NFL Draft 2011: 29 Bold Predictions with Only a Month Remaining Until Draft Day
We are only four short weeks and three days away from the 2011 NFL Draft. That's 31 sleeps for those counting.
With the draft getting so close (we can almost taste it), it's time to take a look at our bold predictions for the 2011 lottery.
Which quarterbacks are locked in to the top five? Which defensive tackle is sliding out of the top 10 and how many quarterbacks will be drafted in Round 2? We know, and now you can too.
Cam Newton Will Be Drafted in the Top 5
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While we are cooling on the idea that Cam Newton will be the first-pick overall, there is no way Newton makes it past Buffalo, Cincinnati and Arizona.
There are four teams in the top five that need a quarterback, and that fifth team is the Denver Broncos, a team that has been eye-balling all of the draft's top quarterbacks this offseason.
Newton may not be drafted by one of the teams currently sitting in the top five, as there are expected to be a flurry of trades on draft day.
Blaine Gabbert Will Be Drafted in the Top 5
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Much like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert will not have to wait long to hear his named called on draft day.
If we had to make a bold prediction about Gabbert's future home, we would say it is with the Arizona Cardinals, a team that currently holds the No. 5 pick overall.
Jake Locker Will Be the 3rd Quarterback Drafted
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If Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert are locks to go in the top five, where does the draft's No. 3 quarterback end up?
Jake Locker, like his fellow quarterbacks, will not be sitting long in the green room at Radio City Music Hall.
Locker will hear his name called no later than pick No. 16 to Jacksonville.
San Francisco, Tennessee, Washington, Minnesota and Miami are all rumored to be interested in Locker.
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Ryan Mallett Will Be Drafted in Round 2
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Ryan Mallett may have the best arm in this draft, but he also has the worst attitude among quarterbacks.
Labeled with what we like to call Cutler/Leaf Syndrome, Mallett's demeanor on the field is poor. He's too easily frustrated and comes across as brash and entitled in interviews.
Peter King reported this morning that: "Some teams, including one with a major quarterback need, are deathly afraid of all the off-field noise about Mallett. Much of it is unsubstantiated, but I was read a report by a personnel man on Mallett the other day, and it was scathing."
We agree, Peter.
Nick Fairley Will Fall out of the Top 10
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Nick Fairley was at one point our top overall player. That was a rash decision.
Fairley dominated at a junior college before having one average season at Auburn and then breaking out in 2010. The tape on Fairley's 2010 season is damn good, but his 2009 film looks like a different player.
Which Nick Fairley are NFL teams getting?
That one question will push Fairley out of the top 10.
The Bills Will Draft Von Miller or Patrick Peterson
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The Bills hold the No. 3 pick in the draft and plan to select the highest-rated defensive player available.
This might be Marcell Dareus, but we have a feeling he will be drafted by either Carolina or Denver. This leaves Buffalo with Patrick Peterson or Von Miller to choose from.
Buffalo is better at cornerback than outside linebacker, but Peterson is a once-in-a-decade talent. He will have the Bills debating this pick right up until the clock expires.
The 49ers Will Draft Von Miller or Patrick Peterson
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With the seventh pick overall, the 49ers will sit and wait to see which player the Bills do not select at No. 3 overall. If the Bills take Patrick Peterson, the 49ers will be happy to take Von Miller. And vice versa.
Many mock drafts have Arizona selecting Von Miller, which we do think possible. However, Arizona is in love with Blaine Gabbert, too.
Tyron Smith Will Be the 1st Offensive Tackle Drafted
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Whether it is by the Minnesota Vikings or Detroit Lions, Tyron Smith will find himself as the first offensive tackle drafted on April 28th.
Smith is quickly moving up most draft boards and establishing himself as the top overall tackle on our board.
Da'Quan Bowers Will Be Removed from Half the Teams' Draft Boards
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Da'Quan Bowers has a chance to redeem himself on April 1st with a workout to show NFL teams his knee is 100-percent healthy.
Whether he checks out fine or not, there will be NFL teams that completely remove Bowers from their draft boards.
Bowers was a one-year wonder at Clemson. Couple that with his injury history and you have a player whose name is coming off the board.
Corey Liuget Will Be Drafted in the 1st Round
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If you are looking for a surprise player to be drafted in the first round, consider Illinois defensive tackle Corey Liuget.
An unknown before the Texas Bowl, Liuget has risen way up draft boards this offseason with solid workouts.
