much longer either.
Ochocinco is 33 years old. He is about to enter his 11th NFL season. During his career, Ochocinco turned in six-straight years of at least 1,000 yards in receptions from 2002-2007. From 2008 to present, his yardage totals have been 540, 1,047 and 831.
His touchdowns during the past three years have dropped down from four to nine and then four again last year. His receptions during the 1,000-yard seasons were typically in the 87 to 97 range. The last three years have been 53, 72 and then 67 last year. Traditionally, he was usually good for at least one catch of 70 yards or longer. His longest catch in the last three years has been 26 yards, then 50 and then 42 yards last year.
Clearly, Ochocinco is not the same player that he used to be. If the diversions he creates and the attention he brings to himself keep him happy, that is great. But in terms of being a top talent, the arrogance should be replaced with trying to figure out what his next career should be. It seems he is already getting a head start on figuring that out.
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