Buck Showalter Blasts Derek Jeter, Boston Red Sox: Are the Orioles in Trouble?
Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter made some interesting remarks last week about his team's division rivals, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. In a sense, Showalter called out Derek Jeter for "jumping back from balls just off the plate" and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein for his payroll management. Call me crazy, but it sounds as though something might not be right in Oriole-town.
"I’d like to see how smart Theo Epstein is with the Tampa Bay payroll,” he said. “You got Carl Crawford ’cause you paid more than anyone else, and that’s what makes you smarter? That’s why I like whipping their butt. It’s great, knowing those guys with the $205 million payroll are saying, ‘How the hell are they beating us?’"
Showalter's remarks are certainly shocking. The bigger question is, why? Is he trying to fire up his team, or he is he just airing out his true frustrations with the two top teams in the American League because he feels the Orioles are in trouble?
Let's analyze the Baltimore Orioles starting lineup and compare it with those of New York and Boston, and see just how well the Birds can do in 2011.
Catcher: Matt Wieters
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The Yankees have Russell Martin and the Red Sox have Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Two catchers who are decent players in their own way, but still incomparable to Baltimore's Matt Wieters.
Ever since he was drafted fifth-overall in 2007, Wieters has been touted as the next great catcher in baseball. He is a switch hitter with a great arm and since making his debut in 2009, has shown he can compete with the big boys. His average took a dip in 2010 (.249, down from .288 in 2009), but he showed more patience towards the end of the season and is due for a breakout year in 2011.
He hit 11 home runs in 2010, and hopefully we will see his full power come out this season.
Edge: Baltimore
First Base: Derrek Lee
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This offseason, Baltimore's big free agency splash was landing Derrek Lee. The big first baseman was signed to a one-year deal, and many view this season as a make or break year for him. Injuries deprived him of his power and hitting for average abilities last year, as he batted .260 with 19 home runs and 80 RBI with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves.
Even though Lee is due a bounce-back year, the Orioles are still at a great disadvantage here. The Red Sox have Adrian Gonzalez and the Yankees have the dangerous switch hitter, Mark Teixeira. Yes, Lee is sure to see better power numbers with the short porch in left field at Camden Yards, but age will still catch up with him and he will spend an excessive amount of time on the trainer's table.
Edge: Boston
Second Base: Brian Roberts
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2010 was basically a disappointment for Brian Roberts. He missed most of the season with back problems, and only played in 59 games. Still, he was effective in those games as he posted a .278 batting average with four home runs and 15 RBI, along with 12 steals.
Roberts missed most of spring training this year with the same back trouble, but has been effective in recent games. That being said, he should be ready to go come Opening Day.
Still, the Orioles are once again at a disadvantage. Boston has diminutive wonder Dustin Pedroia at second base, and the Yankees have the even more dangerous Robinson Cano, who seems to improve his game season after season. Even if Roberts is at 100 percent all year long, he's still nothing compared to these two.
Edge: New York
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy
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J.J. Hardy will turn 29 this season, and the best birthday gift for him would be regaining the power he had with the Milwaukee Brewers some seasons ago. He hit 26 and 24 home runs in 2007 and 2008, batting .277 and .283 in each of those seasons. In 2009, however, both power and average disappeared, as he hit only 11 home runs with a less than average .229 batting average before being released.
He saw slight improvement with the Minnesota Twins last year as he batted .268, but a wrist injury sapped his power and he finished the season with only six home runs. Thus, 2011 will be a make or break year for him.
Hardy should be fine numbers-wise if he stays healthy, but once again, the Orioles will be at a disadvantage. The Red Sox aren't much better at shortstop with Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie, but the Yankees have Derek Jeter. Jeter also had an off 2010, but will be back full force in 2011 as he becomes the first Yankee to reach 3,000 hits.
Edge: New York
Third Base: Mark Reynolds
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Based on power numbers alone, Mark Reynolds is a manager's dream. After his breakout 2009 (.260 average, 44 home runs, 102 RBI), many thought he had finally reached his full potential. Then, he horribly regressed in 2010. He had 32 home runs and 85 RBI, but a .198 batting average as well as striking out 211 times.
The fact is, Reynolds is going to be extremely hit or miss in the American League. In his four big league seasons, he has struck out a total of 767 times. That's an average of 196 strikeouts a season. In Buck Showalter's patience-first offense, that just isn't going to fly.
Throw in Boston's Kevin Youkilis and New York's Alex Rodriguez, and it's pretty clear who wins this battle.
Edge: New York
Left Field: Luke Scott
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Luke Scott is a good lefty power bat in the Baltimore lineup. He had a solid 2010 in which he batted .284 with 27 home runs and 72 RBI, and all signs indicate he should be fine in 2011. Still, Baltimore is once again at a disadvantage.
The Yankees have the pesky Brett Gardner, who wears down pitchers both at the plate and on the base paths. In Boston, the Red Sox have the very man Showalter criticized Theo Epstein over, Carl Crawford. Take a look at the three left fielders together, and it's obvious who wins this round.