His fit as a 4-3 defensive tackle or 3-4 defensive end makes him very enticing to clubs like the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens.
Muhammad Wilkerson Will Also Be Drafted in the 1st Round
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If Corey Liuget is too well known for your first-round shocker, look at Temple's Muhammad Wilkerson.
Wilkerson is your ideal 3-4 defensive end and he has been generating interest from the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers.
Baylor's Phil Taylor Will Also Be a 1st Rounder
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Here is one final first-round surprise for you: Baylor's Phil Taylor.
Taylor is the preeminent nose tackle in this 2011 NFL Draft class. His ability to plug holes and hold up against a double team will make him a safe pick for any 3-4 defense in Round 1.
Much like Logan Mankins (OG, Patriots) before him, Taylor is a safe pick. He's not flashy and does not play a sexy position, but he'll be a 10-year contributor.
No Running Backs Will Be Drafted in the Top 14
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Not Mikel Leshoure, not Mark Ingram, not one running back will be drafted in the first 14 picks.
Running backs simply are not valued like they used to be. Even the Miami Dolphins, the team with the most clear-cut need at running back, may not pull the trigger in Round 1.
We could see the first running back coming off the board at the end of Round 1, especially if Miami trades back.
Only Two Receivers Will Be Drafted in the 1st Round
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Two wide receivers in this year's class grade out as top 10 picks. The rest show up in Round 2.
Georgia's A.J. Green and Alabama's Julio Jones figure to be top 14 picks in the April draft. Once they are off the board, there could be a long drought until the next wide receiver is taken.
The New England Patriots might look for a receiver at No. 28, but they do not seem likely to pass on needs at defensive end, outside linebacker and the offensive line for a receiver.
Atlanta Will Draft a Defensive End in Round 1
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The Atlanta Falcons posted the second-best record in the NFL last season, but came up short in the playoffs. To return to the playoffs in 2011 with a chance to win a Super Bowl, the Falcons must get better on the defensive line.
John Abraham had an All-Pro season in 2010, but his age is a concern and the team cannot expect another 14-sack season from him in 2011.
The Falcons would love to find Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith or Ryan Kerrigan on the board when they pick at No. 27 overall.
Jacksonville Will Draft a Quarterback in the 1st 3 Rounds
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At 33 years old, David Garrard is nearing the end of his NFL career. The Jaguars also would not mind upgrading over Garrard if possible.
Drafting a quarterback at some point early on in the draft makes a ton of sense for Jacksonville. They can allow the player to sit behind Garrard for one or two seasons and learn the game, then let the player start after becoming acclimated to the NFL.
Hey, it worked for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
New England, Indianapolis and Green Bay Will Draft Quarterbacks
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Tom Brady will turn 34 before the 2011 season begins. Peyton Manning just turned 35. Aaron Rodgers' backup, Matt Flynn, is a free agent next year.
The Patriots like what they have in Brian Hoyer, but as they proved with Matt Cassel, they will look to draft a young quarterback every two-to-three years to develop. It's time.
Manning experienced his worst season since his rookie year and the Colts front office has to be afraid of the future in Indianapolis without Manning.
Rodgers is young, but his No. 1 backup is a free agent after next year and is very likely to be traded.
Alabama Quarterback Greg McElroy Will Be the Surprise of Round 3
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It would not surprise us at all to see the New England Patriots or Indianapolis Colts use a third-round pick on the Alabama gunslinger.
McElroy fits those offensive philosophies well, he is a smart player and he could benefit from learning the ropes behind two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever lace up cleats.
McElroy may not end up in New England or Indianapolis, but we are confident in predicting he will be drafted in the third round.
Jonathan Baldwin and Jimmy Smith Will See Draft Day Plunges
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Attitude is becoming a more important trait when scouting players. Colorado's Jimmy Smith and Pitt receiver Jonathan Baldwin rank among the worst in terms of attitude and character.
Both players are immensely talented. Smith could be drafted as high as the top 15 if it were not for his penchant for running his mouth.
Baldwin threw his quarterback under the bus before Pitt's bowl game and trashed his coaching staff before declaring for the 2011 NFL Draft.
NFL teams love talent, but they also know the dangers of putting a volatile player in the locker room.
Six Offensive Linemen Will Be Taken in the 1st Round
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Tyron Smith. Gabe Carimi. Anthony Castonzo. Nate Solder. Derek Sherrod. Mike Pouncey.
