2010 "old" stats: 33 starts, 10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
2010 "new" stats: .319 BABIP, 68.8 LOB%
Burnett frustrated Yankee fans last season with his inconsistency, and when he was consistent, he was consistently bad. There are several signs pointing toward a return to normal for Burnett this season, however, and the Yankees will need him to be much better to make up for a lack of starting pitching depth.
Looking at Burnett's past four seasons, his BABIP has gone back and forth between under and over the league average, from .261 in 2007 to .314 in 2008 to .295 in 2009 to .319 in 2010. So if that trend continues, Burnett should fall back below .300 in 2011.
Burnett hadn't had a season with an LOB percent lower than 70 since 2000, so that number should definitely pick up a few percentage points this season with the potential to skyrocket back toward 75.
His HR/FB and strikeout rate should also see some improvement over last season. His strikeout rate was the lowest it has been since 2001 and, judging by spring training performance, should bounce back at least a little in 2011.
2011 projection: 14-8, 4.07 ERA, 1.37 WHIP