Edge: Boston
Center Field: Adam Jones
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Adam Jones is 25-years-old and a solid player who plays a good center field. The only criticism against him is that many believe he has peaked already. He batted .277 with 19 home runs and 70 RBI in 2009 (which was an off year for him as he only played in 119 games), and .284 with 19 home runs and 69 RBI in 2010 (149 games). This year, fans and experts are waiting for him to break out.
If Jones is patient, he will have his first breakout season. He has speed, so hopefully it will be used.
His counterparts in Boston and New York are Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury, both of whom are dangerous in their own way. The former has great power to go with decent speed, while the latter is dangerous on the base paths yet coming back from an injury-riddled 2010. I hate to say it, but this position is just too close to call.
Edge: Three-way Draw
Right Field: Nick Markakis
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Nick Markakis is a solid young outfielder who the Orioles managed to sign to a long-term extension before the 2009 season. Over his five years with the team, he has been solid offensively with a .298 career average. Yet, his home run totals have dropped each of the past four seasons.
Overall, the lack of power shouldn't be a big concern since Markakis still manages to get on base regularly. Still, if the team wants a shot at contending in the division, the man known as "Nick The Stick" must up the power if he wants to outshine J.D. Drew and Nick Swisher.
Edge: New York
Designated Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero
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The Orioles' other big free agency signing this offseason was inking Vladimir Guerrero to a one-year deal shortly before spring training began. The man had a total comeback year with the Texas Rangers in 2010, batting .300 with 29 home runs and 115 RBI. As fun as Vlad is to watch, it cannot be denied that those numbers are inflated thanks to playing in a hitter's park in Arlington for a full season.
Chances are he will still be effective at the plate in 2011, but fans shouldn't expect him to repeat his success from 2010. Even if he does, the Orioles are still lagging behind at this position as Boston has the ever dangerous David "Big Papi" Ortiz.
Edge: Boston
Starting Rotation
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As of now, the Orioles starting rotation looks like this:
Jeremy Guthrie: 11-14, 3.83 ERA, 119 SO, 1.16 WHIP
Brian Matusz (pictured at left): 10-12, 4.30 ERA, 143 SO, 1.34 WHIP
Justin Duchscherer: 2-1, 2.89 ERA, 18 SO, 1.36 WHIP; expected to start season on DL
Brad Bergesen: 8-12, 4.98 ERA, 81 SO, 1.44 WHIP
Jake Arrieta: 6-6, 4.66 ERA, 52 SO, 1.53 WHIP
As I've said before in recent MLB previews, nothing kills a young pitching staff more than the lack of a leadership. The only one close to a leader in Baltimore's rotation is Guthrie, and chances are he won't even be back next year. Combine that factor with the Yankees' dangerous starters and the Red Sox pitching being flat out ridiculous, and there is no way that the Orioles can contend in this battle.
Edge: Boston, New York finishing an extremely close second
Bullpen
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At this point, it looks like Baltimore's closing job will go to Kevin Gregg (pictured at left). If not Gregg, it will be Koji Uehara. Either way, Baltimore will have a solid option at closer.
However, the one factor that will hamper them is the bridge getting to the closer. The relievers filling that role now are the oft-injured Mike Gonzalez, the inconsistent Jim Johnson, a washed up Jeremy Accardo and the hit-or-miss Jason Berken. Unless the Orioles starters can consistently throw seven innings a start, it's going to be a long season.
Now let's have a look at the bullpens of Boston and New York. The Red Sox have the intimidating Jonathan Papelbon. The Yankees have the Brian Cashman-termed "lockdown" bullpen with Rafael Soriano and Mr. Automatic himself, Mariano Rivera. Need I say more?
Edge: New York
Manager
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Don't get me wrong. Even though I'm positive that his team won't contend this year and I think his remarks were way out of line, Buck Showalter is a great manager and a great fit for Baltimore. In 57 games last year with him at the helm, the Orioles went 34-23.
Still, compared to Boston skipper Terry Francona and the Yankees' Joe Girardi, Showalter is still playing catch-up. He has the most managerial experience out of these three, but has never been past the first round of the playoffs. The one year he was expected to take his team to the World Series (1994 with the Yankees), the infamous baseball strike kept that from happening.
Despite an average career record of 313-268, Showalter just does not have the talent to outmatch Francona and Girardi. Ultimately, while his presence in Baltimore will improve the team, it just won't happen this year.
Edge: Draw between Francona and Girardi
Final Thoughts
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That all being said, it's time to go back to the initial question: are the Baltimore Orioles in trouble this season? Trouble may be a bit of a strong word, but the answer is yes. Unlike their two divisional rivals, the Orioles did not make enough long-term moves for their future this past offseason, and ultimately, that is what will hurt them.
They will certainly show signs of improvement in 2011, but it will not be enough to keep up with the powerhouses that exist in Boston and New York. If anything, the Orioles will have a remote shot at a wild-card berth.
Final prediction: 76 wins, 3rd in the AL East; Boston and New York dog-fight for first place all season