That's six offensive linemen all-but guaranteed to hear their names called in the first round.
With so many teams needing help at offensive tackle, guard and center, we expect a similar run on offensive linemen to start at the beginning of Round 2.
Danny Watkins Will Be a New England Patriot
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Danny Watkins fits everything Bill Belichick and company preach about being a Patriot.
He's tough, smart and versatile. At 26 years old, Watkins is also more mature than most of the players available in this draft.
Watkins isn't only ideal for New England's system. The Patriots also need a versatile guard/tackle player to replace Matt Light, Logan Mankins and/or Stephen Neal on their depth chart.
Notre Dame Tight End Kyle Rudolph Will Be a Denver Bronco
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The Denver Broncos hold two picks in the second round thanks to the trade that sent wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the Miami Dolphins.
With one of those picks, the Broncos will draft Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph.
Denver needs a tight end, and with two picks in the second round, they can reach slightly for Rudolph and still pick up another player with the selection sent to them by Miami.
Marvin Austin and Bruce Carter Will Be Early 2nd-Round Picks
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Marvin Austin missed the entire 2010 season after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA for receiving improper benefits from an agent.
Bruce Carter's season ended early with a torn ACL.
Both Tar Heels are working to rehab this offseason—Carter his knee and Austin his image.
Don't let either issue worry you. Carter and Austin would both be top 10 talents had they played the entire season.
Four Quarterbacks Will Be Drafted in Round 2
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You read that right.
Four quarterbacks will be drafted in Round 2. Even more bold, they will be drafted in the top 15 picks of Round 2.
Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallett and Colin Kaepernick will all hear their names called on Friday night.
One more note to add here: We like the second round quarterbacks better than the over-hyped first-rounders.
Both Patrick Peterson and A.J. Green Will Fall out of the Top 5
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We previously predicted the Bills would look at Patrick Peterson with the No. 3 overall pick. We also think Buffalo will pass on Peterson for Von Miller.
The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to look at A.J. Green at No. 3 overall, but they also like Julio Jones and have pressing needs at defensive end and quarterback.
This all adds up to the draft's two most exciting players falling out of the top five picks.
Quarterback Josh Portis from California (Penn.) Will Be Drafted
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In 2005, Josh Portis was a highly-touted prep player who committed to Florida. In his one season there, he saw action in six games.
Portis transferred to Maryland in 2006 and he was required by NCAA rules to sit out for a season.
In 2007, he was caught cheating on an exam and suspended for the season under the university's honor code policy.
In 2008, Portis mostly substituted for starting quarterback Chris Turner for one option play at a time.
In early 2009, it was announced that Portis would transfer to California University of Pennsylvania in the spring semester. Portis led the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference with 18 touchdown passes, a passer rating of 179.4, and took the Vulcans to their fifth-straight PSAC West Championship.
In 2010, Portis was charged with theft, receiving stolen property and fraud for using a stolen credit card at a mall near Pittsburgh.
All that and Portis will still be drafted. Talent truly wins out over character.
Noel Devine and Jacquizz Rodgers Will Be Drafted in the 7th Round
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Two of college football's most exciting players will have a long, long weekend as they wait to hear their names called.
Noel Devine and Jacquizz Rodgers rank as two of the better running backs in the nation, but they also came up as the smallest runners at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Both are talented, and dynamic when the ball is in their hands. But neither player has the bulk to hold up over the course of an NFL season.
Boston College Star Mark Herzlich Is a 5th Round Pick or Later
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We feel for Mark Herlzich. Anyone who can beat cancer and play football with a steel rod in their leg deserves our respect and well wishes.
We do not believe in Mark Herzlich as an NFL linebacker.
Cancer aside, Herzlich is simply not very fast. Before missing the 2009 season, he looked like a top 15 pick. Today he looks like a washed-up outside linebacker who has to rely on instincts only and will routinely be beaten to the edge.
Villanova Lineman Ben Ijalana Will Be the 1st Small Schooler Drafted
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Guys like Edmund Gates (WR, Abilene Christian) and Taiwan Jones (RB, Eastern Washington) are climbing up boards and will be third-to-fourth rounders at worst. We really like Kenrick Ellis (DT, Hampton), but his character concerns are a little too much for our taste early in the draft.
Who do we feel safe with drafting first from a small school? Villanova's Ben Ijalana is a terrific guard/tackle prospect with no character concerns, no injuries to worry about and the ideal body type for the NFL.
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